10-game segments, season 20/21

Well, I can't complain. The season began with a solid defensive display in keeping out Coronavirus City, 3-0. Then a family member make a stirring comeback against Arthritis Wanderers to earn a scrappy 1-1 draw. Two more wins followed, 1-0 against the Frost Devils and 2-1 against Weather Utd, as the last harvests and gardening works were completed. In a quirk of scheduling, the matches with Renovations Inc. followed one another; 3-2 and 2-0 wins. The good run ended with losses against Dentists Utd 0-2, Expenses Utd 1-5, and Gear Acquisition Syndrome City, 0-4. However, a good win against the Cold and Rainy Autumn Blues, 3-0, put things back on track. (I love my new guitar amp!) I make that a record of 6-1-3, 16-15, 19 points. Promotion material!

Other sides, for example City, have not done so well.

1st 10: 3-3-4, 11-11, 12

Home: 2-2-2, 6-6, 8
Away: 1-1-2, 5-5, 4
Total: 3-3-4, 11-11, 12

Leading/Drawing/Trailing at HT:

Leading: 2-0-0, 6-1, 6
Drawing: 0-2-1, 2-3, 2
Trailing: 1-1-3, 3-7, 4

Leading/Trailing at any point:

Leading: 3-1-0, 10-4, 7
Trailing: 1-1-4, 3-8, 4
(0-0: 1; both led and trailed in same match: Stevenage (H))

Today's win means that the start of a relegation candidate improves to that of a muddling (lower) mid-table mediocrity. So far, in the 3-points for a win era, the average points gained by the 23rd- and 24th-placed sides have been 43.2 and 37.7, the medians 44 and 39; the highest point-total for a relegated side has been 51. We are now on a pace for 55.

There's no way to put a shine on the numbers; they disappoint, like the side. No need to repeat the problems here -- there's no shortage of threads in which they are mentioned! True, we are not, in general, being blown out, we do well with a lead, and if the midfield can keep on scoring like today they will help us greatly. But overall, this start suggests we'll be in this division again next season.

RCB

 

We go again...

1st 10: 3-3-4, 11-11, 12
2nd 10: 3-2-5, 9-14, 11

Home: 3-3-4, 10-11, 12
Away: 3-2-5, 10-14, 11
Total: 6-5-9, 20-25, 23

Leading at HT: 4-0-0, 9-2, 12
Drawing at HT: 1-4-4, 7-10, 7
Trailing at HT: 1-1-5, 4-13, 4

Leading at any point: 6-3-1, 18-10, 18
Trailing at any point: 1-2-9, 7-20, 5
(0-0: 1)
Both led and trailed in same match: Stevenage (H), Exeter (H), Cheltenham (H)

McCall:................. H: 2-3-4, 9-11, 9.....A: 1-1-5, 6-12, 4.....T: 3-4-9, 15-23, 13
Trueman/Sellars: H: 1-0-0, 1-0, 3.......A: 2-1-0, 4-1, 4.......T: 3-1-0, 5-2, 10
- - - - -
T&S have messed up my nice gloomy update! We are back to the giddy heights of muddling mediocrity, after flirting with being relegation certainties. Our current points pace will see us on 53; so far 52 has guaranteed safety. Today we won for the first time when drawing at the half; we need to do more of that. We also need to win more points when trailing at the half, or really, at any point in a match, but you could say that about us in most seasons. But in general, T&S have done exactly what was needed, and we can indeed think about entertaining the idea of becoming (cautiously) optimistic again!

Here's some colourful charts for the festive season.

First the Ronnie Brown chart, which shows us improving, but still a ways away from the "comfort" pace (which would actually get us into the playoffs in many seasons):



And secondly one which plots our progress against various targets. We are finally back over, albeit just, the pace for guaranteed safety.



RCB

 

Yes, the rolling 10-match line at that point had us at 1-1-8... We really did need to make a major change, and, sorry to say it, Stuart did seem to be a big part of the problem. He was also the easiest change to make. As you say, now we can look forward to matches again. The past four matches have shown that there is enough in the side as it is to remove fears of relegation, but they now have to keep to, at worst, the standards they've now set. It will be interesting to see how we do against Port Vale, as that is a match we should be regarding as winnable.

* * * * *

I see that there is a typo in the T&S record line in my post above; their away points should read 7, not 4.

RCB

 

"Happy days are here again / The skies above are clear again / ..."

Well, let's not get too carried away, but cautious optimism would certainly be justified. This is the sort of segment one likes to document.

1st 10: 3-3-4, 11-11, 12
2nd 10: 3-2-5, 9-14, 11
3rd 10: 7-2-1, 15-7, 23

Home: 7-4-4, 16-13, 25
Away: 6-3-6, 19-19, 21
Total: 13-7-10, 35-32, 46

Leading at HT: 7-0-1, 16-6, 21
Drawing at HT: 5-6-4, 15-13, 21
Trailing at HT: 1-1-5, 4-13, 4

Leading at any point: 13-3-2
Trailing at any point: 2-2-10
(0-0: 3; Both led and trailed in same match: Stevenage (H), Exeter (H), Cheltenham (H), Exeter (A), Morecambe (H))

McCall: H: 2-3-4, 9-11, 9
McCall: A: 1-1-5, 6-12, 4
McCall: T: 3-4-9, 15-23, 13

Trueman/Sellars: H: 5-1-0, 7-2, 16
Trueman/Sellars: A: 5-2-1, 13-7, 17
Trueman/Sellars: T: 10-3-1, 20-9, 33
* * * * *
Shows how important a good defence is -- tighten that up, and even a small improvement in scoring pays big dividends. (Also, to be fair, having suitable players suitably coached playing in their best positions.) We needed a good transfer window, and we got it; we needed better coaching, and we've got that as well.

We're now on pace for 71 points, which often is enough to get into the playoffs. And having gained 46 points, we are very close to a first objective, namely being safe from relegation (so far, 52 has been guaranteed safe in the 3-points-for-a-win era). If we want to grumble, then the record when trailing at the half, or at any point, could be better. But, one could say that just about every year, and given where we were...

Updated gaudy charts also show the improvements:






RCB

 

Ta! But all credit to the players and staff; they make the stats, I just compile and organise -- a task that is a much more pleasant one nowadays.

Yes; at our lowest we had a running 10-match line of 1-1-8. Admittedly there were injury problems, but recruitment, coaching, and tactics all needed to change, and, sad to say it, the sacking was needed.

True enough, but we can't just wish away that first part of the season. Still, I hope your projected target turns out to be the right one!

RCB