Spain
Austria
Round of 32 · Thursday 2 July, 20:00 BST · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Spain are the only side at this tournament yet to concede, and they head into this having topped their group without breaking sweat. Austria deserve credit just for being here, making their first World Cup since 1998, and Ralf Rangnick's pressing identity has made them one of the more watchable teams of the group stage. But Spain are a different test to Algeria or Jordan, and this is the moment the gap in class usually shows.
Spain — La Roja
Unai Simón should start in goal behind a back four of Marc Cucurella, Aymeric Laporte, Pau Cubarsí and Pedro Porro. Dani Olmo, Rodri and Pedri look set to make up the midfield three, with Alex Baena and Lamine Yamal either side of Mikel Oyarzabal up top.
The big news is the absence of both Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino, who both picked up knocks against Uruguay and are unlikely to feature here. Williams suffered an adductor injury from a tackle that had no business being legal, and Pino has an acromioclavicular sprain. Neither looks like a short-term return. That hands Baena the starting wide role, which is a different kind of threat to Williams: more interior and combination-based than a direct runner, but still a genuine creative option. The right-back call between Porro and Marcos Llorente could go either way, with de la Fuente tending to prefer Llorente against more physical opposition and Porro when Spain are expected to dominate; against Austria, I'd lean toward the latter. The third-midfield spot has rotated across the group stage between Olmo, Fabián and Merino; Olmo should get it here given how well he's performed against sides that sit deep.
Austria — Das Team
Alexander Schlager should start in goal. David Alaba was substituted with a knock against Algeria and looks doubtful, so Kevin Danso is likely to step in beside Philipp Lienhart in the back four. Xaver Schlager and Nicolas Seiwald would sit as the double pivot, with Marcel Sabitzer, Romano Schmid and Konrad Laimer across the three attacking midfielder spots. Michael Gregoritsch looks to have the edge up top, though Marko Arnautovic and the late-game impact of Sasa Kalajdzic, who won it against Algeria at the death, make this front line hard to be certain about.
Rangnick has been creative with his shape depending on the opponent. If Paul Wanner or Chukwuemeka earn a start, I'd expect Laimer to shift to right wing-back and Stefan Posch to left, with Phillipp Mwene dropping to the bench, which would give Austria more width and flexibility but also ask more defensively of those wing-backs against Yamal and Baena. The system's vulnerability is familiar: they score, they give up chances, and against Spain that margin for error disappears quickly.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Lamine Yamal vs Austria's left side. With Williams gone, Yamal becomes an even bigger focal point for Spain, and whoever lines up at left-back for Austria faces a teenager who has already proven capable of winning knockout games on his own. Spain's whole attack starts from that side, and Austria have no obvious answer for it.
Prediction
The Opta supercomputer gives Spain a 71.5% chance of winning inside 90 minutes, with Austria on 11.1% and the draw at 17.4%. Spain haven't conceded all tournament and have kept Austria scoreless in all three of their previous meetings. I'd back Spain to control this comfortably, but Austria's press and Rangnick's willingness to be unpredictable mean it might not be as clean a scoreline as the percentages imply.
Spain 2–0 Austria — Yamal, Oyarzabal