The Voice - Match preview Swindon Town vs Bradford City Saturday 27th January 2024 3:00pm

EFL LEAGUE TWO FIXTURE #29

Saturday 27th January 2024 15:00
Swindon Town (17th) vs Bradford City (16th)
The County Ground

22/23 & 23/24 Results:

25 Oct 2022: Bradford City 1 – 1 Swindon Town
18 Apr 2023: Swindon Town 1 – 0 Bradford City
07 Oct 2023: Bradford City 1 – 0 Swindon Town

Head-to-Head Form: WLDLW (most recent result first)

Won: 14
Drawn: 14
Lost: 17

Current League Form:

Swindon Town: LDLWL
Bradford City: DDLLD

SWINDON TOWN

On the 1st October 2023, Swindon Town sat in 3rd place, a game in hand over the 2 teams ahead of them. Those sides, Notts County and Crawley Town, might have been early pace setters, but they were just 1 point ahead of Swindon Town at the time, meaning Swindon Town had the highest points-per-game average of any League Two side. Things were going remarkably well.

Swindon Town had won 4 of their opening 5 home games at the County Ground, drawing the other. Likewise, they remained unbeaten on the road. They also possessed 2 of the hottest players in the EFL according to the form book in Jake Young and Dan Kemp.

Fast forward to late January, and Swindon Town now sit 17th in the League Two table, have lost both Kemp and Young to recalls back to their parents’ clubs, and have now lost a full 12 league games – 6 defeats coming in their last 8 league games. Michael Flynn has paid the price for this severe decline with his job, and Gavin Gunning has taken over as interim boss.

While Gunning took the temporary reins on January 15, Swindon Town haven’t played a game since the 13th, with a home tie against Tranmere Rovers one of many that fell afoul of the weather. Their opponents, Bradford City, have seen action since then, an uninspiring 1-1 draw at home against Salford City playing out amid high winds that weren’t quite as severe as advertised.

That leads us to this Saturday afternoon, when 2 of the worst performing sides meet in an uninspiring encounter – at least on paper. But this is football, and every game counts: don’t expect either set of fans (or either manager) to permit their sides to go through the motions. The losing team, if there is to be a decisive outcome, will no doubt find themselves under immense pressure given both considered themselves promotion chasing sides at the outset of the campaign.

Swindon Town, for their part, cannot blame their drop off in form entirely on losing key loan players, whom are almost certain to wind up the club’s top scorers come the end of the season despite having so many games left to play. Their poor form began in early October, and Bradford City were one of the sides that played a vital role in halting the Robins’ momentum. A 1-0 defeat at Valley Parade remains 1 of only 4 home league wins claimed by the Bantams in a dismal campaign of their own and represented Swindon Town’s second defeat of the season. Since then, they have dropped off the proverbial cliff, with 13 defeats from 20 total games across both league and cup.

Still, Swindon Town will want to point to slightly improved form in the very short term. A victory over Forest Green Rovers and a draw against Colchester United may not be examples of a significant uptick in fortunes, but Swindon Town can at least boast 6 goals scored across their last 4 league games, with 4 points picked up in that period. While defeats on the road to Crawley Town and Crewe Alexandra pile on the misery for one of the division’s weakest travellers, the fact that the FGR and Colchester games came at the County Ground at least leave Swindon Town with a respectable home record overall.

A much better ‘home’ side than this weekend’s opponents Bradford City, Swindon Town will have to build on back-to-back games beaten on their own soil. Swindon have a host of new faces in their first team, as players come in to replace several who have seen their loan spells cut short, including goalkeeper Murphy Mahoney (QPR), Dan Kemp (MK Dons), Jake Young (Bradford City) and Benn Ward (Burnley), as well as Remeao Hutton (Gillingham), Lewis Ward (Charlton Athletic) and Liam Kinsella (Cheltenham Town), who have all left on permanent transfers.

In come goalkeeper Jack Bycroft (Southampton), Paul Glatzel (Liverpool), and Pharrell Johnson (Nottingham Forest) all on permanent transfers for undisclosed fees, while Dawson Devoy (MK Dons) and Conor McCarthy (Barnsley) come in on loan until the end of the season. Bycroft, Devoy and Glatzel all went straight into the starting line up in the 2-1 defeat against Crewe Alexandra, while Conor McCarthy and Pharrell Johnson both signed a couple of days later. Theoretically, all 5 will be in contention against Bradford City – and after suffering through their abysmal form these past 20+ games, I’m sure few Swindon Town fans will be complaining about having half a new side!

BRADFORD CITY

Graham Alexander might be relieved this game is away from home, having presided over a string of 4 home games without a win. 3 of those results may have been draws, including a creditable 0-0 against promotion favourites Stockport County, but he will have been left in no doubt about the fans’ impressions of a lacklustre 1-1 draw at home to off-form strugglers Salford City on Tuesday evening.

That said, Bradford City haven’t won either of their last 2 away games, either, against Crewe Alexandra and another struggling side in Colchester United. Maybe the road isn’t such a safe haven for Graham Alexander and assistant Chris Lucketti after all…

Draws are now the most frequent result for City as per the form table, with 4 stalemates and 2 defeats from their last 6 league games. A 1-0 win over Derby County in the EFL Trophy has allowed hopes of success in the EFL Trophy to persist, but it is the league games that most fans attend, and success in the table is the thing they desire most.

For his part, Graham Alexander refuses to write off the season, insisting he has the quality at his disposal to make a charge up the table. That charge might have to start pretty soon, though, if City are to mount any kind of serious assault on the play off positions. As it stands, totals of 9 wins, 9 draws and 10 defeats coupled with City’s form don’t imply that is even likely to happen either now, or in the future.

Frustration, then, for a manager that came in and got a ‘new manager’ bounce that extended to 6 straight victories in both league and cup. A 5-3-2 formation served Graham Alexander well, but the loss of key players like Jamie Walker, coupled with the absence of his back up Alex Pattison, as well as the blow of losing left wing back Lewis Richards has left Graham with some gaps he seems unable to fill. Clark Oduor doesn’t look good enough in an attacking midfield role, while Liam Ridehalgh and Sam Stubbs showed their frustrations on Tuesday night with a full blown argument early in the first half. Brad Halliday, one of the few shining lights in the City side, scored a second goal in 6 games as he continues to surprise in a more attacking role, but there’s no doubt creativity has become a serious problem for Bradford City of late.

A side that feel like they’re plodding along at only a moderate pace, this City side has failed to inspire since embarking on a free-scoring run from late November to just before Christmas, a period that now looks anomalous in it’s own right. The club are back to scoring a goal a game, on average, based on their last 7 games across both league and cup, a situation that ultimately cost Mark Hughes his job.

In fact, only stylistic tweaks from Alexander can really separate out the current form from that unacceptable early season form from Hughes – and that is not a good look, especially during a transfer window that has in itself increased frustrations among the City faithful. Jake Young is yet to either play or move on in a situation that is fast becoming farcical, while neither Tyreik Wright or Sam Walker have had any real immediate impact.

It's early days, though, especially for Wright who got 65 minutes under his belt on Tuesday night, that included a gilt-edged chance to put City ahead early in the second half – only for the Plymouth winger to drag his shot wide. He will likely be back in the starting line up at Swindon Town, a team 1 place and 2 points behind City and enduring an even worse (and longer) run of results.

 

THE BREAKDOWN

11/5: Swindon Town
11/4: Draw
21/20: Bradford City

A football game will play out on Saturday between 2 League Two sides on very poor form. Both are trying to salvage the season, though Swindon Town have been forced to be a little more proactive in the transfer window after falling victim of their over-reliance on loan players. They could play up to 5 new faces against Bradford City, including 3 signed for fees from Premier League and Championship sides. That said, 22 year old goalkeeper Jack Bycroft comes in from Southampton with only non-league loan experience under his belt, meanwhile 22 year old striker Paul Glatzel comes in with a decidedly mediocre record that has twice seen him loaned to Tranmere Rovers, where he notched just 4 goals from 17 total appearances. Neither, at least on paper, inspire dreams of an immediate turn-around.

Bradford City, for their part, are focussed on trimming the fat. Goalkeeper Harry Lewis was the big name departure to Carlisle United in the division above, while Emmanuel Osadebe and Vadaine Oliver leave for pastures new having nary left a mark on the memories of the Valley Parade faithful. In comes goalkeeper Sam Walker and winger Tyreik Wright, a player signed despite the fact Bradford City aren’t currently playing wingers. His return debut up front for City wasn’t particularly inspiring either, though he remains a known quantity who impressed plenty last time he was here.

Other players may well leave Valley Parade this Winter, but how many are replaced is probably the relevant question. Certainly, the plan is that not all will be replaced, but that in itself suggests there will be only very limited squad strengthening: not a happy sentiment for Bradford City fans who are now, in some cases, resigning themselves to a dour run in.

Graham Alexander, then, will have to lift everyone: his players, the fans, and everyone connected with the club – and it has to do it fast!

A win over Swindon Town would be a relief. Bradford City haven’t performed well against struggling sides lately, and few have been struggling as badly as Swindon Town. Swindon Town have a new manager taking the reins for the very first time, and they have an influx of new faces. It’s hard to know, then, what awaits Graham Alexander and his men.

In similar (but not identical) circumstances, Colchester United denied Bradford City a win under their new manager Danny Cowley – will the same happen in Wiltshire this weekend?

It’s very hard to anticipate a thriller, but with both sides off form, who knows? Mistakes might be the order of the day, and we might get treated to an action-packed encounter that completely belies the current form table (and the league table, for that matter). But I’m not banking on it. The pick is a 1-1 draw (yes, another) that ultimately does neither team any favours.

PREDICTION:

Swindon Town 1 – 1 Bradford City