The Voice - Match preview Bradford City vs Sutton United Saturday 17th February 2024 3:00pm

EFL LEAGUE TWO FIXTURE #33

Saturday 17th February 2024 15:00
Bradford City (13th) vs Sutton United (24th)
University of Bradford Stadium (AKA Valley Parade)

22/23 & 23/24 Results:

12 Nov 2022: Sutton United 0 – 2 Bradford City
10 Apr 2023: Bradford City 3 – 1 Sutton United
28 Oct 2023: Sutton United 2 – 1 Bradford City

Head-to-Head Form: LWWWD (most recent result first)

Won: 3
Drawn: 1
Lost: 1

Current League Form:

Bradford City: WWDLD
Sutton United: LLDLD

SUTTON UNITED

Sutton United last won a football match on Boxing Day, when a 1-0 win over AFC Wimbledon ended a 6-game run of league fixtures without a win. Since then, they have embarked on a 10-game stretch without victory, exiting the FA Cup at the hands of Plymouth Argyle, and drawing 5 and losing 4 in the league.

Bizarrely, the season started on an incredible high. A 5-1 home win over Notts County defied the oddsmakers, and despite a despondent run in the immediate aftermath, Sutton still managed to edge past Cambridge United and Wycombe Wanderers in the EFL Cup, both very creditable results. Sadly for Sutton, such highlights have been few and far between. An FA Cup run saw them get through to the third round, but the hat proved kind to Sutton in the earlier round with the strugglers drawing AFC Fylde and Horsham in rounds one and two.

In the league that 5-1 win over Notts County is 1 of only 4 league wins this campaign. A 4-0 win over Walsall also defied all logic, as, in truth, did a 2-1 win over Bradford City, the other collector’s piece alongside their most recent win over AFC Wimbledon. But defeats and far and away Sutton United’s most frequent outcome, having lost a full 18 of their 32 league fixtures this season. 10 draws have left Sutton United 7 points behind 22nd place Colchester United, and things got even worse on Tuesday evening when a 2-1 defeat to Wrexham was coupled with a rare win for Forest Green Rovers at Barrow. Those circumstances saw Sutton United drop to the very bottom of the EFL pyramid, looking for all the world like relegation certainties.

All of that said, things have marginally improved in the second half of the season. While Sutton United were the whipping boys of League Two right up until November, since then, the U’s have become draw specialists. Manager Steve Morison, the former Millwall striker who once sunk Bradford City at Wembley, took over the reins on January 6 after a fruitful spell at non-league Hornchurch, and while the veteran striker still seeks his first win after 7 games in charge, his side have drawn 4 and lost 3 – suggesting he has at least instilled some a degree of resilience that has seen them lose only 1 of their last 3 away games.

That probably isn’t the kind of statistic Bradford City fans were hoping for, with Sutton United seen as a potentially ‘easier’ game – but draws at high-flying Mansfield Town (who just won 9-2 at Field Mill) and Walsall suggest Sutton United won’t be that easy to dismantle. A 1-0 defeat at Morecambe on Saturday afternoon saw Sutton United enjoy most of the possession and only slightly fewer shots on target (4:3 in Morecambe’s favour). In other words, don’t expect Sutton United to roll over.

They’re not necessarily guaranteed to come and park the bus, either. Tuesday evening’s 2-1 defeat at home to promotion aspirants Wrexham saw Sutton United again enjoying the majority of possession and more shots on goal/target than their opposition. Wrexham, realistically, executed a smash and grab with goals late in both halves, the winner coming on the 85th minute from Elliot Lee after Charlie Lakin had cancelled out Will Boyle’s opener. To beat Sutton United under Steve Morison, then, looks to require far more than just turning up.

Goalkeeper Dean Bouzanis has picked the ball out of the net 8 times in the last 6 games, a marked improvement on their overall tally of 62 goals conceded across 32 league outings. Where Sutton United could be relied upon to conceded over 2 goals on average around the Christmas period, all of that has now changed – and the shocking 8-0 defeat at Stockport County that came on December 16 hasn’t come close to being repeated.

Striker Harry Smith (7) is Sutton United’s top scorer, though Omari Patrick (5), Harry Beautyman (4) and Omar Sowunmi (3) are the only other players to have scored more than 2 league goals for the besieged strugglers this campaign. Going forward, Sutton United have been, predictably given their status as the bottom side, disappointing – yet they do average over a goal-a-game, with 35 league goals in 32 games. That’s only 5 goals fewer than Bradford City have managed, and factor in City scored 4 on Tuesday evening. Needless to say, neither side have proven particularly potent in front of goal.

All of that said, Steve Morison’s new charges are bottom of the table for a reason. Their away record is the worst in the division, with just 7 points accrued from 15 away days, and at home they’re also the third worst performing side. Away from home, Sutton United have a goal difference of -24 (compared to -3 at home), and slip just under the goal-a-game metric with 13 scored in those 15 away days.

While there is the chance Sutton United come, defend well, grab a goal, and try to spring a shock result (and do the double over Bradford City in the process), there is a reason they come into this fixture as 4/1 underdogs: they’re just not a side in the habit of winning, even if draws have become a fairly frequent outcome.

While their performance against Wrexham probably deserved better than a 2-1 defeat, converting chances and being ruthless in front of goal doesn’t seem to come naturally to Sutton United. Still, they haven’t looked bad lately.



Sutton United 1 – 2 Wrexham

BRADFORD CITY

A 4-0 home win over MK Dons seemed to come from nowhere on Tuesday evening, The Bantams ruthlessly demolishing their high-flying opposition to make it back-to-back wins over sides occupying the playoff spots and narrowing the gap between themselves and the top 7. While it’s still too early to seriously consider Bradford City promotion contenders, particularly as they remain in the bottom half of the table and have played a game more than most of their rivals, the uptick in form has been extremely welcome – particularly with the long-suffering home fans being treated to their first multiple goal-margin league victory at Valley Parade this season.

The result also means City have now won 3 of their last 4 in both league and cup, drawing the other, taking Graham Alexander’s record at Bradford City to 10 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats in all competitions. A good record from a reasonably substantial sample size.

Perhaps, then, it really is time for the Bradford City fanbase to start feeling more optimistic. While it’s true that 4 of those 10 wins have come in the EFL Trophy, a competition that isn’t always prioritised by opponents, there’s no question that a 50 % win percentage would be good enough for a top 7 finish if applied to league performance. Now is the time to do just that.

Victory over Sutton United would continue City’s momentum and quite possibly see them established in the top half of the table. Anything but a victory would be likely be considered demoralising among a fan base desperate for a taste of success this season, even if that same fanbase is prepared to overlook recent improvements in Sutton United’s performances.

Andy Cook makes it goals in back-to-back games after he made amends for a missed penalty against Wrexham by firing in a well-taken last minute winner at the Racecourse Ground. He was the third person on the scoresheet on Tuesday evening, with Matty Platt bagging the best of the goals with a powerful curling effort beating MK Dons goalkeeper Nathan Harness in Harness’ first league outing of the season. Calum Kavanagh would bag his first for his new club following a January switch from Middlesbrough, tapping home after Clark Oduor had struck the post. Cook then did the same with a rebounded effort from Alex Gilliead after good work from Brad Halliday to keep the ball alive and produce a dangerous cross, before Clark Oduor immediately made it 4 after Kavanagh’s shot was blocked immediately following a loose pass from Warren O’Hora.

Oduor takes his tally to 3, making him Bradford City’s joint third highest scorer this season alongside Alex Gilliead, while Cook advances to 13 league goals, and Platt doubles his own goalscoring record for the season. Certainly, goals have been coming from more areas than were previously seen under Mark Hughes, and in truth Graham Alexander’s side executed a masterclass in countering similar tactics to those employed by Hughes from MK Dons. A high press combined with fast, fluid attacking play mixed well with more direct balls at times, showing better balance than Bantams’ fans have seen previously employed.

MK Dons struggled to get out of their own half at times, and despite dominating possession, really didn’t threaten often enough. That’s not to say they weren’t without their own chances, however: and Jack Payne will have been disappointed that multiple direct free kicks did not produce a goal.

Graham Alexander won’t care about that, though. 4 clean sheets in a row speaks of a defence at the top of their game, with Matty Platt in particularly impressive form. Ciaran Kelly has become a must-start, and Jonathan Tomkinson has the pace and ball-playing ability to compliment the other pair nicely. On this form, they aren’t likely provide an easy route to goal for the likes Harry Smith, Lee Angol, or Omari Patrick this weekend, something Bradford City fans can hopefully bank upon more and more as Chris Lucketti gets the back line well organised and well drilled.



Bradford City 4 – 0 MK Dons

 

THE BREAKDOWN

4/7: Bradford City
14/5: Draw
4/1: Sutton United

At almost 3/1, a draw looks a good value bet this weekend, but Bradford City will be looking for much more than that as they seek to build on back-to-back wins over Wrexham and MK Dons. Their home hoodoo against teams at the bottom end of the table might be a concern, but a recent victory over a beleaguered Doncaster Rovers side in the EFL Trophy is a sign that this may be improving as well – and the Bantams ruthlessly dispatched Forest Green Rovers the last time they played a relegation threatened side, running out 3-0 winners.

There’s not a lot of cause to fancy Sutton United outside of fears that City will be the side to snap their winless run under their new manager Steve Morison, who has at least made the Londoners harder to beat. Even though Sutton United beat Bradford City on their own turf earlier in the season, that result at Gander Green Lane came on the back of a 4-1 hammering in Milton Keynes. The omens could not be more different now following an even more impressive 4-0 win over that very same side.

Perhaps the peculiarity of playing MK Dons and then Sutton United back-to-back twice in a row this season will evidence the importance of confidence and momentum. While Graham Alexander was not in charge for the away fixture at Sutton, heads were well down as City stuttered under caretaker Kevin McDonald – but they won’t be on Saturday afternoon.

Speaking of Kevin McDonald, his role as midfield maestro will be critical as Richie Smallwood enters a two-game suspension after picking up a 10th yellow card of the season. As harsh as the card award was from referee Oliver Yates, players don’t pick up 10 cautions by mistake or based on one decision: it was coming, and it has been earned by Richie. McDonald will have to lead from the centre, most likely alongside reliable workhorse Alex Gilliead, perhaps forcing a reshuffle at left wing back.

Other than that, Bradford City fans will be hoping for much of the same. Jake Young, whether he starts or comes off the bench, will be looking for his first goal back at Bradford City, while Cook, Kavanagh and Oduor looked good as a three-pronged attack force and might retain their starting berths regardless of the status of Young’s ankle injury.

It’s worth singling out Cook, as well, for a much improved performance in front of the Valley Parade crowd. Not only did he score, he won his headers and led the line well with a tireless high press, proving a constant handful for the MK Dons backline. That’s an ominous sign for any defence heading to Valley Parade. Cook is at his best when he’s not just contributing goals but creating problems – expect more of the same against Sutton United.

With all that said, Bradford City’s strong recent defensive record and impressive press and attacking prowess, this should be a win for the home side. While they exceeded all expectations against MK Dons, expect a tougher time against a Sutton United side determined to ground out at least a draw, but beyond that aiming for their first win under Steve Morison. They will come to Valley Parade seeking a win by moving the ball well, defending resolutely, and making a minimal number of mistakes.

I don’t think this will be an easy game by any means, but Bradford City should have enough to shut out their opponents and grab at least a couple of goals if everything works in their favour.

PREDICTION:

Bradford City 2 – 0 Sutton United