Most liked posts in thread: Where will it end... 12th September as it happens

Because the focus is framed in that way. Whether a country does good/bad is being viewed in a very binary death/infection count. It's hard enough to get people to see the nuance in population, population density, transport links, etc, let alone things that can actually be controlled. At the end of it countries are going to be measured on the death or infection numbers not about how loud they were able to sing at football games.

It's okay saying the vulnerable can opt out but that only affects the direct infections to vulnerable people. Not the number of people walking around with the virus and therefore the indirect effects or even deaths.

It's not safe to work or study. I think we all actually know this. There has to be some element of balance rather than saying we're just going to open everything back up because there is an element of danger in some aspects of our lives.

 

I keep saying to you. keep a lid on the infections and I suppose therefore to minimise the deaths as far as possible.

 

If the virus stops killing people then I agree. Who cares. I don't think there's any suggestion is has done though.

 

When the headline in a paper is this:

Is Nicola running Britain?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8626527/Eurotunnel-warns-trains-fully-booked-scramble-home-France-begins.html

Then you know your PM is truly awful!! Shocking PM!!!

Letting the Scottish run the country? What is happening here! Boris sort yourself out man!

 

Ah, but i'm not saying open everything up, I'm saying open up what's safe, first.

Outdoor, open-air arenas where people are NOT face-to-face by the very way a stadium is calibrated is the safest environment, particularly if every single person in that arena has tested negative for the virus.

Don't open theatres, don't open cinemas, don't open indoors entertainment, you don't need to open everything just to open outdoor arenas.

 

I think you might be overstating the safety of prolonged close proximity in open air and also the ease of getting people in/out. However I'm sure when they're a bit more sure about the effects and capabilities it will occur but I would think it would be a slow and gradual process.

You only have to look at the criticism of Cheltenham and the Liverpool game to see that people aren't going to take that on board if the infections start to spike around a sports event.

 

I think the hotter weather has something to do with it. Peoples immune systems are generally stronger at this time of year. The worry is when flu season comes back around if COvid 19 is still out there in the community which currently it looks as though it will be. At that point our NHS would fall over as it was quite close to doing in March this year. We literally had to shut everything off to ensure it survived.

 

I said it in a previous post and will reiterate it again, that is exactly what they want. A police state/National identity card brought in through the back door with little or no opposition.

 

Think it is and then to start charging the over weight people and old people..

A cost card.

 

The end might be closer than we think.

Has anybody actually died from the Leicester outbreak if only 7 (0.5%) were hospitalised and there have been no recent deaths? Flu has a higher hospitalisation rate at around 2%.

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53772459

"The number of people admitted to hospital for the first time with Covid-19 did increase in Leicester in June, but the rise was much smaller than the rise in confirmed cases.

In July, Leicester saw 1,336 cases but only seven people were admitted to hospital with Covid-19."


Last death in Leicester hospitals was July 27th.

Https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/no-coronavirus-related-deaths-reported-4421239

 

This is probably the best news in a while to be honest. Need to figure out if there any reason why but its definitely a positive!

 

The problem with something like that is the Government has repeatedly proven it can not safely hold your information, no matter which party is in power.
I have a passport and a driving licence so I am not totally against it myself but some people clearly are and believe they shouldn't be enforced. That's why when it's reared its head a couple of times in recent years they haven't pushed it through.

 

In this day and age I'd be surprised if governments haven't all the information they require with regards an individual, certainly the younger end, you hear them talking and what they say when they post on facebook/twitter and the likes.
Even a straight forward questionnaire starts with simple questions with regards product and customer service etc and then go on to ask your age, your gross income, I only bought a flexi hosepipe ffs .

 

I thought I'd posted this here but could not see it when I looked back so I'll do it again.

Fig 24 on page 20. Emergency Department Covid attendances (as primary diagnosis) fell quite sharply in the week to 09/08/20. The daily 09/08/20 figure was only half a week earlier. That could be a blip but the 7 day average keeps going down, too. Ask yourself how new cases can be going up and up for the last 5 weeks and yet ED attendances can keep falling over that time. Also, page 21 shows hospital admissions down about 14% on the last week and Intensive Care admissions down 1/4. The virus is still making fewer and fewer people ill enough to go to hospital regardless of what media headlines say about new cases.

Https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909424/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_33_FINAL.pdf

Viruses tend to mutate weaker and this one has been mutating a little. More cases and less illness could be down to a weaker virus or down to more testing picking up previously missed cases rather than any real increase in prevalence. It could also be both.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6501/238?rss%3D1=

 

I'm sorry but that makes no sense as an explanation even if true. Hospital admissions have fallen from 1.2/100k per week 4 weeks ago to under 0.7/100k last week and Emergency Department attendances have about halved. Deaths are down about 3/4 in English hospitals in the last month from 20-25 to about 5. I don't think an increase in young people getting it in the last month or two since the measured positives started increasing leads to 50% fewer people needing hospital treatment and deaths falling by 3/4. Surely greatly reduced hospital activity is old people getting the virus less or the virus getting weaker, either of which is great news.

 

3 deaths in all settings on Friday under the 28-day cut-off. On the 4000 estimated new cases per day from the household infection survey, anything under about 15 and no restrictions are justified. Even though the 28-day cut-off is probably undercounting it a bit. It's starting to look like all restrictions should end. Latest numbers look no worse than flu and maybe even less. It could do with sustaining for a week or two first to see a steady number but this looks like it might be over very soon with a bit of luck.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

 

If I've made no mistake, Bradford's Pillar 1+2 new case numbers combined since available from 3rd of July is:
32,28,14,31,39,26,22,30,27,21,29,36,38,33,32,27,27,33,35,50,30,23,39,38,41,44,46,57,31

From August 1st
20,60,24,41,47,54.16,73,29, no data, 105(2 days), no data, 99 (2 days), 13

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/health/locations-134-new-cases-coronavirus-18775780

 

EU Covid deaths continued to fall in August - down about 20% - as new cases rose about 50%. (Fig.1). So, like the UK, increasing new cases are not being matched with increasing hospitalisations and deaths.

Individual country trends (page 26+) show the only EU countries with rising death trends were: Bulgaria, Croatia (peaking?), Czechia, Greece, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia. Data was not complete but, despite a 60%+ rise in new cases across the EU over the previous two week period, hospitalisations had only increased in Bulgaria, Croatia,Czechia, Luxembourg, Romania and Slovenia. There will be a delay as new cases progress to illness, severe illness and death, but it looks like strong rises in new cases are not translating into significant hospital activity as yet.


Https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/covid-19-rapid-risk-assessment-20200810.pdf

The above figures are a week or two out of date but the trend seems the same since. A couple of Eastern European countries have seen improving trends on infection and deaths, though Poland has got worse. Big "wave 1" countries have seen significant increases in cases but virtually no increases in deaths - UK, Italy, Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium. Although Spain has seen a slight rise in deaths, the rise of about 14 per day is pretty modest compared to the rise in new cases of 3000 per day since mid-June before it peaked a week ago.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The same picture seems to be occurring everywhere. Deaths don't seem to be following the increases in new cases, and hospital activity and deaths in most places are still flat or falling, as they are in the EU overall.

 

Think we just need to be careful about the lag between cases and deaths. If cases are still "high" in 6-8 weeks but the death or even hospitalization rate is unchanged then we can be a bit more positive and confident.

It's at least a start of potential good news but maybe a tad early to be absolutely sure yet.