Remaining Fixtures/Results/Points/Position Predictions

From their results, Crawley over ever seem to show up against a decent team. Hopefully we have enough but i just see a banana skin over easter, hope to be shown otherwise. Looking at Sutton, their unbeaten in 6 away games, lost just once away in 8 games in 2023 so far. From the stats, looks like Sutton do the Barrow tactic away from home, just sit very deep and narrow, invite the pressure and wait for the counter.

 

Sutton host Stockport , Swindon host Mansfield , Barrow go to Crewe. If we can get a win at Crawley and we are due something from our trips down there, lean pickings over the years, then we could almost secure a playoff place with a good result on Monday, though that would mean 3 wins in a row, a rareity for city.
Salford also have Orient I can see Carlise. Northamptonand and Stevenage all wining on Friday as they have fairly easy games , on paper!

 

This is the thing. Results in other games couldn't have gone any better for us last weekend but I very much doubt that we'll be as lucky over Easter, which makes it even more important that we win to keep up with the chasing pack.

 

At least three of them will not be wining and maybe 6 , if the three matches involving Sutton, Swindon and Orient finish in draws. we really need to win games, when are opponents play each other.
There will be lots of twists and turns before the end of the season, but it would be great going into the Northampton away game , with the auto's still possible.

 

4 points off 3rd place with 7 games to play with a game in hand and we have no chance????
Give ya head a wobble

 

Not a direct quote but this from WOAP sums up how I feel right now perfectly.... The season will end in either utter delirium or complete heartbreak, there is no in between.

 

Completely agree but sadly there is an in between for some, where if we lose in the playoffs they’ll see it as progress from last season rather than failure.

 

Fully agree with WOAP. If we miss out on autos I think it depends on when we know we cant make it, to see how it will hit. If we need a win going into the Orient match and don't get it, that will be a mood killer and will dent the squad going into the play offs. Where as if we stumble before say the Northampton game, it gives us a few games to get our heads right in time for the play offs. Either way, we need some experienced heads in the squad to keep everyones spirits up and see it as a positive that we still have a chance, than a negative that we have to do it the hard way.

You see it so often in the play offs, where the team that finishes within a few points of autos stumble in the play offs and the team that finished 5th/6th or in our leagues case 6th/7th end up going up. Usually the last placed teams climb their way up in the later stages and take that momentum forward.

 

I do agree with your comment regarding promotion I think most thought that was the goal for this season when purchasing their season tickets.
Certainly Hughes was under no illusion about what was required, but wether we like it or not failing getting promoted is not the end of the world we'll still have a very good squad to add to, but maybe I won't be too forgiving if we fail.

 

Absolutely, we seem to have hit form just at the right time aka 2013, interesting times ahead and looking like going another roller coaster ride, would we have it any other way been a City fan

 

Going to the wire is everything a neutral wants, nightmare of emotion to be involved in it though. Those last few games for all the teams make it that bit more challenging too, as there's a lot of teams who don't have you're typical "nothing to play for, already on the beach" type teams. Here's everyones last few fixtures for this down to the wire race, every team in bold is either currently still in with a realistic shout of promotion, or needing points to survive.

We have - Northampton (A), Crewe (A) & Orient (H)
Northampton - Harrogate (H), City (H) & Tranmere (A)
Stockport - Rochdale (H), Orient (A) & Hartlepool (H)
Carlisle - Barrow (A), Salford (H) & Sutton (A)
Stevenage - Swindon (A), Grimsby (H) & Barrow (A)
Salford - Walsall (A), Carlisle (A) & Gillingham (H)
Mansfield - Orient (H), Harrogate (H) & Colchester (A)
Barrow - Carlisle (H), Hartlepool (A) & Stevenage (H)

Hopefully by the final day we are still in with a shout, Orient have the title wrapped up and their players have already switched off. I think Stevenage having some mid table types and going to Barrow who will likely be out of the running by the final game gives them the edge to me to get into the autos. I dont back Carlisle at the minute and their run is terrible and Salford just cant find consistency. I think it's out of us, Northampton and Stockport for that last autos spot, and if it does go to the final day, on paper we have the hardest shot at getting 3 points.

 

I always assumed with the names in this squad, we would have a lot of big game experience. But having had a look though we aren't that experience across the board. If anyones listened to podcasts from ex pros on shows like under the cosh, some have mentioned before that first time of playing at Wembley it's overwhelming and some players just crumble. I remember in 2013, a lot was made of the fact our squad had played at Wembley just 3 months earlier.

Below guys have had either no experience of playing at Wembley, or very little experience of play off/wembley football who could have a chance of being in our matchday squads if we go there.

Halliday - came on in the 99th minute against Wimbledon in the second leg of the 2017 play offs. No wembley experience.
Platt - No play off or Wembley experience.
Bola - No experience, was at Rotherham when they won the EFL trophy in 2022, but he wasn't in the matchday squad.
Osadebe - No play off or Wembley experience.
Walker - No play off or Wembley experience.
Gilliead - Only play off experience was with us in 2017, he didn't come on the pitch at Wembley.
East - No play off or Wembley experience.
Chapman - Barnsley went twice in 2016, winning the L1 play offs and EFL Trophy. However, Chapman didnt get on the pitch for the play off final, had 2 sub apps in the legs. He came on in the 93rd minute in the EFL Trophy final.
Critchlow - No play off or Wembley experience.
Periera - No play off or Wembley experience.
Eisa - No play off experience, was an unused sub in Shrewsburys loss in the EFL trophy final 2018.
Costelloe - No play off or Wembley experience.
Stubbs - No play off or Wembley experience.

Of the players in the team with some experience of play off or wembley football, it's a mixed bag of success.

Lewis - Played in the Scottish play offs, lost in the semis over 2 legs. No wembley experience.
Ridehalgh - Won the play offs with Tranmere in 2018 & 2019. Runner up at Wembley in the EFL trophy in 2021.
Smallwood - won play offs with Rotherham in 2014.
Cook - Two wembley apps, he scored & won at Wembley with Tranmere in 2018, scored and lost in 2013 FA trophy.
Banks - No wembley experience, has played in the Scottish play offs.
Oliver - won L2 play offs with Northampton in 2020, scored in the 2nd leg. Won FA trophy with York in 2017.
Derbyshire - Played in the Greek play offs. Played once for England U21s at Wembley.
Clayton - runner up in EFL trophy 2010 with Carlisle. Runner up in Champ play offs with Middlesboro 2016. Lost with MK Dons in the play off semis 2011. Lost the play off legs to Villa in 2018.

With only Ridehalgh, Smallwood, Cook, Oliver and Clayton having any real Wembley experience, do we feel comfortable with our big game knowledge in the squad? Or do we think we have enough strong mentality that should deal with their first play off run without trouble?

 

First of all, great post! Amazing research, by the way. Just wanted to add that while you're focusing on the players, let's remember we have a very experienced manager and assistant manager. You may be right regarding experience of play off football or playing at Wembley might be key, but at this level, it's highly unlikely that many players across all of the squads have as much or more experience than the five players you have highlighted.

 

Something I only just clocked reading that because I hadn't looked into them.... Orient's last three games are VERY hard!!

 

Let’s hope the players don’t share your defeatist view.