Senegal
Iraq
BMO Field in Toronto hosts a Group I dead-rubber-that-isn't on Friday, with both Senegal and Iraq already out of the running for anything better than third. Senegal currently sit bottom of all 12 third-placed teams after back-to-back defeats to France and Norway, and need a big win here just to give themselves a sliver of a chance of sneaking through.
Senegal — Lions of Teranga
Pape Thiaw's side have been undone by self-inflicted errors more than a lack of quality, and Kalidou Koulibaly bore the brunt of that against Norway before being withdrawn in the 72nd minute. The lineup pencilled in here keeps faith with the experienced centre-back regardless, alongside Moussa Niakhate, rather than turning to Mamadou Sarr or Abdoulaye Seck. Mory Diaw continues in goal with Edouard Mendy ruled out through a knee injury picked up against Norway, and Lamine Camara keeps his place just ahead of the Gueye pair, Idrissa Gana Gueye and Pape Gueye, who continue to screen the back four.
Up front, Sadio Mane, Ismaila Sarr and Nicolas Jackson continue as the front three that's shown more promise than the results suggest, with Sarr in particular building on a strong display against Norway after a quiet opener. Senegal haven't kept a World Cup clean sheet since their 2002 debut against France, so don't expect this one to be settled by a single goal either way.
Iraq — Lions of Mesopotamia
Iraq's progression is essentially out of their hands given a minus-six goal difference, but Graham Arnold will still want a response after conceding seven across two defeats. Aymen Hussein's involvement is genuinely in doubt after he went off before the half-hour mark against Norway, and the lineup pencilled in here goes with Ahmed Qasem partnering him regardless, rather than handing a first World Cup start to Mohanad Ali, who has 27 international goals of his own. Ahmed Basil continues in goal ahead of Jalal Hassan, and Amir Al-Ammari remains the key creative outlet given he takes every set piece.
Iraq's last win in any competition was a friendly over Andorra back in May, and they've now lost four straight at this tournament and in the warm-up games either side of it. A first World Cup appearance since 1986 looks set to end without a point.
Predicted Lineups
Group I Permutations
Both France and Norway are already through, playing each other simultaneously elsewhere. The best Senegal or Iraq can hope for is third place, and a draw here helps neither. Senegal's 91.3% chance of finishing third was enough to reach the last 32 in 69.5% of Opta's simulations, but that's contingent on the result here being a positive one. Iraq's heavily negative goal difference makes a third-placed finish, let alone qualification, a long shot even with a win.
Key Battle
Sadio Mane and Ismaila Sarr vs Iraq's makeshift back line. With Hussein's fitness in doubt and Iraq already shipping seven goals in two games, Senegal's front three should fancy their chances of the big win they need. The concern is whether their own defence, leaky all tournament, can keep Iraq's threat in behind at arm's length.
Prediction
Senegal have the better individual quality and the greater incentive, even if their own defensive frailties make a comfortable afternoon unlikely. Iraq have shown little to suggest a response is coming.
Senegal 3–1 Iraq — Mane, Sarr, Jackson — Qasem
⚽ Don't forget to submit your prediction at bantamtalk.com/predictionleague before kickoff!