South Africa
Canada
Round of 32 is finally here, and the bracket couldn't have served up a stranger pairing. South Africa finished second in Group A behind Mexico and arrived in the knockouts with the lowest expectations of anyone still standing, while Canada missed the chance to host their own last-32 tie on home soil after a final-day defeat to Switzerland. Neither nation has ever won a World Cup knockout match. One of them is about to.
South Africa — Bafana Bafana
Ronwen Williams starts in goal as captain, with a back four of Aubrey Modiba, Mbekezeli Mbokazi, Ime Okon and Khuliso Mudau unchanged from the win over South Korea. Teboho Mokoena returns from suspension to sit alongside Sphephelo Sithole in the middle, and the front line goes with Tshepang Moremi and Thapelo Maseko either side of Relebohile Mofokeng, with Evidence Makgopa leading the line again.
Part of me keeps going back and forth on whether Oswin Appollis starts ahead of Moremi, with Thalente Mbatha coming in next to Mokoena instead of Sithole. I can see either picture. Moremi only needed a minute on the pitch to set up the winner against South Korea, and that's the kind of impact that earns you a start, but Appollis has been the more consistent option across the group stage and Broos doesn't always reward one good cameo with a place in the XI. I've gone with the version above for now, mostly because Sithole did enough last time out to keep hold of his shirt and there's no obvious reason to break up a team that's just won. Themba Zwane stays suspended after his red card against Mexico, with South Africa's appeal against that decision turned down by FIFA.
Broos will be the oldest manager in history to take charge of a World Cup knockout match at 74, leading a side nobody gave much chance of even getting out of the group. Makgopa's recall up top paid off handily last time out, and Maseko's late winner against South Korea was the difference between an early flight home and a shot at history. South Africa have had 11 different scorers across their last 11 World Cup goals, so whoever gets on the scoresheet here would be in decent company.
Canada — Les Rouges
Maxime Crepeau is in goal behind a back four of Richie Laryea, Luc de Fougerolles, Derek Cornelius and Alistair Johnston. Ali Ahmed, Nathan Saliba, Stephen Eustaquio and Tajon Buchanan make up the midfield four, with Cyle Larin and Jonathan David paired up top.
That's the version I'd expect, give or take which side a couple of full-backs line up. Alphonso Davies is back in full training but isn't expected to start, with his fitness still a question after such a long spell out. Moise Bombito only managed 45 minutes last time out, and the back line has played well enough without him that he probably isn't forcing his way straight back in. Ismael Kone is out of the tournament entirely after fracturing his tibia and fibula, having had surgery the same day as Canada's win over Qatar.
This is knockout football for a Canada side that rotated where it could afford to and is settling into a first-choice XI now the stakes are real. David and Larin have started finding the net more regularly as the tournament's gone on, and Eustaquio's return to full fitness gives Jesse Marsch his first-choice midfield anchor back in place. The defence is the part worth watching. Canada's individual errors crept in under pressure against Switzerland, and South Africa's pace on the counter is built exactly to punish that kind of mistake.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Teboho Mokoena vs Stephen Eustaquio. Whoever wins this midfield battle probably decides who controls the tempo of the whole game. Mokoena gives South Africa control and physicality fresh off his game out, while Eustaquio is the one pulling the strings for Canada just behind David and Larin. If either gets shut out of the game, his side is in real trouble.
Prediction
Canada go into this as favourites, and the Opta supercomputer agrees, giving them a 55% chance of winning in normal time against South Africa's 20%, with the draw making up the rest. It isn't hard to see why. David and Larin are a sharper strike partnership than anything South Africa can offer, and Eustaquio gives Canada a level of control that Bafana Bafana's midfield will have to work hard to disrupt. But South Africa have already shown they're capable of grinding out results nobody expected, and Makgopa's movement in behind gives them a route to goal against a Canada back line that hasn't always looked entirely settled.
This should be tight, and a goal either way could open it right up.
South Africa 1–2 Canada — Makgopa — David, Larin
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