USA
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Round of 32 · Thursday 2 July, 01:00 BST · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara
Expectations have never been higher for a USA side playing a World Cup knockout match on home soil, and they'll fancy this as the night they finally turn that pressure into a positive. History isn't on their side though, they've lost seven of their eight previous World Cup knockout matches. Bosnia, appearing in the knockouts for the very first time, have never kept a clean sheet across six World Cup matches, so goals feel likely whichever way this goes.
USA — Stars and Stripes
Matt Freese should start in goal behind a back three of Tim Ream, Chris Richards and Alex Freeman. Antonee Robinson and Sergiño Dest should provide the width either side of Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams in midfield, with Christian Pulisic and Malik Tillman just off Folarin Balogun up top.
There isn't much to take from the last group game beyond a reminder that Tim Weah probably shouldn't be getting another call-up any time soon, so I'd expect Pochettino to revert close to the lineup that opened the tournament. Pulisic only managed 20 minutes against Türkiye but should be close enough to full fitness to start here, and with a well-rested squad behind him this looks like as good a platform as the USA could hope for. It's tempting to assume a free run through to the next round given the history between these two sides, but I don't think this US squad has an easy night in them against opposition this hungry to make history of their own.
Bosnia and Herzegovina — Zmajevi
Nikola Vasilj should start in goal behind a back four of Sead Kolasinac, Stjepan Radeljic, Tarik Muharemovic and Amar Dedic. Kerim Alajbegovic, Ivan Sunjic, Ivan Basic and Amar Memic look set to make up the midfield four, with Ermedin Demirovic and Edin Dzeko paired up top.
Muharemovic returns at centre-back now his suspension is over, and Radeljic should partner him given he's been marginally more consistent than Nikola Katic or Dennis Hadzikadunic across the group stage, though it's by no means a certainty. Dedic should keep the right-back spot after edging ahead of Arjan Malić last time out. The really interesting call is in the middle, where Sunjic and Basic both look set to start together given Benjamin Tahirovic's dip in form, while Memic should edge out Esmir Bajraktarevic on the flank, with the manager valuing his defensive work even though Bajraktarevic's underlying creativity is the bigger long-term miss. Up front, Demirovic's place feels the least secure of the lot. His form hasn't been convincing, and Ermin Mahmic has offered more from the bench, so don't be surprised if that's the first change Bosnia make if things aren't going their way.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Christian Pulisic vs Bosnia's back four. Bosnia have never kept a clean sheet in six World Cup matches, and Pulisic returning to fitness at exactly the right moment gives the USA their clearest route to exploiting that record. If he's sharp from the start, Bosnia's defence has every reason to be nervous.
Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes the USA clear favourites, winning inside 90 minutes in 67.5% of simulations against Bosnia's 14.3%, with a draw rated at 18.3%, and an overall progression probability of 76.6%. The history is brutal reading for the Americans even so, just one win in their last 21 World Cup meetings with European opposition. I think home advantage and a well-rested squad get the USA over the line here, but Bosnia's lack of knockout pedigree shouldn't be mistaken for a lack of threat.
USA 2–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina — Balogun, Pulisic — Dzeko