The Voice - Match preview Bradford City vs Notts County Tuesday 19th March @ 7.45 (Rearranged)

EFL LEAGUE TWO FIXTURE #34

Saturday 2nd March 2024 15:00
Bradford City (16th) vs Notts County (14th)
University of Bradford Stadium (AKA Valley Parade)

23/24 Result:

18 Nov 2023: Notts County 4 – 2 Bradford City

Head-to-Head Form: LDWLD (most recent result first)

Won: 23
Drawn: 16
Lost: 29

Current League Form:

Bradford City: WWWDL
Notts County: LLLWL

NOTTS COUNTY

5 defeats in their last 6 games and only 1 win in their last 9 are the kind of statistics that will pile pressure on any manager. Current Notts County incumbent Stuart Maynard is only responsible for 7 of those games, but his record of 1 win, 1 draw and 5 defeats at a side that had looked like play off certainties as a minimum under previous manager Luke Williams, simply isn’t good enough. Williams, who has since joined up with Championship outfit Swansea City, is not doing particularly well either (3 wins, 1 draw, 6 defeats): a strong argument for maintaining the status quo where possible, perhaps.

In any event, Williams moves up the EFL pyramid, while Notts County plummet down the League Two table, nestling in at 14th place at present. Whether or not Notts County fans anticipate a turn around in fortunes and a possible further run at the play offs, the reality is Notts County (for all the pessimism that comes with an extended run of poor form) remain ahead of Saturday’s rivals Bradford City.

Defeat on Tuesday night to bottom side Sutton United left Maynard ‘embarrassed’, but in recent outings Notts County can legitimately point towards a tough run of fixtures that saw them face (and lose) to all of Mansfield Town, Gillingham, Wrexham, and Crewe Alexandra: their one win in and amongst the last 6 games came away at Newport County, a side themselves on good form, having chalked up some impressive wins lately. In other words, County are hardly turning up just to lose.

It speaks to the power of momentum, then, that a run of tough defeats led to a loss at home to struggling Sutton United. Notts County, as has been true all season, had no issues scoring. They put 3 past Sutton, yet still lost. Therein lie many of the problems facing the Nottinghamshire side. 69 goals scored in the league this season is a phenomenal feat, the highest of any side in League Two – a fact that has stood firm even in a spite of a poor run of recent form. At the other end, however, Notts County have shipped a full 66 goals – the second highest in the division, behind only Sutton United.

While County have whipped a few sides this season, including Bradford City by a 4-2 margin earlier on in the campaign, they’ve also consistently let in far too many. A 5-5 draw at Grimsby Town is another example of County struggling to deal with poorly performing sides, and couple that with a 5-4 defeat at Colchester United, another team having a very poor season, and it becomes clear Notts County aren’t controlling games properly and making the most of their advantages. In fact, no sooner had Notts County beaten Bradford City 4-2, than they were losing the very next game by the very same scoreline: AFC Wimbledon profiting that time in another 6-goal thriller.

‘Thrilling’, however, should not be confused with consistency, of which Notts County are showing very little. As likely to blow teams off the park (their biggest win came against Morecambe 5-0) as they are to get hammered (they lost the opening game of the season 5-1 at Sutton United), County look like a side that always had a potential bad run of form in them. One could even argue that Maynard’s inherited side were already struggling in spite of Swansea City’s poaching of Luke Williams. From late October through to December 22, Notts County won 4 and lost 8. Two resounding victories over Doncaster Rovers and Morecambe and a couple of draws against Grimsby Town and Barrow must have allayed any fears at Swansea that Williams was the right man, though realistically the wheels already looked like they might be coming off for the Magpies.

Top scorer Macaulay Langstaff (23) boasts the kind of haul any striker would rightly be proud of but seems to have slowed down a little under Maynard’s management. There are rumours that his drop off in form coincides with interest from the likes of Championship sides Birmingham City, Sunderland, and Coventry City, though these are unsubstantiated. While a move failed to materialise in January, it’s possible Langstaff will have his eye in for a Summer departure, and who could blame him? Scoring a few more now, though, can only boost Langstaff’s power to negotiate the terms of his next deal. Don’t discount him hitting form again, but even if he doesn’t, Dan Crowley (13) and David McGoldrick (12) have hit not-exactly-insubstantial tallies of their own. Aaron Nemane (6) and Jodi Jones (5) are the other players to have hit more than 2 league goals this season, making for a full quintet of players boasting genuine attacking prowess – and County managed to retain them all.

At the back, though, it’s a different story. Luca Ashby-Hammond is the goalkeeper now, having been brought in on loan from Fulham during the January transfer window. He has effectively replaced the likes of Aidan Stone and Sam Slocombe for the time being, both of whom had alternated duties between the Notts County sticks suggesting a lack of confidence in either. Defenders Kyle Cameron and Aden Baldwin have been consistently relied upon in a back 3, with loanee Jaden Warner brought in on loan from Norwich City in the transfer window in a bid to forge a settled back line. That this back line has now shipped 7 goals in the last 2 games suggests neither Ashby-Hammond nor Warner have made a significant impact as yet. Can these players prove to be the difference? Certainly, against better-performing opposition, County limited both Wrexham and Mansfield Town to ‘just’ 1-0 wins, but that will be of little consolation to Magpies fans right now.



Notts County 3 - 4 Sutton United

BRADFORD CITY

To say that Bradford City fans weren’t happy with last weekend’s postponement against Barrow would be understatement – especially those who had already made the trip! In fairness to Barrow, though, manager Pete Wild sounded no less thrilled than the away fans, his club apparently reporting referee Tom Nield to the FA to (predictably) little effect.

Safety first must be the line from the FA, and doubts about the playability of a section of the pitch must be considered. Nonetheless, with that postponement now in the rearview mirror, Bradford City move on having had 10 days rest since Wycombe Wanderers sucker-punched them in the EFL Trophy semi-final. Whether that rest was wanted or not is not now relevant. What’s relevant is a run of 4 home games from the next 5 that has seen the Bantams encamped at Valley Parade since late January.

That by the time March 16th rolls around (when City entertain promotion-chasing juggernauts Mansfield Town) Graham Alexander’s men will have played nine of eleven league and cup fixtures on home soil is astonishing! Such a statistical anomaly is something football fans place high hopes upon, and so far, so good for the Bantams. League wins over MK Dons and Sutton United combined with a draw against AFC Wimbledon mean Bradford City have picked up 7 points from a possible 9, with a further 12 on the table in the coming weeks. Only an away trip to Accrington Stanley on March 9 denies a clean sweep of home league fixtures across their next 5 matches.

Notts County will head to Valley Parade on Saturday with targets on their backs after a miserable run of form, and while Bradford City continue to look only mediocre in terms of finishing ability, their defence has been rock-solid for the past 7 games. Only a late, late winner from League One Wycombe Wanderers has breached the Bradford City backline during that period, so it will be imperative those gaps are plugged once more on Saturday even with the likes of Richie Smallwood unavailable for selection through suspension and suggestions that Matty Platt may be an absentee as well.

The other major injury has fallen on Jake Young. The striker, who enjoyed a red hot spell of form for Swindon Town in the first half of this season, has had no luck at all since his return to Valley Parade. Surgery on his hamstring will now potentially rule him out for the rest of the season. Best wishes to Jake on a full recovery as soon as possible.

The game on Saturday will, however, be a serious test of Bradford City’s normal statistics. One of the best defences in the division goes head-to-head with the most dangerous strike force, and last time the two clubs met, it took only 45 minutes for Notts County to race into a 4-0 lead. That Bradford City then recovered and ‘won’ the second half 2-0 suggests the first half was an anomaly for the Bantams, but from Notts County’s perspective, it was just another example of how their free-scoring forwards can rip any backline in the division apart on their day.

Can Bradford City, under Graham Alexander, counter that threat on Saturday, especially now that County are well off the boil? Or will their back line be, once again, sitting ducks for a pacy, clinical strike force? Will City be able to keep the score tight and try to sneak another 1-0 win, or will Notts County be able to dictate that the game becomes another of their 8, 9 or 10 goal thrillers?



Bradford City 1 - 0 Sutton United

 

THE BREAKDOWN

19/20: Bradford City
13/5: Draw
13/5: Notts County

While the form table favours Bradford City – significantly – Notts County would be correct in pointing to a run of very tough fixtures against almost exclusively promotion-chasing sides. Such a run can sometimes be overwhelming, and that certainly seems to have been the case for the Magpies. But rather than bounce back in their ‘easier’ game against Sutton United, County walked away on the wrong end of an ‘embarrassing’ 4-3 defeat. Is this a case of a consistent run of tough games grinding down the Nottinghamshire side’s resilience? Or is there another run left in the Midlanders?

Bradford City will certainly be hoping that any potential ‘bounce back’ comes after Saturday’s game. Stuart Maynard will have to wait before getting back control of the ship! While the defence continues to be a mess, Notts County just aren’t scoring at the same clip as earlier in the season, either. 3 goals against Sutton United and 3 in a victory over Newport County are counterbalanced by drawing blanks at Mansfield Town and Wrexham, while they managed just 1 a piece in each of the games against Barrow, Gillingham, and Crewe Alexandra. While all those teams are quality League Two opposition, only Mansfield Town can boast a significantly superior defensive record than Bradford City this season.

At the top of their form, then, Bradford City might find themselves in good company in trying to shut down their opposition’s extremely potent attack force. That bodes well.

Bradford City are on good form, they are making the most of a concentrated run of fixtures at Valley Parade, and they almost had something to shout about when they took Wycombe Wanderers all the way in their EFL Trophy semi-final. Now, though, it’s back to the drawing board, and the plan is simple: a consistent run can reduce the current 5 point gap between City and the play offs, and it needs to continue in the immediacy or else the season is likely over.

The last time a side came to Valley Parade having dismantled them in the away fixture, the Bantams uncharacteristically stuffed 4 past them in a comprehensive 4-0 rout: MK Dons stand up. While a repeat is probably too much to expect against Notts County, the question is, where are Notts County’s heads at under a new manager and a complete loss of form? Their anticipated assault on the automatic promotion spots has been reduced to a distant fantasy, and the play offs, too, are slipping away. Yes, County are currently ahead of Bradford City who have yet to give up the ghost, but they’re only 1 point ahead and have played 1 more game. If they drop behind the Bantams on Saturday, it’s likely curtains for them.

Bradford City are playing well, but goals remain a concern. While the defence has been top notch lately, that can only go on for so long. Sucker punches, like Wycombe’s last Wednesday night, do happen – so, too, do errors. Bradford City cannot rely on scoring 1 goal per game forever, especially if they’re serious about a run up the table.

Which brings us to Saturday. City are doing very well defensively, but they’re facing the most potent attack in the division. They’re not so sharp up front, but they’re also facing one of the worst defences. The potential for a chaotic game on an unreliable surface at Valley Parade is high, and that’s the pick here. No, I don’t quite foresee a 6-goal thriller (though who knows?!) and hopefully the surface favours Graham Alexander’s at-times direct football more than it does County’s slick passing and pacy counter attacking style.

Let’s go for 3-1 City. The scoreline is well within County’s wheelhouse, having lost to both Gillingham and Crewe Alexandra by that exact score in recent weeks, though they did also turn the tables on Newport County with a 3-1 win in Wales. Yes, it could go either way, but let’s not rip up the form book just yet.

PREDICTION:

Bradford City 3 – 1 Notts County