COVID-19

Because in my experience local authority teams are stripped to the bone anyway (probably wider discussion) and are less ready and able to recruit hundred or thousands of people to grow the existing small teams. For all their faults that is exactly what the consultancy firms and the outsourcing companies can can do basically immediately. They have the infrastructure but not necessarily the detailed experience whereas the LAs are the other way around. It's why a mix is probably the best way to go,

As I've said numerous times I would hope the specalists were involved in the training.

Have you got anything to show how the cases are split to show they're not taking the easy ones or lower volume? i genuinely can't find anything and I'm not actually sure that knowing the geography of a local area would account for a 30-40% difference in success.

Germany are the only country I would consider although helped originally by their excellent existing laboratory infrastructure. Korea did it by doing what we would consider an impingement of liberty. Any others apart from Germany? So is that one in the Western world? That would be weird considering it's apparently so easy.

Yeah I saw that article and it's a little misleading wouldn't you agree. It makes out like it's from a single person in regards to a single case whereas it's really from two people (more if you include the kids) receiving them due to a number of interconnected cases and half the calls weren't answered so I'm not sure they should really be counted in the same way. They're also including calls to check up on them and give advice. Is it overkill? maybe, but not by a massive amount, is the figure of 60 misleading? Definitely,

 

So why not pay the recruitment specialists to help the LAs increase their team sizes? That way you'd get the best of both worlds.
LAs all over the country were begging the government to give them more resources and let them get local boots on the ground. But they were cut out of the loop for ideological reasons. As a result the government has spent billions and wasted six months setting up a system that is clearly not fit for purpose.

The track records of Serco, G4S and Dido Harding are appalling. There's no way any of these incompetents should still be let anywhere near essential public services. It's a disgrace that they keep getting contracts from this government, especially for the vital business of track and trace in a pandemic. Lives are being lost because of cronyism and dogma.

 

Because that's not the way they decide to go. They decide to use the companies who are experts in infrastructure to do those type of things. It doesn't mean it's right but it doesn't mean it's wrong either.

As for the other bits have you actually got anything about the different case load or case type between the centralised T&T and the LAs because I genuinely can't find it and the discrepancies make no sense.

The fact that only Germany has got to the bottom of it well to this point does indicate that it's a general problem rather than specific to the way this country has gone about it.

 

Those companies may be experts in recruitment but they sure as hell aren't experts in track & trace. It's ridiculous to entrust such a vital service in a time of national emergency to companies that have no expertise in delivering the required service. Paying recruitment experts to help upsize the local authority teams was the obvious way to go, but was deliberately shunned.

No I don't have specifics about cases. But I do clearly recall several local authorities in northern areas with large Asian populations begging the government months ago to give them more resources so that they could get into the communities that Serco et al clearly weren't reaching. They weren't trying to cherry pick the easy cases, they were offering to take the hard ones, but were ignored.

 

You can buy plain digestive biscuits but not chocolate covered as that would break oh so many rules..... !!

 

Nobody is an expert in pandemic track and trace and trying to link it exactly to food poisoning or sexual health tracking is obviously flawed. It's more complicated than just recruitment, its infrastructure that isn't there outside of emergency circumstances. However if you want to believe that it's a simple as just picking 100 randomers from the job centre and setting them off to work then fair enough.

I'm not sure that information about the local T&T helps at all to be honest. I can imagine that language or cultural barriers don't help but that wouldn't account for a 40% difference in success.

 

Tell that to Serco then

 

The map in this article confirms what I've been saying for the last week or two. It's very mixed but look at all the places where Covid fell between the first and second week of October, especially in the South. I reckon it's got a bit better in the third week of October, too. So why is much of the South's Covid activity falling without significant restrictions even though schools and universities going back spiked cases all over the place in September? Why is it fading out on its own in much of the South?

Https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-englands-coronavirus-cases-rising-22889937

 

You've been saying everything has been get better since April and guess what we are all in some bloody tier rule.

It's not fading out in the south most are in moving up to tier 2.

 

I saw that map during the briefing and it did look relatively positive (I nearly tagged you!) which seems at odds with the actual overall increases across the nation.

Looking at the lesser affected areas it looks like the reasons might be socio economic (less densely populated rural areas, areas with less industrial work where home working is more prevalent, more affluent areas, etc. etc) and it also looks to be places that have never shown a massive spike previously so marginal restrictions like the rule of 6 could have higher impact. Of course there are outliers but that seems to be the general pattern.

It would be very interesting to compare that map to any similar analysis they did during wave 1.

 

What infrastructure to set up a nationwide track and trace system from scratch with no prior expertise do Serco have? They quickly amassed a small army of raw recruits, fed them a PowerPoint and then left most of them sitting by their phones doing nothing for weeks on end. They used a database rather than a spreadsheet FFS! That reveals either an astonishing level of ignorance or cost cutting to maximise profits over effectiveness. Either way it's scandalous.

What expertise does Dido Harding have in running public services? What qualifications does she have for the job other than being mates with senior Tories?

Local authorities around the country offered their services and expertise and asked for additional money to run locally based services. Given how underfunded and overtasked most LAs now are, do you honestly believed they'd have volunteered for this large and onerous extra role if they didn't think they could do it properly?

Of course nobody is an expert in pandemic track and trace. But the core skills of track and trace are clearly transferrable. The most likely explanation for the 40% success difference is that the local authority teams know what they're doing and Serco don't. But you seem unwilling to accept that as a possibility.

 

We can go round in circles with this because while I'm happy with a balanced approach you will never be satisfied that the late private sector companies had a part to play.

Wasn't the excel issue with PHE rather than Serco?

You're focusing purely on the recruitment. What about the IT systems that had to integrate with a brand new testing output, what about setting up virtual call centres while still protecting data, what about the risk management, what about the insurance implications, what about GDPR, what about all these logistical problems. Imagine every LA trying to do their own thing across all those aspects and more and then imagine the gaps it could create from place to place with everyone doing their own thing.

Those things are what firms like Serco do and their whole reason for existing is that they can do it regardless of the underlying reason. Give them a task and they'll set the infrastructure up. I'm not sure Dave from the clap clinic has the same capabilities.

I don't want to get dragged into a discussion about Harding because I don't think she should have got the job either.

No, that isn't the most likely explanation and there's no point guessing. Like all the other things involved in analysing stuff like this the devil will be in te details and theres no point assuming.

 

You are trying to blame me for political actions? I said in the first wave that politicians seemed to be constantly 2 or 3 weeks behind.. What's changed?

 

I posted several times that English cases looked to be levelling out around the 5th/6th of October and might even be have started falling in some places if you adjusted for the increased testing - though I noted a continued rise in the West Midlands. (Note that the trend looks to have improved slightly since the end date of these graphs and I expect them to show modest declines - though maybe still not in parts of the Midlands which continues to be a problem for some reason.)

 

Nothing has changed and I have hammered the government load of times.

However, the government scientist and the government claim it's not reducing.

Look, I would do things differently then the government and I fully believe that the government only made changes to the job retention money because things will start hitting the south.

Unfortunately, things are not improving only 15% of the test results are getting back within 24 hours. The tracing system is rubbish and everything is all over the shop at the moment but you post the links and still on a Saturday none of us can go to watch Bradford City.

What's more worrying is that we don't have a end date for all this.

 

You have and it looks like that's probably wrong as well.

The results back for the 19th are the highest so far and about 35% higher than the 6th. The increased testing is a misdirection when the positivity rates are going up as well. here's a simple reason why in most cases the data looks like it peaks 2 weeks ago but when it plays out it doesn't always follow.

The amateur data analysts on Twitter who have tied themselves into a positive view of herd immunity and limited growth are really stretching now.

It's probably more likely that you and the amateur analysts are 2 - 3 weeks in front.

 

It's simple really. If things were improving then I don't think after spending billions the government would want to spend more billions.

I don't see people in the south being able to watch Arsenal, Gillingham or any other football team. I see everyone all in a tier of some kind. I don't see those in T1 moving into no tier and back to full normality.

I don't know if the government or whoever is dressing up stats but in life money tends to talk and yesterdays government extra money highlights everyone is in this no matter if you live in Hastings or Newcastle.

 

As expected

 

What do you think that pie chart is measuring and showing?