France
Sweden
Round of 32 · Tuesday 30 June, 22:00 BST · MetLife Stadium, New Jersey
France are the form team of the entire tournament right now, the only side alongside Argentina and Mexico to win all three group games, and they did it without really needing Mbappé and Haaland's big showdown to materialise. Sweden scraped through as one of the better third-placed sides and have landed about as tough a draw as they could have, but they've shown they can hurt anyone when the front end clicks.
France — Les Bleus
Mike Maignan should start in goal behind a back four of Lucas Digne, William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano and Jules Koundé. Adrien Rabiot, Michael Olise and Aurélien Tchouaméni look set to make up the midfield three, with Bradley Barcola and Ousmane Dembélé either side of Kylian Mbappé up top.
Désiré Doué and Théo Hernandez didn't do enough to hold onto their places against Norway, so Barcola and Digne should get the nod here instead. Saliba and Rabiot were both rested for that final group game once qualification was secure, and I'd expect both straight back in now it matters again. Dembélé walks into this off the back of a hat-trick, which makes him an almost impossible player to leave out regardless of who else is available, and Deschamps has so much attacking quality in reserve on the bench that Sweden genuinely can't plan for what arrives if France need to change things up.
Sweden — Blågult
Jacob Zetterström looks the likely choice in goal behind a back three of Gabriel Gudmundsson, Gustaf Lagerbielke and Victor Lindelöf. Elliot Stroud, Yasin Ayari and Alexander Bernhardsson would make up the wing-back and midfield line either side of Lucas Bergvall, with Anthony Elanga just off Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres up top.
Isak Hien's injury is the story that's reshaped this defence. He's out for the rest of the tournament, which pushes Gudmundsson into the back three and leaves Sweden needing reshuffles up and down that line. Stroud at left wing-back looks like the call, though I wouldn't be shocked to see further tweaks there given how attack-minded this setup already is against a France side that will punish any gaps. Zetterström only became first-choice last time out, so there's an element of seeing whether that selection holds rather than being a given. Bergvall and Elanga both started in a more attacking system last time, and Potter sticking with that approach here, against opposition this dangerous, is the bigger gamble in this team sheet than anything in defence.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Ousmane Dembélé vs Sweden's reshuffled back three. The reigning Ballon d'Or holder against a defence that's had to rearrange itself around an injury just days before the biggest game of Sweden's tournament. If Gudmundsson is still settling into life as a centre-back, Dembélé is exactly the kind of player who finds that out quickly.
Prediction
The Opta supercomputer barely sees a contest here, giving France a 75.1% chance of winning inside 90 minutes to Sweden's 9.5%, with the rest split between a draw and extra time. Sweden have only gone out at the first knockout hurdle twice in their last seven World Cup appearances, so there's pedigree there even if the form line points firmly one way. I think France's quality tells comfortably, but Sweden have the attacking pieces to make this more of a contest than the percentages imply.
France 3–1 Sweden — Mbappé, Dembélé, Barcola — Gyökeres