Germany
Paraguay
Round of 32 · Monday 29 June, 21:30 BST · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
Germany's first knockout match since they won the whole thing back in 2014, and it's fair to say the group stage didn't exactly suggest they're about to repeat the trick. A win over Curaçao that flattered them, a scare against Ivory Coast, then a defeat to Ecuador to finish. Paraguay, meanwhile, are just trying to do something they've never managed in five previous knockout ties: score a goal.
Germany — Die Mannschaft
Manuel Neuer should start in goal, with a back four of Nathaniel Brown, Antonio Rüdiger, Jonathan Tah and Joshua Kimmich. Aleksandar Pavlović and Felix Nmecha look likely to sit in the two pivot roles, with Florian Wirtz and Leroy Sané either side of Jamal Musiala behind Kai Havertz up top.
Brown's return at left-back was only ever a precaution after the Ecuador loss, so I'd expect the coaching staff to bring him straight back in for a knockout game, which also takes care of something that had been bugging me. The Rüdiger-Raum pairing on the left looked shaky against Ecuador, but with Brown likely back in and Rüdiger shifted across into the centre alongside Tah, that particular worry should take care of itself without anyone needing to change the system. Nico Schlotterbeck is out for the rest of the tournament with an ankle injury, which is a blow given his form earlier in the year, but with this back four otherwise settled it shouldn't be felt immediately. If Neuer starts, he becomes Germany's all-time leading World Cup starter, overtaking Lothar Matthäus and Miroslav Klose.
Paraguay — La Albirroja
Orlando Gill should start in goal behind a back five of Junior Alonso, Gustavo Velázquez, Gustavo Gómez, José Canale and Juan Cáceres. Matías Galarza, Andrés Cubas and Damián Bobadilla look set to make up the midfield three, with Miguel Almirón and Julio Enciso paired up top.
Alfaro looks likely to go with the five-man defence he's leaned on before against stronger opposition, and pairing Almirón with Enciso would make complete sense to me given how much technical quality and pace those two offer together. Diego Gómez misses out through suspension after picking up enough yellow cards along the way, and both Ramón Sosa and Omar Alderete look likely to miss out through fitness doubts rather than selection, neither appears to have done anything resembling a normal training session this week. Enciso has been the standout performer of the group stage regardless, leading the entire squad for chances created and high-intensity pressing, so Paraguay's hopes of finally breaking their scoreless knockout run probably run through him.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Julio Enciso vs Germany's double pivot. Enciso has created more chances than anyone else in a Paraguay shirt this tournament, and if he gets time on the ball between Pavlović and Nmecha, Paraguay have a route to the goal they've been chasing for five knockout games. Shut him down early and there isn't an obvious second source of creativity behind him.
Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes Germany clear favourites here, with a 54.7% chance of winning inside 90 minutes to Paraguay's 23.1% and a 22.3% chance of the game going to extra time. The history is brutal reading for Paraguay too, no side has gone longer without scoring in World Cup knockout football. I think Germany's class eventually tells, but I wouldn't be shocked if Paraguay's defensive solidity makes them work a lot harder for it than the percentages suggest.
Germany 2–0 Paraguay — Havertz, Musiala