COVID-19

Thanks for confirming they had an out of date map at the briefing. East of England peaked on Sept 2nd (7-day ave on the 5th). Southeast and Southwest regions both peaked on September 4th. London peaked on the 7th. East Midlands peaked on the 7th That's 20, 18, 18, 15 and 15 days ago - all comfortably falling for rather more than 6-8 days! The southern 40% of the UK turned down over two weeks ago at we were being told young people were spreading it in pubs. How do you explain that if it's not more herd immunity in the south?

 

Not sure I said table service only did I? 95% I have been in have stopped you entering if there is no table available for your group to sit down at. Be that outside or inside. By that token they are already restricting the numbers in the door and ensuring people can sit apart where possible.

I’d be happier if the government came up with some solid plans and stopped this lucky dip of measures. If they actually delivered on one thing they promised in the last 6 months to give the country a fighting chance. That’s what I want. I don’t anywhere to shut.

Well I’ll tell you now like I said to you weeks ago, that the lock lockdowns won’t work, this will not work. You can wait I know we will see no difference

 

They will always use 2 week old data because..........newer data isn't complete.

Yes, you're quite right, those specific areas are flat or are going slightly downwards. But they're mostly rural areas with low starting points of virus spread so increased transmission is going to be slow.

I'm not sure whether London's peak of the 7th will hold up in a couple of days. It will likely follow the national trend shortly. If the peak is still the 7th by this Sunday then I'll be surprised.

I'm not sure it is still young people spreading it in pubs now that it seems to be creeping up through the age demographics. Not really looked into it.

 

You are quite right, I see what you mean. They are now restricting numbers and restricting time.

I'm not fussed about the government but i'm not sure how you come up with solid plans in a movable situation.

Well the last lockdown worked I suppose, I'm happy to see whether restrictions in the middle ground work but they're going to keep pushing interactions down as the rate goes up so we might as well get used to it because there are no other alternatives open to them.

 

I wouldn't pretend to have all the answers and I don't think it'd be easy or 'clean'. But surely it'd be easier and cleaner than the devastation and disruption that the current approach causes?

Some speculative ideas. 1 specific day per week assigned to over 60s for access to Supermarkets, Pubs, Restaurants.
If you have anyone in your household over 60, or 70, you're not allowed socialize between households
Create temporary, shielded accommodation for people over a specific age. Public transport facilities that separate age groups.

There'd be a lot to wade through, lots of logistical complications and exceptional cases to consider - but wrapping a support and shielding system around people over 60, and further measures if you're over 70, has to be a simpler, more balanced and less destructive approach than doing it for everyone?

 

I think the supermarket pub restaurant thing has some merit but it would be the same old complaint (why can I sit in a pub with 50 strangers but not with my Dad)

The rest of it is so difficult though. if we let the virus run through the rest of the population we need to recognise that there will be a lot more young people infected percentage wise so any time a person over 60 comes into contact with anyone who has been out and about it will be more likely they'll get it. That makes childcare & work a massive issue and I'm not sure any 60 year old is going to agree to being moved into an effective care home.

 

Just off down to Asda to get me bog rolls, paracetamol and hand sanitiser in before lockdown #2 -the sequel.

 

Good point! Will I be allowed to drink at home after 10PM though? It's all rather confusing.

 

Yep, a lot of difficult situations. And no easy answers. Any approach is likely to be unpalatable, I'm just trying to think of ways to find a better balance.

The answer to the 'why can I sit in a pub with strangers but not my dad' - I think this answer is a simple one; if your dad is over 60 (likely nearer 70), then it might cost him his life. Is it worth it? I think a much more focused view of who's at material risk than the current approach. On the childcare point - many grandparents do provide free childcare, but when you look at the cost of shutting down the economy and furloughing millions, then the costs of providing free childcare for a year or two, would pale into insignificance. And my point around over 60 accommodation, I'm not suggesting it should be forced. I'm suggesting it could be an option where you have multi-generational families living under 1 roof, to minimize the risk to the older household members and minimize the restrictions to younger family members.

 

Oh I know the answer to the pub question but you can see it coming.

On the childcare thing parents seem to suggest that if they can't get the grandparents to look after kids, pick them up from school etc them they can't actually go to work anyway so it all just filters down. It's why childcare has just been formally allowed for the purposes of two households mixing again.

People just aren't going to go for a situation where families are officially split up down age lines.....no matter how much sense it makes unofficially. Especially when it mean Mum having to move out or nobody else being allowed to work or go outside.

 

Yes... but you can't wipe yer arse though.

 

Possibly. But people have had a taste now. When you start closing pubs, stopping the football and preventing people from going for a fortnight of sun in Spain, you start to see people's mindset around priorities change.

 

Furlough has to be extended now surely?

 

Definitely. The government shouldn’t be forcing places to turn away willing customers, like football clubs and theatres etc, without adequate measures to protect jobs and businesses. If they do, they’re even bigger shithouses than I thought.

 

Well retail have to wear staff have to wear masks now and shops/retail not talking no masks seriously will be fined.

 

Government says no.