COVID-19

Virus now mutating again to a new strain and could do again and again to beat the vaccines

 

yep looks like it will be like getting the flu vaccine

 

This is why its important to ensure as many people globally are vaccinated.Just to be crystal clear, this is not a woolly lets help everyone thing its a practical public health issue. If we want continual new variants to come in then leave poorer countries behind. 3 of the most promising monoclonal antibody treatments in trials have all failed at tackling one of the three new variants. This is exactly what I was getting at @Bronco not some hippy rubbish

 

The media are loving this, gives them endless opportunity to fill hours with waffle on their 24 hour news channels.

 

I have no problem paying for vaccines for other countries to use, as soon as we have vaccinated everyone in the UK who wants once, but if you're suggesting we share the available vaccine before we have achieved that scenario once again we disagree, it doesn't work like that never has and never will even with your good intentions my friend.

 

His point, and it’s a perfectly reasonable one, is that it’s potentially more worth out while to vaccinate, say, someone from a developing nation that could spread a new strain of the virus here - than a 25 year old who less likely to contract the virus in the first place in a largely immune society.

I don’t think it will happen either, but there’s a compelling argument that the richer nations in the world would be net better off by preventing developing nations from effectively becoming mutation fermentation tanks.

 

As I said I have no problem with the wealthy countries funding the less fortunate but not at the expense of UK citisens, we have got to suppress the virus here first.

 

That’s the point I’m making. There’s an argument that this would be a net benefit for everyone, including ourselves - notionally at the ‘expense’ of UK citizens.

If we wait until we’ve vaccinated every last UK citizen regardless of their vulnerability, that might be enough time for the virus to mutate somewhere else in the world and render all of our work to date completely redundant. Developed nations putting themselves first is perhaps an overly aggressive strategy, like leaving a half fit striker on the pitch when you’re 4-0 up and hoping he doesn’t get injured.

 

Unfortunatly with vaccine being at a premium that won't happen, and maybe by the time pre-ordered quantities are delivered many richer countries will have the majority of their population vaccinated.

Like it or not the richer countries are not going to give their share of vaccines away as you know that's the way of life, although YungNath and your alternative has merit.

 

Is it not fair to say that the virus will mutate no matter what we do? It's already mutated between 4000 and 12000 times depending on which source you read over the course of about 14 months. It's just whether the mutations that occur turn out to be key.

Given a finite amount of vaccine wouldn't the chances of a 30 year old who hadn't had the vaccine in America being the carrier for a mutation be roughly the same as a 70 year old in Kenya.

Mutations seem to be the next big 'fear' factor - but they happen and to some extent we're powerless on that front. Keeping the vaccines flexible is the only real control we have over that,

 

The two vaccine centres that I’m aware of through work are actually laying staff off and cutting down the number of days they are open due to lack of availability of vaccine

 

But then surely the aim is to minimise the number of mutations so that you’re pushing back the chances of one arriving that is vaccine resistant further into the future and into a time when we can more easily counter it.

There are a few reasons why it would be preferable to avoid runaway case numbers in developing nations. Firstly, our sequencing is probably the best in the world - if a mutation happens here then we stand a better chance of spotting it and stopping it before it becomes endemic. Secondly, as a nation we can afford to suppress the R rate and minimise infections.

Most importantly though, if developing nations are not vaccinated quickly enough we will just have a constant cycle of on again, off again lockdowns until they are. The more the disease is allowed to freely circulate in these countries, the greater the volume it will eventually be brought here.

I wouldn’t really suggest we just stop vaccinating people and start elsewhere, but globally we need to increase the funding available to manufacture, distribute and administer vaccines to countries that can’t otherwise afford it - for our own medium and long term good. We’re already, with COVAX doing more than most, but everybody should be stepping this up a bit.

 

Countries lucky enough to have vaccine must to go with their own populations first as there is little point in doing as you say without vast quantities of the Covid vaccine at their disposal.
I'm not sure there is available manufacturing capacity hence the EU trying to stop any more vaccine coming to the UK as they want the vaccine for their people,
I'm not disagreeing with yours our YungNath general point, just pointing out that's not how the richer countries see or react on the situation.

 

All of the rest I agree with but these bits are key. I don't think "we" could fund any more manufacturing capability than is already available. So the simple fact is that to start vaccinating somewhere else you have to stop vaccinating in another place. It can't be both. Globally this is not a quick fix, it would probably take 10 years to vaccinate the whole world and even then it wouldn't kill covid-19 off.

So with regards to your first bit I don't see what difference it makes on the mutation front whether the virus is circulating around the under 50s in rich countries or in a poorer population. From an ethical standpoint I get it and it's a different argument but from purely a mutation point of view it doesn't make any difference.

 

Great I get my first dose of the Astra Zeneca vaccine yesterday to be told today it is not effective against the S A mutant. When will this end?

 

I read about that earlier.

It is effective against the South African variant, just not as effective.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-less-effective-against-south-africa-variant-researchers-find-12211340

 

We really do need to start pushing back on these ideas of perpetual restrictions.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/uk-news/massive-events-large-weddings-wont-19788856.amp

"I can't see us suddenly having another Cheltenham Festival with no regulations again, I can't see us having massive weddings with people coming from all over the world, I think for the next few years those days are gone"

Next few years???

Get lost!!!

The problem with following the infection science to the exclusion of everything else. People genuinely need to put their foot down about anything like this.

 

When your arms resemble "pin cushions"
There will be more and more variants that render the vaccine useless
Only having mine if absolutely forced so I can travel attend football matches etc
Otherwise wouldn't go anywhere near it

 

So they are now saying you need to pay for at least three PCR tests if you have arrived in the UK. Is this just a way of pricing people out of travel?

probably need a PCR to travel out, then one before you come back and then another two on return, so 4 in total. Average cost around £120 would mean best part of £500 per trip.

As they don’t seem to be making sure people isolate how will they enforce the testing?