Most liked posts in thread: 10-game segments, season 20/21

"Happy days are here again / The skies above are clear again / ..."

Well, let's not get too carried away, but cautious optimism would certainly be justified. This is the sort of segment one likes to document.

1st 10: 3-3-4, 11-11, 12
2nd 10: 3-2-5, 9-14, 11
3rd 10: 7-2-1, 15-7, 23

Home: 7-4-4, 16-13, 25
Away: 6-3-6, 19-19, 21
Total: 13-7-10, 35-32, 46

Leading at HT: 7-0-1, 16-6, 21
Drawing at HT: 5-6-4, 15-13, 21
Trailing at HT: 1-1-5, 4-13, 4

Leading at any point: 13-3-2
Trailing at any point: 2-2-10
(0-0: 3; Both led and trailed in same match: Stevenage (H), Exeter (H), Cheltenham (H), Exeter (A), Morecambe (H))

McCall: H: 2-3-4, 9-11, 9
McCall: A: 1-1-5, 6-12, 4
McCall: T: 3-4-9, 15-23, 13

Trueman/Sellars: H: 5-1-0, 7-2, 16
Trueman/Sellars: A: 5-2-1, 13-7, 17
Trueman/Sellars: T: 10-3-1, 20-9, 33
* * * * *
Shows how important a good defence is -- tighten that up, and even a small improvement in scoring pays big dividends. (Also, to be fair, having suitable players suitably coached playing in their best positions.) We needed a good transfer window, and we got it; we needed better coaching, and we've got that as well.

We're now on pace for 71 points, which often is enough to get into the playoffs. And having gained 46 points, we are very close to a first objective, namely being safe from relegation (so far, 52 has been guaranteed safe in the 3-points-for-a-win era). If we want to grumble, then the record when trailing at the half, or at any point, could be better. But, one could say that just about every year, and given where we were...

Updated gaudy charts also show the improvements:






RCB

 

We go again...

1st 10: 3-3-4, 11-11, 12
2nd 10: 3-2-5, 9-14, 11

Home: 3-3-4, 10-11, 12
Away: 3-2-5, 10-14, 11
Total: 6-5-9, 20-25, 23

Leading at HT: 4-0-0, 9-2, 12
Drawing at HT: 1-4-4, 7-10, 7
Trailing at HT: 1-1-5, 4-13, 4

Leading at any point: 6-3-1, 18-10, 18
Trailing at any point: 1-2-9, 7-20, 5
(0-0: 1)
Both led and trailed in same match: Stevenage (H), Exeter (H), Cheltenham (H)

McCall:................. H: 2-3-4, 9-11, 9.....A: 1-1-5, 6-12, 4.....T: 3-4-9, 15-23, 13
Trueman/Sellars: H: 1-0-0, 1-0, 3.......A: 2-1-0, 4-1, 4.......T: 3-1-0, 5-2, 10
- - - - -
T&S have messed up my nice gloomy update! We are back to the giddy heights of muddling mediocrity, after flirting with being relegation certainties. Our current points pace will see us on 53; so far 52 has guaranteed safety. Today we won for the first time when drawing at the half; we need to do more of that. We also need to win more points when trailing at the half, or really, at any point in a match, but you could say that about us in most seasons. But in general, T&S have done exactly what was needed, and we can indeed think about entertaining the idea of becoming (cautiously) optimistic again!

Here's some colourful charts for the festive season.

First the Ronnie Brown chart, which shows us improving, but still a ways away from the "comfort" pace (which would actually get us into the playoffs in many seasons):



And secondly one which plots our progress against various targets. We are finally back over, albeit just, the pace for guaranteed safety.



RCB

 

Ta! But all credit to the players and staff; they make the stats, I just compile and organise -- a task that is a much more pleasant one nowadays.

Yes; at our lowest we had a running 10-match line of 1-1-8. Admittedly there were injury problems, but recruitment, coaching, and tactics all needed to change, and, sad to say it, the sacking was needed.

True enough, but we can't just wish away that first part of the season. Still, I hope your projected target turns out to be the right one!

RCB

 

Musical accompaniment to this report by The Cure: "Grinding Halt"

1st 10: 3-3-4, 11-11, 12
2nd 10: 3-2-5, 9-14, 11
3rd 10: 7-2-1, 15-7, 23
4th 10: 3-3-4, 11-13, 12

Home: 9-6-5, 22-17, 33
Away: 7-4-9, 24-28, 25
Total: 16-10-14, 46-45, 58

Leading @ HT: 9-0-1, 21-7, 27
Drawing @ HT: 6-9-5, 20-18, 27
Trailing @ HT: 1-1-8, 5-20, 4

Leading at any point: 16-3-3
Trailing at any point: 2-4-14
(0-0: 4)

Both led and trailed in same match: Stevenage (H), Exeter (H), Cheltenham (H), Exeter (A), Morecambe (H), Newport (A)

McCall:
H: 2-3-4, 9-11, 9
A: 1-1-5, 6-12, 4
T: 3-4-9, 15-23, 13

Trueman/Sellars:
H: 7-3-1, 13-6, 24
A: 6-3-4, 18-16, 21
T: 13-6-5, 31-22, 45

* * * * *
This was a disappointing segment, but as I just mentioned on the "T&S (soon) out thread", we are reverting to what seems to be the natural level for this side, mid-to-top-half of table. A promotion-winning side can afford perhaps one middling to poor segment in a season, at a pinch two if the rest of the season is brilliant, but we now have a third such middling/muddling segment. Some of that is down to the players, some to T&S. Upgrading of the former, and development in the latter, is needed over the summer and into next season.

Last segment we saw how even marginal improvement in scoring, coupled with great improvement in defence, leads to better results; now we went the other way, lost that improvement in scoring, and deteriorated in defence. We remain poor in rescuing draws or wins from trailing positions; T&S have three times gone into halftime trailing, and each time we have lost.

Still, they are on a points pace of 1.875, or 86 for a season; this is guaranteed play-off pace, and most seasons will get you promoted automatically. If the start of the season is factored in, the pace drops to 1.45, or 67; this is mid-table, with a very outside chance of sneaking into 7th.

And this segment confirmed that we are safe from relegation, barring doing something so bad that we get a lot of points deducted!

The gaudy charts don't like this segment either. Trying to include them this time crashes my spreadsheet and then Firefox, until I close the spreadsheet. C'est la vie.

RCB

 

Back to the future...we began the season on comfortable relegation pace, 3-4-9, 15-23, 13, and ended the season on comfortable relegation pace, 3-4-9, 13-21, 13. For the 14 matches in the middle, we rose to record-setting, runaway champions, pace -- 10-3-1, 20-9, 33 -- and thank heavens for that. But everybody hit the "off" switch once safety was assured, and neither could the players find it in themselves to turn themselves back on, nor could the managers manage to make them flick that switch. In the end a wasted chance and season.

* * * * *

1st 10: 3-3-4, 11-11, 12
2nd 10: 3-2-5, 9-14, 11
3rd 10: 7-2-1, 15-7, 23
4th 10: 3-3-4, 11-13, 12
last 6: 0-1-5, 2-8, 1

Home: 9-7-7, 22-19, 34
Away: 7-4-12, 26-34, 25
Total: 16-11-19, 48-53, 59

Leading at HT: 9-0-1, 21-7, 27
Drawing at HT: 6-10-6, 20-19, 28
Trailing at HT: 1-1-12, 7-27, 4

Leading at any point: 16-3-4
Trailing at any point: 2-4-19
(0-0: 5)
Both led and trailed in same match: Stevenage (H), Exeter (H), Cheltenham (H), Exeter (A), Morecambe (H), Newport (A), Port Vale (A)

McCall:
H: 2-3-4, 9-11, 9
A: 1-1-5, 6-12, 4
T: 3-4-9, 15-23, 13

Trueman/Sellars:
H: 7-4-3, 13-8, 25
A: 6-3-7, 20-22, 21
T: 13-7-10, 33-30, 46

* * * * *

We were awful at rescuing draws or wins from losing positions, whether at the half or at any point in a match. Seven times under T&S we were trailing at the half, and not even a single point gained.

It's very disappointing, as some of the players did show that they were better than what the overall results and performances have been. WHat did a poster mention earlier? 91 days to the new season? We'll do it all again then!

RCB

 

One can also suggest that once you get 2/3 into a season, the teams that are top (or top-ish) are there for a reason -- the lofty position isn't a fluke. When you're coming from as far back as we were, just being in contention for the playoffs is an achievement. But as you note, being the form team going into the playoffs is a good thing to be.

RCB

 

Some colour to brighten things up...





Both show how we levelled off each time we threatened to make something good of the season.

* * * * *

In terms of goals allowed our defence wasn't bad, but with an offence as offensive as ours, the defence would have had to have been brilliant. Another 20 goals on top of what we had would have done wonders. We have lost, or will (probably) lose, most of the scoring too this close season (Cook, Rowe, Novak, Donaldson etc.), so it's not just find another 20 to add, but find the first 50 or so...

RCB