Norway
France
Gillette Stadium in Foxborough hosts the Group I decider on Friday evening, though both sides are through regardless. France top the group on goal difference after two wins, Norway have matched them point for point, and only a Norwegian win actually changes who finishes where. Norway's last win over France came back in 2010, and a repeat would be only their fourth in history.
Norway — The Vikings
Stale Solbakken has already said there'll be changes here to keep his squad fresh for the knockouts, and the lineup pencilled in keeps that promise: Andreas Schjelderup, Leo Ostigard, Patrick Berg and Oscar Bobb all come into a side built around rest rather than risk, with Marcus Pedersen deputising for Julian Ryerson, who limped off after just 13 minutes against Senegal and is considered highly unlikely to feature. Most strikingly, Jorgen Strand Larsen leads the line in place of Erling Haaland, who's already on four goals and the joint second-highest scorer at this World Cup but is being given a breather with qualification long since secured.
Kristoffer Ajer and Fredrik Aursnes are the more familiar names retained in an otherwise freshened-up XI, with David Moller Wolfe continuing on the left. Norway are already through regardless of the result, playing in their first tournament finals in 28 years, so there's little incentive for Solbakken to risk anyone carrying knocks.
France — Les Bleus
This is a personal one for Didier Deschamps, who has temporarily returned home following the loss of his mother and will be commended by his squad for leading them regardless. With qualification as group winners already secure, the lineup pencilled in here features real rotation: Maxence Lacroix comes in alongside Dayot Upamecano for the rested William Saliba, Malo Gusto continues at right-back ahead of Jules Kounde, and Lucas Hernandez keeps his place on the left. Manu Kone, who impressed off the bench against Iraq, continues in midfield in place of the rested Adrien Rabiot, with Aurelien Tchouameni back from the pubic pain that had sidelined him and continuing alongside him. Lucas Digne also caught the eye when introduced against Iraq and had been tipped by some reports to displace Hernandez at left-back, though that change hasn't materialised here.
Up front, Desire Doue, Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembele support Kylian Mbappe, who continues to chase down Messi's all-time World Cup scoring record after four goals in his first two appearances.
Predicted Lineups
Group I Permutations
Both sides are already through. France top the group with anything but defeat, and Opta's supercomputer gives them a 77.8% chance of finishing first. Norway need an outright win to leapfrog them, which the same model gives a 22.2% likelihood. Senegal have a 91.3% chance of finishing third regardless of this result, which was enough to reach the last 32 in 69.5% of simulations. Iraq's qualification, even in third, remains a long shot given their goal difference.
Key Battle
Jorgen Strand Larsen vs France's rotated back line. With Haaland rested, the goalscoring burden falls on Strand Larsen against a defence missing Saliba and Kounde. It's a tougher ask without Norway's main man, but France's reshuffled back four has less of a settled look than the one that's shut out Senegal and Iraq.
Prediction
With both sides resting key men, this has the feel of a low-key affair compared to what the table positions might suggest. Norway's deputies have shown they can score, and France's reshuffled defence isn't its first-choice unit, but France's overall quality should still be enough to avoid the defeat that would cost them top spot.
Norway 1–2 France — Strand Larsen — Mbappe, Doue
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