Match Thread Exeter (A) Tue 16/11/2021 & Tue 30/11/2021 19:45

Highlights for anyone who cares

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/football/59311642

 

You used to boast about going to the likes of Exeter on a cold December night, now your calling them stupid, maybe you need to change you're username to "Average Bantam" .

 

That's a bit of a one dimensional response.

 

Sparks has already said that the club has to raise its own funds, therefore whatever he raises he allocates without going back to Rupp for more money.

 

I do believe Adams bringing sucsess to the likes of Ross County Plymouth Argile and last season Morecombe on low budgets did appeal to both Sparks and Rupp but let's not forget his CV is very impressive.

 

Another defeat I see...

No surprise at all. Does it matter, nah.

 

Unless we sell whatever players are worth anything expect a poor January then

 

I dont understand? The xG table compares the actual performances with the expected results based on chance creation for every team. Teams are above us that don’t deserve to be there - ie their form isnt sutainable, their luck will even out and we’ll leapfrog them

 

But football is not a game of expected results, that is part of the mystery of the game and fans turning up every fortnight for the next installment.

 

This isnt based on one game and I wish people would stop going on about it like it is.
It’s a collection of poor results which has resulted in a dreadful run of form.
We should have beaten them last week but didn’t in the first match.
We are no where near Exeter who have not started that well really until the last 6 weeks or so. You can say we played ok and and had chances but come one this is league 2 of course we are gonna have chances in a match. We are not playing Real Madrid ffs

 

yes we've played teams above us - so what?
Bit of an understatement there.. we've ONLY played the top teams in the last 6 games and remain unbeaten. Really we should have beat FGR and with better players beat exeter yesterday.

surely this means when we come across worse teams we do better no? Leakier defences and whatnot. Surely that in itself is logical? We beat swindon (who were 3rd at the time) 3-1 away… this team is really close and is one of the best teams I've seen in a few years easy.

You cannot say past performance isn’t an indicator of future performance but then suggest we wont beat the teams below us. (Or specifically doubt it) All you have suggested is that the result is unquantifiable. Which is fair.

But if we lost to the three on the bounce to the bottom three i know fully well youd be saying we are going down.

maybe a hint of being pessimistic for pessimistic sake.

 

It is logical though

 

I'm very wary of this due to our xG we just need a better striker/always play two up front and we'll be fine.

It's more nuanced than that - I've seen Eoin Doyle's name mentioned along the lines of "if we had him in this team we'd be fine" but Doyle is a different type of player to what we currently have, and his lack of involvement in build up may actually mean we'd create less. The same as if we always played two up front that takes away from somewhere else and potentially leads to fewer opportunities for those two.

Our league results against the top sides in recent weeks haven't been bad, but it doesn't automatically follow that it means we'll beat the lower sides when they come around - as our results show the only teams we have beaten this season have been the very worst teams in the league.

 

Let’s go back to sides who are similar to us or below us and see how we did there recently to show some balance too.

Hartlepool home - lost 1-3
Bristol rovers home - drew 2-2
Crawley away - lost 2-1
Salford away - lost 1-0
Walsall home - draw 1-1

that’s just 5 examples I’ve found. There is no guarantee now our tough run is over based on that we will suddenly start winning games

 

That's a perfect example, we are 9 points light on what we should have had with those 5 games, that would see us up in 1st place...

 

that's fair but with that, it would seem likely we should lose to higher placed teams right? and for context a chunk of the first team was out with injuries at that point too.. its hard to measure form when there's so many variables at play that directly affect performance.
With that in mind you could argue that after Hartlepool a change of formation (4-2-3-1 to a 5-3-2) has improved the team remarkably well. which is backed by the most recent games.

 

Then get spanked 10.0 by Manure with Maguire getting four and Ole coming on as a supersub for two.

 

For the avoidance of doubt, with absolutely no racist comments intended, "Average White Bantam" would be better then he can compare himself to that great 70s/ 80's band (that probably would be banned in this day and age) The Average White Band.

 

In the cold light of day, the defeat last night has very little bearing on our league position or recent form (though it may affect moral) and we should take it with a pinch of salt. We are still a team ready to go on a run if the strikers can somehow find their boots and as I've said before, if we can pick up enough points to be early 30's at the halfway point, the recruitment required is not wholesale.

Yes we need a new striker (probably a poacher), we need a leader in the middle and we need to strengthen at RB, drop Watt who is playing like a rabbit in the headlights and stick a hard line of Songo'o and Sutton in the middle and we are part way there.

Onwards to the Cobblers and a long overdue home win.

 

xG is just a stat like any other and is not a perfect science. On its own it doesn't take into account how many goals your team is letting in. xG would have told you that Huddersfield shouldn't have been promoted years ago on their goal difference but they were. And just because you are higher above someone else in xG take does not mean you are a better side than them. What it does point out is the bloody obvious that we lack goals or an individual good enough to change a game that Adams alluded to with Matt Jay last night coming on to change the game. But then maybe we shouldn't have been so quick to take the money for Crankshaw.