Mexico
Ecuador
Round of 32 · Wednesday 1 July, 02:00 BST · Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
Back to where it all started for Mexico, who kicked the whole tournament off here and now return for a knockout tie against an opponent who know exactly how they tick. Mexico haven't conceded a single goal yet, which is the headline stat of the group stage, but Ecuador have already shown they can find a way past a defence as good as Germany's when it matters.
Mexico — El Tri
Raúl Rangel should start in goal behind a back four of Jesús Gallardo, Johan Vásquez, Edson Álvarez and Israel Reyes. Gilberto Mora, Érik Lira and Álvaro Fidalgo look set to make up the midfield three, with Roberto Alvarado and Julián Quiñones either side of Raúl Jiménez up top.
Rangel's been preferred between the posts over Guillermo Ochoa throughout, and on the back of three clean sheets there's no real reason for that to change now the stakes go up. The two spots that feel least locked in are Álvarez in defence and Mora in midfield, both of whom have plenty of competition for their places from the bench, Luis Romo or Orbelín Pineda for the latter in particular. Quiñones already became the first Mexican to score more than once in a single World Cup, so even with a fairly settled XI, there's real quality in reserve if Aguirre wants to freshen things up at the break.
Ecuador — La Tri
Hernán Galíndez should start in goal behind a back three of Joel Ordóñez, Willian Pacho and Piero Hincapié. Alan Franco, Nilson Angulo, Pedro Vite, Moisés Caicedo and Gonzalo Plata would make up the five across midfield, with Enner Valencia and John Yeboah paired up top.
No fitness concerns and nobody missing through suspension, since cards get wiped clean once the group stage ends, so this looks like the strongest XI Beccacece can put out. The only real question marks are at the edges, Angulo's place on the left and whether Valencia keeps his starting spot up front given the competition for places from Kevin Rodríguez and Jordy Caicedo. Finishing is the thing Ecuador really need to sort out. They created enough to beat both Ivory Coast and Curaçao by more than they did and paid for it, so the quality is clearly there, it's just been a question of taking the chances when they come.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Moisés Caicedo vs Mexico's midfield three. Caicedo is the engine that makes Ecuador tick from deep, and if he gets time on the ball against Lira and Fidalgo, Ecuador have a route into the game against a crowd that will be doing everything it can to rattle them.
Prediction
The Opta supercomputer gives Mexico the edge with a 46.4% chance of winning inside 90 minutes against Ecuador's 24.4%, with a draw the single most likely outcome at 29.2%. Mexico have lost just once in 12 World Cup matches as hosts, but they've also won just once in 14 meetings with South American opposition, and that solitary win came against this exact opponent back in 2002. I think the crowd and the clean sheet record just about see Mexico through, but this has the makings of a tight, low-scoring night either way.
Mexico 1–0 Ecuador — Jiménez