Portugal
Croatia
Round of 32 · Friday 3 July, 00:00 BST · BMO Field, Toronto
Portugal and Croatia have never met at a World Cup before, and the individual storylines practically write themselves. Ronaldo, at 41, in what must be his last tournament. Modric, 40 years old and still running a midfield. Neither side looked completely convincing in the group stage, but both have too much quality to be dismissed lightly, and the winner gets either Spain or Austria in the last 16.
Portugal — A Seleção
Diogo Costa should start in goal behind a back four of João Cancelo, Rúben Dias, Renato Veiga and Nuno Mendes. João Neves looks likely to return to the starting XI alongside Vitinha as the double pivot, with Pedro Neto, Bruno Fernandes and João Félix in the three behind Cristiano Ronaldo up top.
The Portugal team looked a little weary against Colombia in the final group game, and with Martinez having rested key players there, I'd expect a more recognisable XI here. Neves coming back in alongside Vitinha gives them a more energetic midfield base than the combination they played with against Colombia, and Fernandes remains the engine of everything in the final third. The interesting call is whether Gonçalo Ramos pushes hard enough off the bench to merit a start over Ronaldo in a knockout setting; Martinez has always leaned toward Ronaldo when the stakes go up, and I don't expect that to change tonight.
Croatia — Vatreni
Dominik Livaković should start in goal behind a back four of Josip Šimunić, Josip Šutalo, Marin Pongračić and Joško Gvardiol. Petar Sučić, Luka Modrić and Mateo Kovačić look set to fill the midfield three, with Martin Baturina and Ivan Perišić either side of Ante Budimir up top.
Croatia have a clean injury table heading into this one and Dalic has had the luxury of planning without any significant personnel concerns. Modrić's legs are the one thing worth monitoring across a full 90, but Dalic has rarely been shy about asking too much of him and doesn't seem likely to start differently now. The defensive concern is real. Four goals conceded to England exposed the same gaps in transition that Portugal's wide forwards could punish tonight. Andrej Kramarić is probably the most dangerous option off the bench if Croatia need a different kind of threat in the final half hour.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Bruno Fernandes vs Croatia's midfield three. Fernandes has been Portugal's most important creative player all tournament, and how Sučić and Kovačić close him down between the lines will decide whether Portugal's attack functions in rhythm or gets stuck trying to manufacture chances from wide areas. If Fernandes gets time on the ball, Croatia's back four is going to be under pressure quickly.
Prediction
Portugal hold a significant edge on the betting markets, rated at roughly 50% to win inside 90 minutes compared to Croatia's 23.5% and a draw at 26.5%. The head-to-head history backs that up, six wins in eight meetings since 2005 for Portugal. Croatia have shown they can cause problems even against better sides, and Modrić and Kovačić can slow the game to a crawl if they get the right start, but Portugal's depth and quality should get them through by the second half.
Portugal 2–1 Croatia — Ronaldo, Félix — Perišić