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COVID-19

Discussion in 'General Chat' started by king karl, Feb 15, 2020.

  1. Storck

    Storck Regular Starter

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    Or he is saying the data doesn't support the plan?

    I'll believe today's announcement by Javid when it all actually happens. I think they have announced it today that everything will go, Boris will quit before and be replaced by which time something will have changed and calls for isolation to stay.
     
  2. Edin Nowhere

    Edin Nowhere Impact Sub
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    Javid was good blasting the myth of covid deaths today. He wants to dial away from the fear which has gripped people by confirming large numbers of deaths have nothing to do with covid, its just they happen to have had covid in the lead up to death. They also reaffirmed that 40%+ of people in hospital with covid are not there because of it.

    This should have been pointed out months and months ago, now we have people clinging on to these figures at face value, when the data behind it does not paint the same picture.

    Less people on ICU than in July.
     
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  3. Stafford Bantam

    Stafford Bantam Captain
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    The thing is months ago the 'deaths within 28 days of a positive test' were much more closely aligned with the ONS figures for 'COVID as casue of death on death certificates' and the the 'excess deaths figures', so there was no great need to highlight any differences. Then along came Omicron and things have changed.
     
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  4. Edin Nowhere

    Edin Nowhere Impact Sub
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    The latest NHS figures on with and of Covid have been released today.

    Hospitalised with Covid at the 18th Jan - 14,588
    Hospitalised because of Covid at the 18th Jan - 7,605

    Thats 48% of all reported figures in hospital with Covid being there for something else. This is getting higher on a weekly basis, it was 45% last week and 42% the week before 37% the week before that.

    When nearly 50% of all people in hospital with Covid are being quoted in daily figures but are being admitted for something else then you can't point to those figures nor can you then claim 28 days from a positive test is a good measurement anymore, as you say things have changed significantly.

    All I see on twitter is people saying removing restrictions when nearly 400 people died yesterday is wrong. The thing that is wrong is that 400 people happened to have covid in the month before they died, it probably had little to nothing to do with their death.

    I know restrictions have been removed based on Boris's political standing, but the data does appear to be there to suggest restrictions are doing very little at this stage and we are not being overwhelmed if you look through the raw figures without looking into the data behind the data.

    Out of interest going back to when with and because of Covid data was first released in July through to October, the split was 75% to 25%.

    There is a reason why Scotland and Wales won't publish this kind of data, as they are more pro restrictions and this data would give a reason against their stance.

    A month down the line and the rates in all 4 devolved nations will be pretty much the same regardless of what each country decides you can do. Just like it was in July through November.
     
  5. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    You're absolutely right and I think we discussed it at the time when Omicron popped up that there was a disconnect in the numbers.

    The problem is they didn't sort it. Now, if they actually tried to clarify the numbers it would look like they were attempting to fudge the figures rather than correct them.

    I can't really say anything negative about the data they provide in the UK but they should have been more proactive about correcting this.
     
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  6. Stafford Bantam

    Stafford Bantam Captain
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    Latest Zoe update from Professor Tim Spector.


    7:48 - "When you look at the countries that are doing worse than us, many of them like Denmark, France, Portugal, Italy, Spain have had more severe restrictions than we have in the UK and there isn't a clear correlation between the ability to supress the virus with those restrictions that's easily seen anyway".

    One thing we need to do with Omicron, is recognise how different it is and understand that mitigations that worked with Alpha and Delta may not be as effective (or could even have a negative impact) with Omicron.
     
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  7. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    You'd have got kicked off Twitter and branded a conspiracy theorist for suggesting something like that a month ago!!

    Glad they're eventually saying these relatively obvious conclusions out loud in the mainstream.
     
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  8. Stafford Bantam

    Stafford Bantam Captain
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    I'm not suggesting that restrictions don't work against Omicron, but we do need to gain further understanding of what restrictions may or may not work. We also need to understand that if a restriction just delays an outcome, then it may not be right to impose that restriction anyway. Before we had the vaccines, buying time was the right thing to do, now it has to be questioned as the whether or not it is necessary/helpful in terms of an overall strategy.

    Clearly, we still have a lot to learn about Omicron.
     
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  9. Storck

    Storck Regular Starter

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    Will be interesting to see what happens to figures after restrictions are changed next week but I think general reporting of figures will fall away over next month or so as we get back to a more normal life.
     
  10. Edin Nowhere

    Edin Nowhere Impact Sub
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    Lets remember what we are trying to achieve.

    We are trying to prevent the NHS from collapse. In December with Omicron there were question marks but real world data from South Africa was looking good. It suggested Omicron was far milder as Covid wasn't attacking the lungs, it was more mouth and throat based. Indy Sage and Prof Fergurson as usual acted like morons with sandwich boards walking the street declaring the end of the world was near.

    Now a month later we have found that the NHS won't collapse and the number of people in ICU is dropping.

    There is now no reason to prevent transmission so cases become irrelevant. If you have 3 jabs and catch Omicron you will just feel like shit for a few days, that is no reason to have any kind of restrictions upon your life now.

    I know this is driven by operation save blond oaf, but it is actually the correct action to take.

    Some people are still wrapped up as if it is April 2020, we have no vaccines or medicines and that anyone who gets it will end up in ICU. That is not the case and hasn't been for a long long time.

    If you feel safer wearing a mask, then wear one but we are at the stage now where getting omicron is not something to fear.
     
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  11. Rogered Tart

    Rogered Tart Regular Starter
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    Well God help you at the moment if you need the NHS though this covid malarkey. My dad is seriously ill and the service we've received all the way through has been nothing short of a disgrace. You'd think when visiting isn't allowed that they'd have a system where you can actually find out information, but feck me it's a joke. I would like be able to find out if my dad is actually dying or not, not too much too ask is it?
     
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  12. Faithful Bantam

    Faithful Bantam Squad Player

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    Sorry to hear that pal. And I sympathise with my own experience of the NHS. Its a fundamentally broken organisation and has been for a while. And its about to be stressed further by the completely illogical removal of thousands more NHS staff. Utter disgrace.
     
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  13. Tony Wilkinson

    Tony Wilkinson Squad Player
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    Jeeez RT, hoping the best for you and yer dad...
     
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  14. Rogered Tart

    Rogered Tart Regular Starter
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    Cheers Tone, appreciate thsie words.
     
  15. Rogered Tart

    Rogered Tart Regular Starter
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    Yeah I'm finding that out the hard way. Three weeks ago a Doctor came and prescribed him painkillers and told him to come back in a month. He couldn't move FFS. My brother kicked up a fuss and another doctor came last week and rushed him in and then we get a diagnosis of lung cancer. I have no faith whatsoever either in the NHS nor the incompetents that run this country.
     
  16. Faithful Bantam

    Faithful Bantam Squad Player

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    That's horrendous. We've become an inhumane society. We're rotting as a species. Feels like COVID has become so disproportionate that everything else has lost any sense of relevance or perspective.
     
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  17. Idlebantam

    Idlebantam Squad Player
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    So sorry to hear what you and your family are going through mate, especially your dad of course.

    I hope he improves soon and pulls through.

    My recent experience with my dad Is totally opposite.

    My dad was admitted to BRI on 2nd January, and although I wasn't allowed to visit, the ward he was admitted to were brilliant keeping me up to date until his eventual discharge. Not sure whether it's his age, he's 93, but the follow up he received at home was spot on for a couple of weeks after.

    Thankfully he appears much better, although not quite up to putting himself through to sitting at Valley Parade tomorrow.

    I hope me telling you of our different experience hasn't upset you more and I wish you and your dad all the very best mate
     
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  18. Rogered Tart

    Rogered Tart Regular Starter
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    Thank you Idle I appreciate the words. Unfortunately I've just found out it's past the point of no return, I wish the level of care we are receiving now would have been there the past two years.
     
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  19. RCarol

    RCarol Squad Player
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    That's absolutely awful.
    So pleased there's better care in place for him now.
    Regards
     
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  20. Faithful Bantam

    Faithful Bantam Squad Player

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    My heart goes out to you and your family.

    So many awful stories of the impacts of government/social policy in dealing with COVID.

    I hope he spends his remaining time in peace and comfort with you all.
     
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