Paraguay
Australia
San Francisco Bay Area Stadium hosts the decisive Group D fixture on Friday, with both Paraguay and Australia already guaranteed a top-three finish after Turkey's elimination, though neither can catch the USA at the top. Because head-to-head is the first tiebreaker, Paraguay have to win outright. A draw would send Australia through instead, courtesy of a healthier goal difference.
Paraguay — La Albirroja
A battling 1-0 win over Turkey, secured despite Miguel Almiron's first-half red card, has Paraguay needing a repeat performance here. Almiron, the squad's top scorer with ten goals, is suspended, and the lineup pencilled in here has Gustavo Velazquez shifted into a more advanced role to compensate, alongside Julio Enciso in attack. Diego Gomez was withdrawn against Turkey with discomfort but has reportedly recovered in time to continue in midfield alongside Andres Cubas and Matias Galarza, scorer of a wonder strike in that win.
Paraguay have avoided defeat in their final group match at each of their last six World Cups, for whatever that's worth against the requirement to win outright here. Ten of their last twelve victories have come by a single goal, so even a positive result is unlikely to be comfortable.
Australia — The Socceroos
Tony Popovic's side followed up their opening win over Turkey with a 2-0 defeat to the USA, a result built on two unfortunate own goals rather than a footballing lesson. Mathew Leckie picked up a muscle injury in that game and isn't risked here, with Cristian Volpato coming in instead alongside Nestory Irankunda and Mohamed Toure in attack. Aiden O'Neill and Paul Okon-Engstler continue in midfield, while the back three of Alessandro Circati, Harry Souttar and Cameron Burgess stays settled, with Jordan Bos and Jacob Italiano as the wing-backs.
Australia don't even need a win, just any point at all, to qualify for the knockouts for a second straight tournament. They've never lost to Paraguay in five previous meetings, their most recent a 1-0 win back in October 2010, and Popovic's side go in as favourites against a nation ranked 41st in the world to their 27th.
Predicted Lineups
Group D Permutations
USA have already won the group. Turkey are already eliminated. Australia qualify as runners-up with at least a draw here, Opta's supercomputer giving them a 62% chance of progressing overall thanks to their goal difference advantage. Paraguay must win to go through automatically, a 38% likelihood per the same model, with anything less almost certainly ending their tournament.
Key Battle
Julio Enciso vs Australia's back three. With Almiron suspended, the creative burden falls heavily on Enciso to unlock a well-organised Australian defence that's barely been broken down all tournament. If he can't find a way through, Paraguay's path to the win they need looks bleak.
Prediction
Paraguay's need for an outright win works against them here, since Australia only have to avoid defeat and can afford to play it safe. Australia's greater attacking depth and the calmer permutations in their favour should be enough to see them through, even without their best XI on the pitch.
Paraguay 0–1 Australia — Irankunda
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