COVID-19

It won't stand in court.

There is a law now and you have to wear a mask. End of. I don't see how that is so hard.

If the shop workers now have to wear a mask by law they are not going to let people in without one now when it's law to wear one.

Shop online if you don't want to wear a mask..It's that simple.

 

Quick question.

what colour is the sky in your world?

 

Things like this will no doubt have happened since the criteria they use for the official count is any death less than 28 days after a positive test.

But people like the motorcyclist won't have had Covid put on their death certificate - another way of counting.

And neither of these instances will account for the 65k+ excess deaths so far I wouldn't think. That figure can't just be coincidence surely?

 

Still attempting to lump the blame on the public I see old Boris. Can get f*cked



A little reminder for everyone. Don’t blame your mate or neighbours or dob them in as you’re being to asked to do. The blame lies firmly at our governments door

 

All the restrictions that have been imposed, and it’s the mask wearing that gets people in a flap. I don’t really get that.

 

There are three generally touted figures for excess deaths and they're roughly 45k, 55k and 65k. Looking at how they're worked up, I disagree with them all but reckon the realistic figure compared to the 5-year average is likely about the 50k mark. The trouble is that you do not measure excess deaths against the 5-year average unless the demographics are static, i.e. you do not have an ageing population. Our population IS aging. Deaths have been rising around 7k per year. That means 2020 would have been 21k above the average of 2015-2019 before any excess deaths occurred. You need to knock the demographic effect off any excess deaths figure which quotes "versus the 5-year average". We're nearly 3/4 into the year so knock 15k off my 50k figure. I make deaths in excess of the expected demographic rise for the year to date is around 35,000. This is worse than a bad flu - but not by much. It ties in with my previously often repeated suggestions since about June that mortality might be about 0.3-0.4%, where most blood studies of that time around the world congregated, and now which Whitty and Vallance now seem happy to adopt for their projections. (Once in a decade bad flu is about 0.3%.)

 

The problem with that outlook is a medical one not a political one.

No matter how much Boris has messed up the virus is being spread by the public, not the government.

 

Isn’t that the story for every virus and will be until the end of time? Of course it’s been spread by the public.
It’s the governments job to protect the public. They failed from January onwards and are still failing

 

Yes, and if the rules aren't good enough that on them (certainly not saying the rules are good enough)

But if your neighbour is flouting the rules that on them as well. Personal responsibility is always key unless you want to live in a government controlled state which I don't.

 

Course you should wear a mask if you shop online......what if your computer has a virus.. ?

 

I agree with your logic but not completely on the maths.

England and Wales Deaths - couldn't find the full UK

2015 - 529,665
2016 - 525,048
2017 - 533,253
2018 - 541,589
2019 - 530,841

But i agree that we do have an aging and growing population that needs to be accounted for as well but I can't be bothered with doing that! There's a lot of different ways for to look at excess deaths though and none of them should really be prestented as facts without heavy caveats.

 

Whatever colour I want it to be.

I dream big!

 

Websites you frequent - your computer probably has a whole raft of STD's

 

Them dirty midgets get into my computer.

 

You're getting very selective in your statistics. It took me seconds to find UK deaths.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281488/number-of-deaths-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/

How about we look at the slightly longer period from when the baby boom effect actually kicked in that you can see on the chart. Between 2011 and 2019, UK deaths rose from 552k to 616k. 8 years saw a 54k rise. How much is that per year? It's slightly less than 7k per year but 2019 was a mild flu year so the trend is likely a whisker higher. 7k per year needs to be knocked off excess deaths trends. That's 21k or 400 per week when comparing against an average of the previous 5 years. Ignoring this 21k is misleading.

UK excess deaths measured against this trend is about 35k. I think it's consistent with Covid mortality of 0.3-0.4% on 10m UK people infected at the end of the first wave. My suspicion is the available infection pool was probably around 20m-25m and the rest had some kind of immunity from previous coronavirus infections (as per several scientific papers). That means we now have 10-15m people left in the pool but 50 to 55m people won't catch it from here. That's roughly the sort of figures you might have ahead of a bad flu year. Once these 20% of local authority regions that missed wave 1 and are getting wave 2 finish, it will probably just behave like any other flu virus and flare up every few winters once we have a few years of unexposed kids add to the uninfected pool.

 

I'm not - You specifically mentioned the period between 2015-2019 so that's all I looked at but it was your choice of timeframe.

Or we could go for a much longer period all the way back to 2000 I suppose? All these things are fine measurements but i suppose the point is that these things aren't linear and changable so we probably shouldn't apply linear and static projections.

And that's fine, I'm happy with you guessing all of those figures.

 

Okay. I withdraw the accusation that you were being selective. It was just bad luck. 2015-2019 was not my choice of time frame. That is the period chosen for the 5-year average that media keep misleadingly comparing to. As you see above, my choice of time frame is from when the baby boom effect starts lifting the annual mortality numbers from 2011.