Curaçao
Ivory Coast
Group E wraps up at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia on Thursday, with Ivory Coast needing only to avoid defeat to confirm second spot. Curaçao, the smallest nation by population ever to reach a World Cup, are still dreaming of becoming the lowest-ranked side in history to make the last 32, but realistically need a win here and a favour from Ecuador against Germany to have any chance.
Curaçao — The Blue Wave
A heavy 7-1 opening day defeat to Germany has been followed by real defiance. Eloy Room made 15 saves in the goalless draw with Ecuador, the joint-most in a single World Cup match since records began in 1966, matching the mark Tim Howard set for the USA against Belgium in 2014. Dick Advocaat switched to a back five for that game and got far more solidity out of it while still threatening on the counter, and the lineup here keeps that shape: Armando Obispo flanked by Jurrien Gaari and Sherel Floranus in a back three, with Joshua Brenet and Deveron Fonville as wing-backs either side of Livano Comenencia and the Bacuna brothers, Juninho and Leandro, in midfield.
Jurgen Locadia took a knock late on against Ecuador but is expected to be fit enough to lead the line again, with Gervane Kastaneer the option in reserve if not. Curaçao have never faced an African nation before, and with everything still technically alive in this group, there's no reason for Advocaat to risk any random rotation here.
Ivory Coast — The Elephants
Emerse Fae's side were excellent for long spells against Germany before Deniz Undav's double off the bench, including a 94th-minute winner, turned a deserved lead into a painful defeat. The lineup here makes one change at the back, with Guela Doue coming in at right-back for Wilfried Singo, who picked up a hamstring problem against Germany. Reassuring results from his medical examinations this week suggest it isn't serious, but he isn't risked regardless. Evan Ndicka has resumed full training after his own thigh injury and is an option, though Emmanuel Agbadou and Odilon Kossounou continue as the centre-back pairing that's started every game so far.
Up front, Amad Diallo and Yan Diomande continue to support Elye Wahi, who's started ahead of Inter Milan's Ange-Yoan Bonny in every match this tournament. Ivory Coast have scored in 91% of their World Cup fixtures, the highest rate of any nation to have played at least three matches in the competition's history, and a place in the knockouts beckons with a similar showing here.
Predicted Lineups
Group E Permutations
Germany have already topped the group regardless of this result. Ivory Coast qualify as runners-up with a win or a draw here, and Opta's supercomputer gives them an 82.7% chance of finishing second and a 92.2% chance of going through overall. Ecuador's hopes hang by a thread: they need to beat Germany and hope Curaçao beat Ivory Coast, which gives them a 27.3% chance of progressing. Curaçao need a win here and results to swing elsewhere even to have a sniff, and the supercomputer has them finishing bottom of the group in 71.6% of simulations.
Key Battle
Amad Diallo vs Curaçao's back three. Diallo and Diomande's pace in behind is exactly the kind of threat a back three can be vulnerable to if the wing-backs are dragged out wide. Room was the hero against Ecuador, but he can only do so much if Ivory Coast's front line gets in behind regularly.
Prediction
Room's heroics against Ecuador prove Curaçao can frustrate a side for long periods, and there's a romantic story still to be written here. But Ivory Coast's attacking quality, and the fact they have far more to lose, should see them get the job done.
Curaçao 0–2 Ivory Coast — Diallo, Wahi
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