Eoin Doyle

Well, you’ll sell more in L1 than L2. I’ll be surprised if you don’t go up.

 

Whether the chance is created by a defensive mistake doesn't matter I don't think. My understanding of it (Im no expert on how the generate the data) is that the pitch is broken down into theoretical smaller chunks and then when players have shots/chances from the different areas of the pitch they are able to predict how often those chances are converted - using a back catalogue of data from thousands of matches. If the player doesn't register a shot at all, such as in the Oteh example you mention, then it wouldn't contribute towards the xG.

For example, when a player takes a penalty, that has an xG value of 0.70. Each chance can never have an individual value more than 1.0. But you sum each of the chances over the course of the game to get the xG total for each side. Some shots, from a tighter angle, for example, would only be worth 0.1 or 0.2 of a goal, because 10 % of 20 % of chances from those positions, for example, would be converted (plucking the numbers out of the air there just to make a point).

From what I remember from the Expected Philosophy book, I think he said some data collectors factor in whether the shooter was on their stronger or weaker foot and also the trajectory/angle of the cross to them - but don't quote me on it. I know there is a company that was run by the owner of Brentford that were meticulous and collected very detailed and deep data they would sell onto high rolling betting syndicates.

Chances like Oteh's header that hit the bar against Newport would presumably log as chances we could have expected to score.

Basically, there is no cheating or lying with it. If you create good chances and get into good positions you will produce a good xG score. Generally speaking, the best teams produce the best xG scores. There can be exceptions. Leicester have punched above expectations so far, as have Forest Green for a long way in our League. They pass it about prettily in midfield but rarely threaten the opposition goal, so they have a low xG score. You would assume they'd slip down the table in due course as their success is reliant on clinical finishing - converting plenty of the few chances they create. You'd rather be a team that creates more chances, even if not as clinical at converting them, because there is room for error.

 

Does the free trial still exist for WYScout?

 

This post from Ben Mayhew's Experiemental 3-6-1 blog shows our xG throughout the game.

https://experimental361.com/2019/12/01/league-2-timelines-30-nov-2019/

It isn't for Vaughan specifically, it is for our side in total, though. Every time the orange line jumps up we've created a goalscoring chance. There are a number of leaps between 15 and 30 mins which I presume was the time when he missed that header? Just before the 75th minute the line jumps up sharply when he scored his header, so presumably it was a header from a decent enough scoring position?

 

Yes. https://wyscout.com/ click the button in the top right and select what type of membership you need. Just remember to cancel it before the first two weeks is up!

I only signed up to work out Doyle's stats. Did post them on here somewhere, maybe a month ago, then cancelled mine. I think I put on there I wanted to trial the journalist package, cant remember exactly!

 

Re how they calculate xg

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/40699431

The factors taken into account when assessing the quality of a chance include:

• Distance from goal
• Angle of the shot
• Did the chance fall at the player's feet or was it a header?
• Was it a one on one?
• What was the assist like? (eg long ball, cross, through ball, pull-back)
• In what passage of play did it happen? (eg open play, direct free-kick, corner kick)
• Has the player just beaten an opponent?
• Is it a rebound?

 

I was going to have a look as a rule to see if I can follow it when throwing some money about just to see if it is a help, the other link you posted from experimental361 I might have a look at too.

 

I don't think you've seen a post from me suggesting the club will sack Bowyer whilst he has the team in or around the auto's as @Swindon has posted, we usually leave that sort of nonsense to you.

 

There is a free app you can download called Infogol and I sometimes use that to track matches in play and see whether teams who are trailing deserve to be behind. If you click on the stats tab within an individual game and bring up the game map they show the chances on there by circles and the bigger the circle, the better the chance is. They don't cover League Two but its useful for Europe and the big leagues.

The most use I have found for xG, though, is long term for ante post bets. on Ben Mayhew's site he puts up scatter plots. if you look at the ones right at the bottom of pages like this (https://experimental361.com/2019/11/05/scatter-graphics-league-2-5-nov-2019/), on the Expected Goals graphs, teams that fall into the bottom right quarter - 'better attack better defence' are really interesting for long term punts. He hasn't updated these graphs since November but if you are a team in the bottom right you are doing plenty right.

 

He doesn't want us to go up he'd have nothing to bitch about, if it's not the owner it's our Interim CEO, if not him it's the manager, if not him it's one of our coaches mainly Drury, then it's individual players, not being good enough, even suggesting to fellow forum members who'd listen the best way to get one of our players who has been out injured over 2 years was to send him out on loan, to do his rehab.
Are you getting my drift very little (if any credit) even though fans like yourselves recognise we have a side that will be in the shake up come the end of the season.

 

Because you're not a businessman and are happy for @Swindon to laugh at you and the club while he creams over Doyle.

You said yourself that Rhodes wants 20k season ticket sales. That isn't going to happen if Bowyer continues to play this boring brand of football.

If we don't go up or close to it come the end of March then sales could be around 10-12k at best and 12-14k for league 1. They won't be an increase because of Bowyer's style of play.

I'm convinced Rhodes would of dropped hints to Bowyer that fans are bored of his style of play. Questions will be asked if Boring Bowyer is the man to really take us forward if things don't improve soon enough.

 

Blimey, you reckon a club can get promoted by end of March?

I have no problem with you thinking my opinions are a pile of dung, but I am most definitely not laughing at your club or any poster on here.

 

Not promoted. CLOSE! Think we will have an idea of which clubs will be in the battle for automatic spots by then.

You talk like managers in football never get sacked until the end of the season.

 

more waffle from Mr Negative.

 

One thing Fordy is right about here is that there’s no chance were getting near 20k season tickets while we continue with the current boring tactics. It’s like watching paint dry.

 

Back on topic, Eoin has said he wants to stay at Swindon, would be disappointed if we recalled him, and said 'I don't suit them, they don't suit me'.

I'd be surprised if we recalled him with an attitude like that.

 

I've said it before and I will stick to my thoughts but player power will prevail here.

 

Then he'll have to be disappointed. As @Fordy117 says, you can't have the league's leading scorer playing for somebody else, unless we're restricted by doing so or get a transfer fee.

He's just saying the same thing as Payne last year. If he stays at Swindon, let's hope he plays the same as Payne did in the second half of the last season.

 

Me too
We should grab as much as we can from Swindon and use it wisely
Doyle is quite right (not sure it's an attitude problem) he doesn't suit the way we play (neither does Vaughan) but that's the way our leader wants it and he stands or falls by it
The other side is what happens if he gets injured (out for the rest of the season)
Neither the club nor Doyle will get a choice and we are stuck with him
Leave him where he is no one wants an unhappy high earner who doesn't fit to our style of play even though he is the leagues top scorer
Should we fail to get promoted this season it won't be down to Doyle and any attitude it will be down to our negative tactics

 

Nothing wrong with his attitude. He's spot on. Hes happy, playing and scoring goals in a side that's using him properly. His value and career may benefit as a result and hes being honest. Good on him.