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10-game segments, season 20/21

Discussion in 'City Talk' started by River_City_Bantam, Nov 3, 2020.

  1. Ulysses S Grant

    Ulysses S Grant Squad Player
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    Very true, but form is form and we can absolutely discount those first 16 games and the percentage points gained from what we are getting at 2.34 a game on our T&S our form. We are bound to have a dip at some point so 83 is probably unrealistic, but I don't see any reason at all why we cant' get the 23 to 26 we would need to finish in the top seven and meet your prediction head on.

    To me the biggest potential stat on the horizon is that if we win the next two T&S will have picked up TRIPLE the points from 16 games that Stuart did.
     
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  2. XCIV_Bantam

    XCIV_Bantam Squad Player
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    never thought I'd be able to say this just before Stuart got the sack but we are now matching the 19/20 season and exceeding the History Makers season. Right on course for the play-offs but I think we can do better ;)

    upload_2021-3-8_10-59-29.png
     
  3. Jordan

    Jordan Impact Sub

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    Had a little look through recent history of L2 play offs to see how the teams who are in the POs in March, then how they end up at the end of the season. Skipped last season as it all ended around now, but after March 1st, the trend tends to be there are one or two teams who are outside the top 7 who make the march up the league and end up winning the play offs along with one of the top 3 dropping out.

    This season will be very interesting due to everyone having games in hand on each other and the table being so close. But if recent history is anything to go by, one or two teams currently outside the spots will climb into the top 7.

    18/19 1st March top 7 (34 games in)
    Lincoln 1st - After 46 games they ended 1st
    Bury 2nd - After 46 games they ended 2nd
    Mansfield 3rd - After 46 games they ended 4th
    MK 4th - After 46 games they ended 3rd
    Exeter 5th - After 46 games they ended 9th
    Colchester 6th - After 46 games they ended 8th
    FGR 7th - After 46 games they ended 5th

    Tranmere climbed from 9th to 6th (won POs)
    Newport climbed from 15th to 7th
    5 of the 7 were in place my this stage, 2 of top 3 went up automatically.

    17/18 1st March top 7
    Luton 1st - After 46 games they ended 2nd
    Accrington 2nd - After 46 games they ended 1st
    Wycombe 3rd - After 46 games they ended 3rd
    Notts Co 4th - After 46 games they ended 5th
    Mansfield 5th - After 46 games they ended 8th
    Exeter 6th - After 46 games they ended 4th
    Swindon 7th - After 46 games they ended 9th

    Coventry were 8th, finished 6th (won POs)
    Lincoln were 9th, finished 7th
    5 of the 7 were in place, 3 of 3 autos stayed in place.

    16/17 1st of March top 7
    Doncaster 1st - After 46 games they ended 3rd
    Plymouth 2nd - After 46 games they ended 2nd
    Carlisle 3rd - After 46 games they ended 6th
    Pompey - 4th - After 46 games they ended 1st
    Luton - 5th - After 46 games they ended 4th
    Exeter 6th - After 46 games they ended 5th
    Stevenage 7th - After 46 games they ended 10th

    Blackpool were 15th, finished 7th (won POs)
    6 of the 7 were in place, 2 of 3 auto spots stayed as is.


    15/16 1st of March top 7
    Northampton 1st - After 46 games they ended 1st
    Oxford 2nd - After 46 games they ended 2nd
    Plymouth 3rd - After 46 games they ended 5th
    Accrington 4th - After 46 games they ended 4th
    Pompey 5th - After 46 games they ended 6th
    Bristol 6th - After 46 games they ended 3rd
    Leyton O 7th - After 46 games they ended 8th

    Wimbledon were 8th, finished 7th (won POs)
    6 of the 7 were in place, 2 of 3 autos spots went up.

    14/15 1st March top 7
    Burton 1st - After 46 games they ended 1st
    Shrewsbury 2nd - After 46 games they ended 2nd
    Wycombe 3rd - After 46 games they ended 4th
    Luton 4th - After 46 games they ended 8th
    Southend 5th - After 46 games they ended 5th (Won POs)
    Bury 6th - After 46 games they ended 3rd
    Newport 7th - After 46 games they ended 9th

    Stevenage were 9th, ended 6th
    Plymouth were 8th, ended 7th

    5 of the 7 were in place, 2 of the 3 autos were in place
     
  4. Stoneski

    Stoneski Regular Starter
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    It sems that only once in that time have the Play-off winners already been in a PO position at this stage of the season. :unsure::)

    Great stats, by the way. Thanks.
     
  5. River_City_Bantam

    River_City_Bantam Squad Player
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    One can also suggest that once you get 2/3 into a season, the teams that are top (or top-ish) are there for a reason -- the lofty position isn't a fluke. When you're coming from as far back as we were, just being in contention for the playoffs is an achievement. But as you note, being the form team going into the playoffs is a good thing to be.

    RCB
     
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  6. River_City_Bantam

    River_City_Bantam Squad Player
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    Musical accompaniment to this report by The Cure: "Grinding Halt"

    1st 10: 3-3-4, 11-11, 12
    2nd 10: 3-2-5, 9-14, 11
    3rd 10: 7-2-1, 15-7, 23
    4th 10: 3-3-4, 11-13, 12

    Home: 9-6-5, 22-17, 33
    Away: 7-4-9, 24-28, 25
    Total: 16-10-14, 46-45, 58

    Leading @ HT: 9-0-1, 21-7, 27
    Drawing @ HT: 6-9-5, 20-18, 27
    Trailing @ HT: 1-1-8, 5-20, 4

    Leading at any point: 16-3-3
    Trailing at any point: 2-4-14
    (0-0: 4)

    Both led and trailed in same match: Stevenage (H), Exeter (H), Cheltenham (H), Exeter (A), Morecambe (H), Newport (A)

    McCall:
    H:
    2-3-4, 9-11, 9
    A: 1-1-5, 6-12, 4
    T: 3-4-9, 15-23, 13

    Trueman/Sellars:
    H: 7-3-1, 13-6, 24
    A: 6-3-4, 18-16, 21
    T: 13-6-5, 31-22, 45

    * * * * *
    This was a disappointing segment, but as I just mentioned on the "T&S (soon) out thread", we are reverting to what seems to be the natural level for this side, mid-to-top-half of table. A promotion-winning side can afford perhaps one middling to poor segment in a season, at a pinch two if the rest of the season is brilliant, but we now have a third such middling/muddling segment. Some of that is down to the players, some to T&S. Upgrading of the former, and development in the latter, is needed over the summer and into next season.

    Last segment we saw how even marginal improvement in scoring, coupled with great improvement in defence, leads to better results; now we went the other way, lost that improvement in scoring, and deteriorated in defence. We remain poor in rescuing draws or wins from trailing positions; T&S have three times gone into halftime trailing, and each time we have lost.

    Still, they are on a points pace of 1.875, or 86 for a season; this is guaranteed play-off pace, and most seasons will get you promoted automatically. If the start of the season is factored in, the pace drops to 1.45, or 67; this is mid-table, with a very outside chance of sneaking into 7th.

    And this segment confirmed that we are safe from relegation, barring doing something so bad that we get a lot of points deducted!

    The gaudy charts don't like this segment either. Trying to include them this time crashes my spreadsheet and then Firefox, until I close the spreadsheet. C'est la vie.

    RCB
     
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  7. River_City_Bantam

    River_City_Bantam Squad Player
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    Back to the future...we began the season on comfortable relegation pace, 3-4-9, 15-23, 13, and ended the season on comfortable relegation pace, 3-4-9, 13-21, 13. For the 14 matches in the middle, we rose to record-setting, runaway champions, pace -- 10-3-1, 20-9, 33 -- and thank heavens for that. But everybody hit the "off" switch once safety was assured, and neither could the players find it in themselves to turn themselves back on, nor could the managers manage to make them flick that switch. In the end a wasted chance and season.

    * * * * *

    1st 10: 3-3-4, 11-11, 12
    2nd 10: 3-2-5, 9-14, 11
    3rd 10: 7-2-1, 15-7, 23
    4th 10: 3-3-4, 11-13, 12
    last 6: 0-1-5, 2-8, 1

    Home: 9-7-7, 22-19, 34
    Away: 7-4-12, 26-34, 25
    Total: 16-11-19, 48-53, 59

    Leading at HT: 9-0-1, 21-7, 27
    Drawing at HT: 6-10-6, 20-19, 28
    Trailing at HT: 1-1-12, 7-27, 4

    Leading at any point: 16-3-4
    Trailing at any point: 2-4-19
    (0-0: 5)
    Both led and trailed in same match: Stevenage (H), Exeter (H), Cheltenham (H), Exeter (A), Morecambe (H), Newport (A), Port Vale (A)

    McCall:
    H: 2-3-4, 9-11, 9
    A: 1-1-5, 6-12, 4
    T: 3-4-9, 15-23, 13

    Trueman/Sellars:
    H: 7-4-3, 13-8, 25
    A: 6-3-7, 20-22, 21
    T: 13-7-10, 33-30, 46

    * * * * *

    We were awful at rescuing draws or wins from losing positions, whether at the half or at any point in a match. Seven times under T&S we were trailing at the half, and not even a single point gained.

    It's very disappointing, as some of the players did show that they were better than what the overall results and performances have been. WHat did a poster mention earlier? 91 days to the new season? We'll do it all again then!

    RCB
     
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  8. Ulysses S Grant

    Ulysses S Grant Squad Player
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    shows how quickly it all turned sour
     
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  9. River_City_Bantam

    River_City_Bantam Squad Player
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    Some colour to brighten things up...

    upload_2021-5-8_18-0-55.png

    upload_2021-5-8_18-1-26.png

    Both show how we levelled off each time we threatened to make something good of the season.

    * * * * *

    In terms of goals allowed our defence wasn't bad, but with an offence as offensive as ours, the defence would have had to have been brilliant. Another 20 goals on top of what we had would have done wonders. We have lost, or will (probably) lose, most of the scoring too this close season (Cook, Rowe, Novak, Donaldson etc.), so it's not just find another 20 to add, but find the first 50 or so...

    RCB
     
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