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How Quickly Are Teams Doomed?

Discussion in 'City Talk' started by JonButterfield, Apr 27, 2019.

  1. JonButterfield

    JonButterfield Star Player
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    So the potential demise of Scunthorpe, whose season has been practically identical to ours (with three different managers and zero success), got me thinking - how quickly can you tell if a team is doomed?

    Scunthorpe chairman Peter Swann admitted very, very quickly he'd made a howler appointing Nick Daws. He moved swiftly. While Edin didn't QUITE admit his own mistake with Collins quite so openly or honestly, he did take swift action.

    https://www.thesackrace.com/managerial-casualties

    Looking at the order of managerial casualties, it seems the sooner a team sacks their manager, the more trouble they are in. Is it that obvious? Isn't a change of manager supposed to bring about change in results and form?

    It didn't bring about change for these teams:

    Blackpool (first managerial casualty: Bowyer) - Top Half
    Cheltenham (second managerial casualty: Johnson) - Bottom Half
    Scunthorpe (third managerial casualty: Daws) - Potentially relegated, League One
    Notts County (fourth managerial casualty: Nolan) - Potentially relegated, League Two
    Crawley (fifth managerial casualty: Kewell) - Bottom Half
    Bradford (sixth managerial casualty: Collins) - RELEGATED, League One
    Northampton (seventh managerial casualty: Austin) - Bottom Half
    Aston Villa (eighth managerial casualty: Bruce) - Play-offs
    Macclesfield (ninth managerial casualty: Yates) - Potentially relegated, League Two
    Brentford (tenth managerial casualty: Smith) - Bottom Half
    Ipswich (eleventh managerial casualty: Hurst) - RELEGATED, Championship
    Swindon (twelfth managerial casualty: Brown) - Bottom Half
    Wimbledon (thirteenth managerial casualty: Ardley) - Potentially relegated, League One
    Shrewsbury (fourteenth managerial casualty: Askey) - Bottom Half
    Notts County (fifteenth managerial casualty: Kewell) - Potentially relegated, League Two
    Fulham (sixteenth managerial casualty: Jokanovic) - RELEGATED, Premiership
    Cambridge (seventeenth managerial casualty: Dunne) - Bottom four, League Two
    Southampton (eighteenth managerial casualty: Hughes) - Bottom Half
    Reading (nineteenth managerial casualty: Clement) - Bottom Half
    Bristol Rovers (twentieth managerial casualty: Clarke) - Bottom Half

    To note: Smith left Brentford for a bigger club (Villa), and Bowyer left Blackpool due to the way the club was run rather than results).

    Apart from Villa and Blackpool, everyone who sacked their manager early struggled.

    Nobody successfully turned their season around.

    So if you start badly enough to need to sack your manager, is there no chance whatsoever that you will make significant improvements that season? Seems that way.

    People seem to already be sharpening knives if we don't (for whatever reason) start next season really well (is it even likely?), but perhaps it's worth considering that changing managers early on in a season DID NOT work out for pretty much anyone at all this season.

    Food for thought? Surprising? Or blindingly obvious?
     
  2. Park bantam

    Park bantam Regular Starter
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    Bowyer walked out he wasn’t sacked
     
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  3. JonButterfield

    JonButterfield Star Player
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    Yep, as you will see, that's already covered in the post :coffee:
     
  4. BoingBoing

    BoingBoing Emergency Backup

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    Isn’t it more about what damage had been done to build their squads and what level of manoeuvre the new man can have?

    It’s rare that a manager can pick up a poor squad and get big improvements. And many of the examples you have provided, the squads built by the managers/coaches being sacked, were poor.
     
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  5. QCFC BANTAM

    QCFC BANTAM Regular Starter
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    Jeez, you never wrote this much for the flyby....I have to say I agree with Park, Bowyer walked after 1 game for personal reasons. But we need to keep a manager for more than 6 months at a time, we need to back him for the long term. Remember when we had Parky for a few years and laughed at L++day for Hockaday and others,,,,we have become that over the last year so we need to give him time.
     
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  6. JonButterfield

    JonButterfield Star Player
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    Yeah I know, like I said to @Park bantam@Park bantam, I acknowledged the reasons Bowyer left Blackpool in the sentence about 'exceptions'.

    This doesn't criticise Bowyer at all.

    Strange that multiple posters on here are so incredibly defensive about a post that doesn't even work to Bowyer's detriment, but rather suggests we should be patient next season?
     
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  7. JonButterfield

    JonButterfield Star Player
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    I agree entirely, the question is is it rare for a manager to pick up a poor squad and get big improvements, or totally unrealistic and therefore not worth attempting?

    It didn't work for a single team this year. Now that we work with transfer windows, as opposed to a new man just coming in and signing players like they used to be able to do, surely clubs should be started to get clued up.

    Is there any point at all sacking a manager a month or two after the window has closed?

    Doesn't seem like it.
     
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  8. Park bantam

    Park bantam Regular Starter
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    Let’s hope we don’t have to be patient let’s hope we get off to a flier. There will be big changes in personnel and Bowyer has already got his feet under the table and knows exactly what he wants. There is no reason we can’t get of to a good start
     
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  9. Bantamshell

    Bantamshell Impact Sub

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    It's a good question, stats above suggest the supposed new manager bounce is a bit of a myth. We've definitely not really experienced it recently in spite of all our managerial changes.

    Wonder what would've happened this year if we'd stuck with Collins, couldn't have been much worse than what's happened!
     
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  10. BoingBoing

    BoingBoing Emergency Backup

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    I suppose that if the club realise they appointed the wrong man, it makes sense to get shut as soon as possible, even if the new man can’t make much of an impact until the next transfer window. It will at least allow the new boss plenty of time to assess their squad in preparation for that window.

    And then, of course, you will get the occasional coach that is good enough to get something else from his new group of players. Rare, but it does happen occasionally. Hasenhutti at Southampton is one example, Steve Bruce at Villa being another. But as you point out, these are few and far between
     
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  11. Edinho1

    Edinho1 Emergency Backup

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    We might have come bottom of the league .....
     
  12. Onside

    Onside Squad Player
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    Fascinating stuff. I am wondering whether through gritting teeth we let the ‘sacked manager’ carry on it would turn around the fortunes of the team? After all it is his team and he must have had a plan? Everyone panics when the team start losing and they fear relegation, but there doesn’t appear to be any remedy other than sheer hard work.We have had three managers this season same result. Collins was sacked after 6 weeks, the Hopkin walked after months trying to get things moving, Bowyer had a few weeks with them, but we have still ended up relegated.

    I am not in favour of sacking managers at the drop of a hat, it is disruptive to the whole squad. I think you have to choose your manager, and stick with him through the bad times in the hope he gets it right in the end. It is the choosing of the manager that requires some serious thought and whether they fit with the philosophy of the club. I am absolutely convinced it we had Hopkin or Bowyer at the start of the season we would not have been relegated.
     
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  13. Tom Hallett

    Tom Hallett Impact Sub

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    The new manager bounce worked with Rochdale. They've shot up the league since Brian Barry-Murphy replaced Keith Hill.
     
  14. Fordy117

    Fordy117 Just call me Mr Flip-Flop!
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    Well the new manager bounce isn't a myth:

    Ole at Utd
    Bruce at Wednesday
    Smith at Villa
    Rodgers at Leicester
    Southampton man.

    The manager of a club knows he is judged on results and needs to get off to a good start of risks the sack.

    It's football
     
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  15. Storck

    Storck Regular Starter

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    Pity it didn’t keep working for Ole once he got the job
     
  16. Fordy117

    Fordy117 Just call me Mr Flip-Flop!
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    Ole is out of his depth at Utd.

    He's a Collins appointment for them.

    It's embarrassing how far they're behind City and Liverpool are are becoming a small club
     
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  17. HUDDERSSBANTAM

    HUDDERSSBANTAM Squad Player

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    I disagree that nobody turned their season around.

    Villa have won 10 on the trot and are now in the play-offs.
    Macclesfield looked doomed and now look likely to survive.
    Wimbledon have lost 1 in 11 and look likely to survive, having looked doomed.
    Southampton have improved and will stay up pretty comfortably.
    Bristol Rovers have improved and will stay up pretty comfortably.

    In a small number of cases it does work. Villa and Wimbledon have had huge improvements.

    If you want to change the results, you have to change something. If you can't change the players (due to transfer window) then the Manager is next.
     
  18. Dratsab taf

    Dratsab taf Squad Player

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    I do feel that players themselves do certain managers a massive disservice. Once the players cant be arsed a manager is done for, look at mourinho this year and to an extent mccall and grayson for us this year. Much easier to get rid of one mananger than 10 players.

    Looking at this year, Bruce wasnt at working at villa, they wanted and got him out, the foreign bloke at wednesday couldnt buy a run of wins yet Bruce walks into wednesday and turns them around and had he took over hin December not February they could have been play off material.

    Its catch 22 for an owner, i do think as mentioned above the tipping point is the players. If the team is split or individuals wont perform for a certain manager then thats when he has to go, rightly or wrongly
     
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  19. trevor

    trevor Squad Player
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    The owners have a massive influence as well on the running of the club and the amount of interference they insist on in football matters, They can put enormous pressure on managers
     
  20. Onside

    Onside Squad Player
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    Ole has run into the same problems as the previous manager. Sometimes managers need to get to know the players before results come. Plus it is not all down to the manager, it depends on the balance of the squad, technical ability, and mentality.
     
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