Uruguay
Spain
Estadio Guadalajara hosts a genuine do-or-die Group H finale, with Spain already through but needing a result to guarantee top spot, and Uruguay facing elimination with anything less than a win. Spain have won five and drawn five of their last ten meetings with Uruguay, including draws at the 1950 and 1990 World Cups, and haven't actually played them since a 2-1 Confederations Cup defeat back in 2013.
Uruguay — La Celeste
Marcelo Bielsa is already without Ronald Araujo and Giorgian De Arrascaeta, both ruled out with calf issues, and the lineup pencilled in here goes with Darwin Nunez through the middle, a switch from Federico Vinas who started the previous two games. Rodrigo Bentancur sits as the lone holding midfielder shielding the back four, with Manuel Ugarte, Federico Valverde, Maximiliano Araujo and Agustin Canobbio the more advanced four in front of him, the latter pair providing the width either side of Nunez after standout displays against Cape Verde.
Guillermo Varela didn't train the day before this one but is nonetheless pencilled in to continue at right-back alongside Jose Maria Gimenez, Sebastian Caceres and Mathias Olivera. Uruguay have lost three straight to Spain and need to buck that trend just to stay alive, having been eliminated in the group stage of the 2022 tournament after reaching as low as fourth in 2010.
Spain — La Roja
The version of Spain that demolished Saudi Arabia 4-0 is the one Luis de la Fuente wants again here, and the lineup pencilled in keeps faith with almost everyone involved in that win. Marcos Llorente continues at right-back ahead of Pedro Porro, and Dani Olmo is again preferred to Fabian Ruiz for the contested midfield spot alongside Pedri and Rodri. Alex Baena, who moved well in the second half against Saudi Arabia, keeps his place out wide ahead of Nico Williams, who's made two substitute appearances so far and is pushing for a recall of his own.
Lamine Yamal continues to build minutes on the other flank, with Mikel Oyarzabal, scorer of a brace last time out, the undisputed number nine. Victor Munoz remains a fitness doubt, but Spain's back four of Marc Cucurella, Aymeric Laporte, Pau Cubarsi and Llorente otherwise picks itself.
Predicted Lineups
Group H Permutations
Spain's progression is already confirmed, and Opta's supercomputer gives them an 85% chance of topping the group, rising to certainty with a win and surviving even a draw unless Cape Verde thrash Saudi Arabia by five or more elsewhere. Uruguay go through as winners with victory here, provided Cape Verde don't overhaul them on goal difference, and progress in 39.2% of simulations overall. A draw leaves them needing the Cape Verde game to stay tight; a defeat is almost certain elimination. Cape Verde are alive in 66.9% of simulations and could even leapfrog Spain with an emphatic enough win elsewhere, while Saudi Arabia sit at 33.3%, needing to win and hope Uruguay don't beat Spain.
Key Battle
Lamine Yamal vs Uruguay's back line. Yamal's growing influence has coincided directly with Spain finding their attacking edge again. If Uruguay's full-backs are dragged toward him, the space it opens for Oyarzabal and Olmo centrally could be exactly what settles this.
Prediction
Uruguay are capable of making this awkward, and the stakes alone should sharpen them up after two underwhelming draws. But Spain's attacking form since the Cape Verde game has been a different level entirely, and that should be enough to see them confirm top spot.
Uruguay 1–2 Spain — Nunez — Oyarzabal, Yamal
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