Belgium
Senegal
Round of 32 · Wednesday 1 July, 21:00 BST · Lumen Field, Seattle
The ketchup bottle finally burst for Belgium against New Zealand after two stodgy draws to open the tournament, and they'll be hoping that's the version that turns up here. Senegal had a much tougher run through Group I, losing to both France and Norway, but a 5-0 demolition of Iraq on the final day was the perfect way to arrive at the knockouts.
Belgium — Red Devils
Thibaut Courtois should start in goal behind a back four of Maxim De Cuyper, Brandon Mechele, Nathan Ngoy and Timothy Castagne. Youri Tielemans and Hans Vanaken look set to sit in the two pivot roles, with Jérémy Doku and Leandro Trossard either side of Kevin De Bruyne behind Charles De Ketelaere up top.
Mechele should keep his place after three solid group games, and Ngoy looks the likely choice to return from suspension ahead of Arthur Théate. Zeno Debast remains a doubt, he still hadn't trained with the group as of the latest update, so I wouldn't expect him straight back into the XI even once he's available. The more interesting calls are further forward. Doku's manager kept insisting he wouldn't start before the New Zealand game and then picked him anyway, so with extra rest between fixtures I'd expect the same trick again here. Tielemans should keep his place in the middle purely on captaincy grounds even though plenty would argue Nicolas Raskin offers more alongside Vanaken and De Bruyne. De Ketelaere was excellent last time out without quite getting the goal his performance deserved, but Romelu Lukaku scored and assisted off the bench, so there's a real chance Tedesco turns to him earlier if this one isn't moving in Belgium's favour.
Senegal — Lions of Teranga
Mory Diaw should start in goal behind a back four of El Hadji Malick Diouf, Moussa Niakhaté, Kalidou Koulibaly and Krépin Diatta. Idrissa Gana Gueye and Pape Gueye look likely to sit in midfield, with Sadio Mané and Ismaïla Sarr either side of Lamine Camara behind Nicolas Jackson up top.
Antoine Mendy's injury is the big team news here, with the extent still unclear but it looking very likely he misses out, which should push Diaw into goal ahead of the more experienced Édouard Mendy. El Hadji Malick Diouf has an outside chance of being benched given the wider rotation options at full-back, but I'd be surprised if Thiaw made that change. Camara should retain his spot after a group stage where he led the entire squad for line-breaking passes, and Koulibaly should keep his place too despite a shaky individual performance last time out, he remains too important to this side to drop. The bigger question up top might be whether Sarr has now nudged ahead of Jackson as first-choice striker, given he's been directly involved in four goals this tournament, the joint-most by any Senegal player in a single World Cup.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Jérémy Doku vs Senegal's right side. Doku running at a Senegal back line that's already conceded six goals across three group games feels like the matchup that could decide this. If Belgium get him in space early, Senegal's defensive frailties could be exposed fast.
Prediction
The Opta supercomputer gives Belgium the edge with a 45.6% chance of winning inside 90 minutes against Senegal's 27%, with a draw rated at 27.4%, and an overall advancing probability of 59% to 41% once extra time and penalties are factored in. Senegal have lost their last four World Cup matches against European sides, but prior to that run they'd only lost once in their first five. I think Belgium's depth and quality just about gets them through, but Senegal's recent attacking form makes this a lot more competitive than the raw percentages suggest.
Belgium 2–1 Senegal — De Bruyne, Trossard — Sarr