Cape Verde
Saudi Arabia
Houston Stadium hosts the other half of the Group H finale, and it carries just as much weight as the headline act in Guadalajara. Cape Verde, at their first-ever World Cup, sit third on two points and need just one more positive result to make history. Saudi Arabia are bottom on a single point and have to win simply to keep their own hopes alive.
Cape Verde — Blue Sharks
Sidny Cabral is suspended after picking up a second yellow card of the tournament against Uruguay, and the lineup pencilled in here has Joao Paulo deputising in the back four alongside Diney, Roberto "Pico" Lopes and Steven Moreira. Kevin Pina continues as the holding midfielder behind a four of Helio Varela, Jamiro Monteiro, Deroy Duarte and Ryan Mendes, with Dailon Livramento leading the line ahead of Gilson Benchimol, who'd been tipped by some reports to start instead. Telmo Arcanjo and Jovane Cabral remain doubts and aren't risked.
Cape Verde have lost just once in their last six matches across all competitions and would qualify outright with a five-goal win here if Spain draw with Uruguay elsewhere. Even a more modest victory should be enough to go through in some capacity, an extraordinary achievement for the smallest nation by population ever to reach a World Cup.
Saudi Arabia — Green Falcons
Georgios Donis has no fresh fitness concerns or suspensions to contend with, and the lineup pencilled in here is close to settled: Mohamed Al-Owais in goal, Moteb Al Harbi, Abdulelah Al Amri, Hassan Al-Tambakti and Saud Abdulhamid across the back, with Mohamed Kanno, Abdullah Al Khaibari and Nasser Al Dawsari in midfield. Salem Al Dawsari and Musab Al Juwayr support Firas Al-Buraikan, who has 16 international goals and continues through the middle.
Saudi Arabia have a goal difference of minus four and need to win this by some margin to have any real chance of sneaking through as one of the best third-placed sides. Four points from three games would normally be enough at a World Cup, but their position right now leaves no margin for anything less than victory.
Predicted Lineups
Group H Permutations
Cape Verde qualify in 66.9% of Opta's simulations, the second-best odds in the group behind Spain, and could even finish top with an emphatic enough win if Spain only draw. A more routine victory should still be enough to go through as runners-up or one of the best third-placed teams. Saudi Arabia's path is narrower: a win keeps them in the picture at 33.3% overall, but anything less and they're relying on Uruguay losing to Spain as well.
Key Battle
Firas Al-Buraikan vs Cape Verde's makeshift back line. With Cabral suspended, Cape Verde's defence has had to reshuffle at the worst possible time. If Al-Buraikan and Salem Al Dawsari can exploit any unfamiliarity early, Saudi Arabia's must-win task becomes a lot more manageable.
Prediction
Cape Verde's story has been built on defensive resilience and big moments from unlikely sources, and there's no reason to think that changes here. Saudi Arabia need a result far more than they've shown they're capable of producing one, and this should be the night the fairytale takes another step forward.
Cape Verde 2–1 Saudi Arabia — Livramento, Mendes — Al-Buraikan
⚽ Don't forget to submit your prediction at bantamtalk.com/predictionleague before kickoff!