COVID-19

Also depends on layout of school buildings, old cramped ones v newer more spacious areas...

 

Yes as you say in certain commuiale areas the wearing of mask will be required, that makes sense, and IMO the heads taking responsibility for their individual school is also the correct way to go.

 

On the where will it end thread, I have previously said numerous times that migration, migrant workers and tourism from Eastern Europe (and earlier from the Indian subcontinent), where the virus was very active, was fuelling summer hotspots in Western Europe and that I hoped the hotspots would fade due to some herd immunity when it faded in Eastern Europe (and India etc.). This seems to be happening. You complained it was all supposition and I did not present enough facts. Well that article presents some information to back it up.

Blood sampling previously showed higher levels had antibodies. New York rose to 25% before falling back. London levels rose to a peak of 15.8% but have nearly halved since. Antibodies fade over time. The liver usually reabsorbes them if not needed (but memory cells will make them again quickly if needed). This means people that get infected at different times peak at different times so you never correctly measure the total accumulated figure. London probably actually peaked at 20%+ if they could measure each person as they peaked and New York at maybe 30%+. But also, three scientific papers have shown some people fight the virus off without generating enough antibodies to test positive - possibly as high as 2/3rds of all cases (usually asymptomatic). This could mean that London and New York would have tested at 20%+ and 30%+ if they had all been tested at peak and many more than this would have actually fought it off with only T-cells, meaning London and New York might have already seen 50% or more get infected and fight it off. The self-reporting website showed other major UK conurbations had similar levels of self-reported symptoms as London so they might also have seen over 50% fight it off already. Most UK big cities could already be close to herd immunity that can not be meassured by testing. I'm not saying they are but I'm saying the science allows that they could be and it could explain patterns of large waves before lockdown, and then much smaller ones after unlocking, across western Europe.

Did you expect no pub outbreaks? Herd immunity is not all or nothing - talk about above or below a wall at 60% is nonsense. There are shades of grey. 20% immunity slows the rise. 40% sees new outbreaks fall away slowly. 60% sees it fall away quickly. Immunity is not evenly spread though. Statistical chance dictates that odd places get missed like embers in a bonfire. If you bring in new sources of infection, or a new pool of uninfected people, from tourism and migration, you will always find small pockets that flare up. Sread bits of wood on embers or embers on bits of new wood and they catch fire and burn. It does not mean you will have a big bonfire again, though. Local outbreaks as people remobilise is a normal part of a pandemic fading. If there is enough herd immunity around them, they will still fizzle out. LocaI outbreaks do not contradict herd immunity. We still get flu outbreaks year in and out amongst a few people that missed previous years and few new young that have not been exposed yet. They never go away. It does not mean the rest of us do not have more or less herd immunity just because there are a few flu outbreaks. Covid will likely behave like this when it settles down. The number of minor outbreaks now seem awfully low if most people have yet to be infected. The fact they are so few and do not seem to spread more widely is actually further evidence of significant immunity for me.

 

I've never said anything about tourism. The previous discussion was simply about migrant workers coming back to the UK where they had missed out on "immunity" from our first wave, caught it overseas during the Eastern European wave and then were now showing as being infected in the UK. The article literally says the opposite and that it isn't down to migrant workers.

Tourism is a completely different thing. That makes perfect sense that people with no immunity go to a country which is a hotspot and let their hair down - as you would do on holiday - are then an increased risk to pick up the virus.

If you go from working from home, being cautions, etc in your normal life to a situation where you are exploring, eating out more often, drinking more often, living in close quarters with others, etc, etc, then of course they will be of increased exposure.

The fact that German people can go to Serbia or Croatia and pick up the virus means there is no immunity in Germany and if their behavior changes and their exposure to the virus increases they will catch it. That is the whole point of the article.

 

My Mrs has tought classes where girls wear burkas and she says it is difficult to tell how well the pupils are aborbing information. Wearing masks will impede the quality of teaching.

Peru, Japan, Mexico, Hong Kong, Philippines and Australia have shown that masks only slow spread and do not stop it. Wear masks to flatten the curve - yes. Wear masks to stop spread of low levels in schools. Probably won't work. Masks have stopped spread nowhere.

 

Confirmation bias. The fact they're tracking and tracing the outbreaks is limiting their spread. If everyone just got on with business as usual it would flare up again just like it did in March.

 

Was said to be one of the safest places in Europe
Dont seem that way now!
https://www.majorcadailybulletin.com/news/local/2020/08/25/71469/balearics-record-900-new-coronavirus-cases.html
its one of the quietists now the tourists have fled

 

Update, only in Spain
https://www.majorcadailybulletin.com/news/local/2020/08/25/71471/latest-balearic-coronavirus-cases-include-data-update.html

 

* The government has now admitted that the figure of 908 for the 24-hour period was an error and that it was a "data update" with numbers of cases from last week.

 

People can go on about what should have been done with regards the handling of Covid-19 and fair play there have been some poor decisions made, face masks in schools being the latest, for me to judge a government before the pandemic is over is unfair, as you say Spain was looking good with there stricter lock down etc but it looks to have flared up again, as the case in a few countries in the world who were being held up as a great example of what the UK should have done.

 

We had a strict must wear a mask all the time
Many Tourists seem to think it did/does not mean them if they wear a smile!
Many bars/cafes, restaurants and hotels have now closed

 

An interesting article from the Express.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1327623/coronavirus-news-Citriodiol-insect-repellent-covid19-british-armed-forces-coronavirus-vacc

 

Not only in Spain. UK's bumper 1522 figure reported yesterday was only about 600+ cases from the day before. About 700 were from the previous week and 249 over a week old. They are not just test results from yesterday so don't assume the reported trend matches the new cases trend you would get if allocated by the correct date. Increasing testing also distorts that . You really need to check the positives hit rate on testing (see next post), although even that can be distorted by inconsistent geographic spread.

 

There's a clearer pattern on the peaks in EU testing hit rates after the summer's "wave 2" slight rises through July. (Large rises in June and July in Eastern Europe.)

Country Peak Date

Romania Aug 10th
Netherlands Aug 16th
Sweden Aug 11th
Poland Aug 18th
Greece Aug 17th
Italy Aug 16th
Ireland Aug 9th
Germany Aug 9th
Norway Aug 11th
UK Aug 19th
Denmark Aug 17th
France Aug 17th
Belgium Aug 12th
Switzerland Aug 16th

Https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&minPopulationFilter=1000000&time=2020-07-17..latest&country=BEL~AUT~BGR~DNK~FIN~DEU~GRC~IRL~ITA~NLD~NOR~POL~SWE~CHE&positiveTestRate=true&interval=smoothed&aligned=true&hideControls=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

You'll note Spain is missing as it has not peaked yet. However, as with hospitalisation trends , there is quite a suggestion that "wave 2" might have peaked roughly 2 weeks ago.

 

Looks like restrictions have been lifted in 9 of Bradford 30 wards. Now even more confusion as people have crashed Council website pages that show the ward maps

https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18684291.local-covid-19-restrictions-lifted-nine-30-council-wards-bradford-district/

 

No real surprises there @Storck
Areas in Bradford, where restrictions are being lifted:

• Worth Valley
• Craven
• Ilkley
• Baildon
• Bingley
• Bingley Rural
• Shipley
• Wharfedale
• Windhill and Wrose