Egypt
Iran
Lumen Field in Seattle hosts the Group G summit meeting, with Egypt top on four points and Iran level on points but behind on the head-to-head reckoning. A draw is enough for Egypt to confirm their place in the last 32 outright, their first knockout appearance since 1990, while Iran know that a draw alone might not be enough if Belgium beat New Zealand in the simultaneous fixture.
Egypt — The Pharaohs
Hossam Hassan is unlikely to change much after a result-turning win over New Zealand, and the lineup pencilled in here keeps Mostafa Shobeir in goal behind Mohamed Hany, Hamdy Fathy, Yasser Ibrahim and Ahmed Fatouh. Fathy was forced off before half-time against New Zealand with a suspected hamstring issue, and Ramy Rabia would be the man to come in alongside Ibrahim if he isn't fit to recover in time. Marwan Attia and Mohannad Lasheen sit in front of the back four, with Mostafa Ziko, Emam Ashour and Mohamed Salah supporting Omar Marmoush.
Salah has contributed a goal and two assists across his first two appearances and remains the player Egypt's hopes run through. Egypt haven't progressed beyond the group stage since 1990, and a draw alone would be enough to end that wait, though Hassan's side will be targeting the win that guarantees top spot outright.
Iran — Team Melli
Amir Ghalenoei has few injury concerns beyond Roozbeh Cheshmi, who's missed both games so far with a hamstring issue and is unlikely to be risked here either. The lineup pencilled in keeps Saman Ghoddos screening alongside Saeid Ezatolahi, and Saleh Hardani retained out wide, even with Alireza Jahanbakhsh pushing for a recall after impressing when introduced against Belgium. Mehdi Taremi continues just behind Shahriar Moghanlou up top, with Mohammad Mohebi on the opposite flank and Ramin Rezaeian, Shoja Khalilzadeh, Ali Nemati and Hossein Kanaani across the back in front of Alireza Beiranvand.
Iran have produced two of the better defensive performances at this tournament, including a goalless draw against a Belgium side reduced to ten men, and are unbeaten in five across all competitions. A draw here may still not be enough for them if Belgium beat New Zealand by enough elsewhere, so Ghalenoei's side will know a win changes everything in their favour.
Predicted Lineups
Group G Permutations
Egypt qualify as winners with a win, or with a draw provided Belgium don't beat New Zealand by three or more goals; a draw alone secures at least second. Iran finish top if they win and Belgium fail to beat New Zealand, and could still finish second from a draw depending on goals scored across the group. Belgium, the lowest-rated side in the group by the Opta supercomputer's own admission of how underwhelming they've been, win in 76.2% of simulations against New Zealand but only top the group in 26.6% of them. New Zealand go through as runners-up if they beat Belgium and Iran fail to beat Egypt.
Key Battle
Mohamed Salah vs Iran's well-drilled back line. Iran have conceded just twice all tournament, and Salah will be the one tasked with finding the gap that's eluded most other attackers so far. If he can combine with Marmoush and Ashour the way he did against New Zealand, Egypt's path to top spot gets a lot more straightforward.
Prediction
Iran's defensive solidity makes them a genuinely difficult side to break down, and a repeat of their performance against Belgium wouldn't surprise anyone. But Egypt have the momentum and the individual quality in Salah to find a way through, and home support in all but name should carry them to the win that confirms top spot.
Egypt 2–1 Iran — Salah, Marmoush — Taremi
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