Ecuador
Germany
Germany arrive at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on Thursday already through as group winners, while Ecuador's World Cup is hanging by a thread after one point from two games. Die Mannschaft are the tournament's top scorers with nine goals and unbeaten in 11 across all competitions, a run that would equal their longest-ever winning streak if extended here.
Ecuador — La Tri
It's been a story of bad luck and worse finishing for Sebastian Beccacece's side. They hit the woodwork three times before conceding a 90th-minute winner against Ivory Coast, then failed to convert a single one of 27 shots against Curaçao, 15 of which were saved by Eloy Room alone. The lineup pencilled in here pushes Alan Franco, who played centre-back against Curaçao, back into his more familiar central midfield role alongside Moises Caicedo and Pedro Vite, with Jordy Alcivar dropping out as a result. Enner Valencia, just one goal away from 50 for his country, continues to lead the line, with Gonzalo Plata preferred to Jordy Caicedo in support.
Ecuador have drawn nine separate matches 0-0 since July 2024, and a similar story here would leave them needing a result elsewhere that's unlikely to come. No fitness concerns to speak of, just a results problem that's proven stubbornly hard to fix.
Germany — Die Mannschaft
Deniz Undav's substitute heroics against Ivory Coast, two goals including a 94th-minute winner, equalled Roger Milla's record for goal involvements by a substitute at a single World Cup. With qualification long since sealed, Julian Nagelsmann is widely expected to rotate heavily, and the lineup here reflects that: Oliver Baumann in for the long-serving Manuel Neuer, David Raum at left-back ahead of Nathaniel Brown, and Antonio Rudiger coming in alongside Jonathan Tah following Nico Schlotterbeck's injury, which has now been confirmed as ankle ligament damage that ends his tournament. Joshua Kimmich retains the captaincy and his spot in the side regardless of any wider changes.
Undav's form has earned him a recall from the start rather than just off the bench, lining up just behind Kai Havertz alongside Florian Wirtz, with Felix Nmecha still preferred to a rest in central midfield despite plenty of reports suggesting he'd be given the week off. Germany have conceded in five of their last six matches and haven't kept a World Cup clean sheet since the 2014 final, so a tidy defensive display matters more to Nagelsmann than the scoreline itself here.
Predicted Lineups
Group E Permutations
Germany have already secured top spot, win, lose or draw here. For Ecuador to go through, they need to beat Germany and hope Curaçao beat Ivory Coast elsewhere, a combination Opta's supercomputer gives just a 27.3% chance of happening. Ivory Coast qualify as runners-up with anything but a defeat against Curaçao (92.2% to progress overall), while Curaçao are most likely to finish bottom of the group regardless of what happens here.
Key Battle
Enner Valencia vs Germany's rotated back line. With Schlotterbeck out and several changes elsewhere, Germany's defence here is less settled than the one that's started every game so far. If Valencia and Plata can find space early, Ecuador have a route back into a tournament that currently looks all but over.
Prediction
Ecuador's defensive solidity has been the one constant all tournament, but their inability to score even against weaker sides doesn't bode well against a Germany attack now finding its rhythm through Undav. Even a heavily rotated German side should carry enough quality to get the job done.
Ecuador 0–2 Germany — Undav, Havertz
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