Netherlands
Morocco
Round of 32 · Tuesday 30 June, 03:00 BST · Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe
Arguably the toughest of the round so far on paper, two of the form teams of the group stage meeting at the earliest possible knockout hurdle. Win this and the Netherlands likely face whoever comes through South Africa vs Canada in the last 16. Morocco have already shown they can hang with the very best after their draw against Brazil, so there's no reason to think they can't do it again here.
Netherlands — Oranje
Bart Verbruggen should start in goal behind a back four of Micky van de Ven, Virgil van Dijk, Jan Paul van Hecke and Denzel Dumfries. Ryan Gravenberch and Frenkie de Jong look set to sit in midfield, with Cody Gakpo and Crysencio Summerville either side of Tijjani Reijnders behind Brian Brobbey up top.
Van de Ven should be back as expected now he's no longer one booking away from a suspension, and that looks like the only real change from the side that beat Tunisia. The call I was most curious about was the right wing, and Summerville looks set to get the nod over Donyell Malen, which feels right given he's already found the net this tournament and Malen hasn't really had the impact to force his way in ahead of him. Koeman's side have scored ten times in three games, equalling their best-ever return at this stage of a World Cup, so there's no reason to expect them to break up something that's clearly working.
Morocco — Atlas Lions
Yassine Bounou should start in goal behind a back four of Noussair Mazraoui, Chadi Riad, Issa Diop and Achraf Hakimi. Ayoub Bouaddi and Neil El Aynaoui look set to sit in the pivot, with Bilal El Khannouss and Azzedine Ounahi either side of Brahim Díaz behind Ismael Saibari up top.
No real changes expected here. There was a bit of rotation in the win over Haiti once qualification was already in the bag, but with a game of this size in front of them I'd be surprised to see Walid Regragui tinker with a side that's beaten Scotland and held Brazil to a draw. Hakimi at right-back is the headline name and rightly so, but I think Brahim Díaz tucking in off the front would be the more important detail tactically, since it gives Morocco a genuine creative outlet through the middle rather than just relying on width from Hakimi and Mazraoui.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Denzel Dumfries vs Noussair Mazraoui. Both full-backs love getting forward, which means whoever wins the battle for that flank could decide which side controls the tempo out wide. Dumfries against a back-tracking Mazraoui is exactly the kind of mismatch the Dutch will look to exploit early; Morocco will be hoping Mazraoui's defensive discipline holds up when Dumfries gets a head of steam.
Prediction
The Opta supercomputer gives the Netherlands a 47.6% chance of winning inside 90 minutes, with Morocco on 25% and a draw rated at 27.4%, the highest draw probability of any of the round of 32 ties so far. That tells you everything about how tight this is expected to be. The Dutch have the better recent knockout pedigree, but three of their last five ties have gone to penalties, so don't be surprised if this one needs extra time to settle it.
Netherlands 1–1 Morocco (Netherlands win on penalties) — Brobbey — Saibari