Brazil
Japan
Round of 32 · Monday 29 June, 18:00 BST · NRG Stadium, Houston
Brazil's seven-goal scoring run without reply since going behind early on matchday one has them looking like the side everyone feared coming into this tournament, and Japan are the latest underdog standing in their way. Win this and the prize is a last-16 date with Norway or Ivory Coast. Lose, and it's a disappointing first-knockout-round exit for two nations who feel they should go further
Brazil — Seleção
Ancelotti looks set to go unchanged for the first time since taking charge. Alisson should start in goal behind a back four of Douglas Santos, Gabriel Magalhães, Marquinhos and Danilo, with Casemiro and Bruno Guimarães screening in front of them. Vinícius Júnior and Rayan look likely to flank Lucas Paquetá in the three behind Matheus Cunha up top.
Rayan should keep his place after the night he had against Scotland, when he became the youngest player on record to set up a Brazil goal at a World Cup. At 19, handing that wide spot back to Luiz Henrique would be a strange call given how seamlessly he's slotted in. Raphinha is technically back in frame now the knockouts have started, since the injury that ruled him out was only ever expected to cost him the group stage, but I'd guess he's fit enough for the bench rather than a recall straight into the XI. Neymar's return against Scotland was one for the history books in its own right, his first appearance in 981 days, and I'd expect him to be back among the substitutes again here rather than forcing his way into a settled front four.
Japan — Samurai Blue
Zion Suzuki looks the clear favourite to start in goal behind a back three of Hiroki Ito, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Shogo Taniguchi. Keito Nakamura, Daichi Kamada, Kaishu Sano and Ritsu Doan would make up the four across midfield, with Daizen Maeda and Ao Tanaka just off Ayase Ueda up top.
I'd half expected Ko Itakura to force his way into that back three given how well he's done covering for Tsuyoshi Watanabe, but he was substituted last time out with some discomfort and I don't think Moriyasu risks him from the start in a knockout match unless he's fully certain. Tomiyasu's experience and range with the ball would make him a perfectly good alternative anyway. The more interesting call is whether Tanaka pushes further forward alongside Maeda rather than sitting in midfield, which would tell me Moriyasu wants his energy closer to Ueda rather than screening in front of the back three, with Sano holding things together alongside Kamada instead. Takefusa Kubo remains out, which is a real loss given how much he and Kaoru Mitoma were supposed to carry in the final third between them, but Ueda has been excellent regardless and already has the joint-most goal involvements by any Japanese player at a single World Cup.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Vinícius Júnior vs Japan's back three. Vinícius has four goals already, the joint-most by a Brazilian in a single group phase alongside Ronaldo, Neymar and Jairzinho, and he'll fancy his chances running at whichever of Ito, Tomiyasu or Taniguchi gets isolated one-on-one. Japan's discipline as a back three has been excellent so far, but nobody they've faced has had a left winger quite like this.
Prediction
The Opta supercomputer gives Brazil a 57.7% chance of winning inside 90 minutes against Japan's 18%, with the rest split between a draw and extra time. The history backs that up too, Japan have beaten Brazil just once in 14 attempts, even if that solitary win did come in their most recent meeting last October. I think Brazil's firepower up top is just a level above what Japan can consistently keep out, but Japan have been the form team of the group stage in their own right and won't make it easy.
Brazil 2–1 Japan — Cunha, Vinícius Júnior — Ueda