Japan
Sweden
Japan and Sweden meet at AT&T Stadium in Arlington on Friday with both sides jostling for a top-two finish in Group F, level on four points but trailing the Netherlands on goal difference. A draw is likely enough for both to go through, but there's a real prize on offer too: Japan finish top if they better the Dutch result, and a first-ever unbeaten World Cup group campaign outside their co-hosting year of 2002 is there to be won.
Japan — Samurai Blue
Hajime Moriyasu's side finally got their first win of the tournament against a Tunisia side already in crisis, becoming the first Asian nation to score four in a single World Cup match. Daichi Kamada opened the scoring inside four minutes, the earliest goal in Japan's World Cup history, and has now scored twice in this tournament after managing just one goal in 46 appearances for Crystal Palace last season. Ayase Ueda added a brace and an assist of his own.
Captain Wataru Endo remains out, and the lineup pencilled in here goes with a back three of Hiroki Ito, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Ko Itakura rather than the Ito-Watanabe-Taniguchi trio some reports expected, with Kaishu Sano and Kamada forming a double pivot in front of them. Junya Ito and Daizen Maeda support Ueda from the two 10 positions either side, with Keito Nakamura and Ritsu Doan providing the width. Takefusa Kubo remains out with a knee injury, and Bundesliga forward Shuto Machino is still without a World Cup minute through illness, so don't expect changes up top beyond what's already settled.
Sweden — Blagult
A 5-1 win over Tunisia on matchday one gave way to a chastening 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands, Sweden's heaviest World Cup loss by three or more goals since the 1958 final, also overseen by an English manager. Graham Potter has been candid that heavy defeats happen against the tournament's best, and his side go again here knowing a point is very likely enough for the knockouts. Isak Hien and Victor Lindelof keep their place at centre-back despite that defeat, with Lucas Bergvall retained in the number 10 role and Yasin Ayari continuing to feature ahead of Celtic's Benjamin Nygren.
Anthony Elanga impressed off the bench against the Dutch, scoring in the second half, but the lineup here keeps the same front two of Viktor Gyokeres and Alexander Isak, one of the more dangerous strike partnerships at this tournament, rather than working Elanga into a front three. Sweden have waited five years for a game against Asian opposition, last beating Uzbekistan in a 2021 friendly.
Predicted Lineups
Group F Permutations
Bottom spot already belongs to Tunisia. The Netherlands secure top spot with a win over Tunisia, and even a draw guarantees qualification. Japan finish top if they beat Sweden and the Dutch fail to beat Tunisia, or if both Japan and the Netherlands win but Japan score more goals doing it; a Japan draw paired with a Dutch loss would also be enough. Sweden can still finish top themselves if they beat Japan and the Netherlands fail to beat Tunisia, and qualify as runners-up if they win and the Dutch also win.
Key Battle
Ayase Ueda vs Sweden's centre-backs. Ueda's movement caused Tunisia all sorts of problems, and Hien and Lindelof will have taken note after a rough afternoon against the Netherlands. If Japan's front line can get in behind early, Sweden's defensive confidence could take another hit at exactly the wrong moment.
Prediction
Japan have conquered Germany and Spain at past World Cups and arrive full of confidence after their record-breaking win. Sweden need to show they can bounce back from a heavy defeat, and the firepower of Isak and Gyokeres means they're never out of a game, but Japan should have just enough to edge this one.
Japan 2–1 Sweden — Ueda, Kamada — Isak
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