England
DR Congo
Round of 32 · Wednesday 1 July, 17:00 BST · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
England head into this unbeaten in 11 competitive matches under Tuchel, but it's been a stop-start group stage rather than the statement run that record suggests. DR Congo, by contrast, are appearing at a senior World Cup for the first time since 1974 as Zaire, when they lost all three games without scoring. They've already rewritten that story just by being here, and they'll fancy giving England a fright on the way out.
England — Three Lions
Jordan Pickford should start in goal behind a back four of Nico O'Reilly, Marc Guéhi, Ezri Konsa and Djed Spence. Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson look set to sit in the two pivot roles, with Marcus Rashford and Bukayo Saka either side of Jude Bellingham behind Harry Kane up top.
Jarell Quansah's ankle is the one doubt hanging over this side, he twisted it in the win over Panama and it's a fairly close call whether he's risked here, so I'd expect Spence to get the nod ahead of him if it's still troubling him. Reece James and Tino Livramento both remain out, with James possibly facing the rest of the tournament on the sidelines. Rashford looks fine despite some hamstring tightness after playing the full 90 against Panama, and Anderson should keep his place after a group stage that's seen him lead the entire England squad for line-breaking passes, possession won and duels won. If Kane finds the net here, he'll draw level with Geoff Hurst for England knockout goals at a World Cup, with only Gary Lineker ahead of him on that particular list.
DR Congo — Leopards
Lionel Mpasi should start in goal behind a back three of Axel Tuanzebe, Chancel Mbemba and Steve Kapuadi. Arthur Masuaku and Aaron Wan-Bissaka look likely to provide the width either side of Noah Sadiki and Samuel Moutoussamy in midfield, with Edo Kayembe just off Cédric Bakambu and Yoane Wissa up top.
The system feels like the bigger question than any individual selection here. Against a side as dangerous as England, I'd expect Sébastien Desabre to fall back on the back three he used against Denmark, Portugal and Colombia rather than the more expansive 4-4-2 that worked against Uzbekistan, though there's a real chance he goes the other way given how well it just worked. Masuaku and Wan-Bissaka should provide the width regardless of shape, with Joris Kayembe the main alternative if either needs a rest. The midfield battle behind Sadiki is the genuine toss-up, with Mukau pushing for a recall after losing his place for the last group game. Up top, Wissa arrives as DR Congo's top scorer with three goals this tournament, including a brace against Uzbekistan, and Bakambu will know Fiston Mayele is breathing down his neck for that starting spot after coming off the bench to score.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Jude Bellingham vs DR Congo's midfield two. DR Congo ranked dead last for possession average in the group stage, so they'll be happy to sit deep and let England have the ball. The question is whether Sadiki and Moutoussamy can stop Bellingham from finding pockets between the lines, because if he gets time and space in behind their front line, England's quality up top should do the rest.
Prediction
The Opta supercomputer gives England a 73.9% chance of winning inside 90 minutes against DR Congo's 11.3%, with a draw rated at 14.8%. History backs England up too, they've never lost to an African side at a World Cup in eight previous meetings. I think England's quality eventually breaks DR Congo down, even if the first-ever World Cup knockout appearance for the Leopards gives them every reason to make this as awkward as possible for as long as they can.
England 2–0 DR Congo — Kane, Bellingham