COVID-19

exactly, any other demographic and people would be up in arms about their freedom and civil liberties. I hate to be divisive along generational lines but the young really have been shafted hard in the past 15 years or so.

 

Students ?
Lock 'em all up and throw away the key I say...

 

I can assure you it's not been a picnic for the older generation who have mostly abided by the Governments guide lines.
I'm sure you'll be glad to hear my 3rd Covid test has come back as negative.

"Your coronavirus test result is negative. You did not have the virus when the test was done.
You only need to self-isolate if:
- you develop symptoms of coronavirus (you'll need a new test)
- someone you live with tests positive
- you've been traced as a contact of someone who tested positive
For advice on how long to self-isolate, go to www.nhs.uk/coronavirus and read 'Self-isolation and treating symptoms'.
Otherwise, you may return to work if you've not had a high temperature for 48 hours and feel well. Talk to your employer first.
For a care home resident, follow the care homes guidance. If the resident still has symptoms, they may need a repeat test.
For a child or staff at school or nursery, tell the school or nursery.
Contact 111 if you need medical help.
In an emergency, dial 999"

 

I don't think locking up whole sections of society and actually infringing upon their freedoms is much to joke about dude

given young people were told to eat out to help out, have been the demographic alongside the BAME community working most of the high risk customer facing jobs and were then subsequently blamed by pretty much everyone for doing what we were told, I would say comparatively it has been a picnic for you in some ways. whilst in terms of health risks this is much much worse for older people, the vast majority of economic fallout has dropped on younger people and will continue to do so as long as the government keeps mismanaging the crisis and offering non existent or inadequate support to sectors like hospitality.


Glad to hear it came back negative though mate!

 

I've been through all the local figures for England and Wales. I can't guarantee I've missed none but I got 160 rising, 97 flat and 81 falling. If we are doubling every week as the governmement says, why are 178 flat or falling?

English testing has increased by 70% since Sept 1st (128k on Sept 1st to 217k on Sept 25th for Pillars 1-3) when wave 2 suddenly turned up.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing?areaType=nation&areaName=England

Wales testing has just over doubled since Sept 1st.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing?areaType=nation&areaName=Wales

So why are 178 still flat or falling!? How many of of the risers would not be rising when you adjust for the 2/3rds rise in testing in the last 4 weeks in England and doubling in Wales? I don't know. Some were rising sharply but my guess is you will get closer to 1/3rd rising, 1/3rd flat and 1/3rd falling when you adjust for the testing increases. The overall figure would still be up because some of the risers up North were very rapid whereas virtually nowhere is falling very rapidly because so many are close to zero!

So, adjust for testing and cases are only rising in about 1/3rd of England and Wales. It's possibly rapid rises in northern University areas that is driving it up and that will blow over. Freshers week and schools going back do not happen every week. But if cases are flat in 1/3rd and falling in 1/3rd, why did we need to have nationwide restrictions for the 1/3rd that is rising?

Remember - testing has doubled in Wales this month:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Caerphilly

Ipswich's last reported case on the 22nd despite increased testing

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Ipswich

Surely, only a minority of places like Newcastle need restrictions - and it actually looks like it might have been starting to decelerate there already.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Newcastle upon Tyne

And deaths are still pretty subdued compared with cases

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths?areaType=nation&areaName=England

 

I've been following these sources for long anough and have tried to allow for the delays in reporting - which have shortened recently - when assessing.

Ipswich's 7-day average rose to 1.7 from 1.6 but it was 1.9 on the 8th of September. Even though a 7-day average, I would not call such a one day rise of 0.1 an upward trend. If you want to call that upwards, Boris might have job for you. The fact that you're exampling 1 new case yesterday and a 0.1 single day rise in the 7-day average in a town of Ipswich's size to try prove a point just confirms how low cases are in much of southern and eastern England. I've given links. I encourage others to go through the figures themselves and adjust for the 70-100%+ rise in testing in England and Wales and see perfectly the well the points I have made.

The Zoe study got some criticism because it had not been calibrated against swab testing since early September and some seem to think self reporting of the cold epidemic might be exaggerating trends on it. I'm watching it but bearing in mind their could be cross-recording.

 

Without looking through I'm guessing that the places that are flat or falling are the ones that are very sparsely populated (less opportunity for transmission) and/or those that started off with single figure instances (less virus to start with).

I would guess they're the main factors, anywhere is is probably just lagging again.

 

Some can't even follow a simple instruction, was it really worth it.

 

Could be looked at that they gave their lives for our freedom - the ones the government are playing fast and loose with.

 

Yes that's what I was suggesting they gave their lives for our freedom, where do you draw the line when people wont follow the governments advice and hang around after the pub closes, then having to be dispersed by the police.

 

Another day's figures and another day looking nothing like doubling on a week ago. In fact, again ,the trend looks to be decelerating despite rising testing, making lockdown for much of England look unnecessary. Ipswich's update looks more like a downward trend, even though its single case yesterday has appeared , and it's the same same in a few more local authorities. Like I said, the slowdown seems to be spreading from the South and East. Look at the East Midlands trend now. Even England's worst Northeast region is decelerating now

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Ipswich
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=region&areaName=East Midlands
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=region&areaName=North East

Other English regions are all still rising but the rises all look to start decelerating slowly from 9 or 10 days ago and it seems to be gathering steam. The only places still accelerating are Scotland and Wales - but note that Welsh testing has been rising while Scottish has been falling so Scotland looks the big problem area

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=Wales
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=Scotland

Hospital admissions still seem way behind cases, making the virus look weaker or, more likely as other evidence suggests, the explosion in cases has been heavily concentrated in those in education aged 15-24. The rise in hospital admissions in England has slowed slightly in the last couple of days as Scotland's has accelerated. Given Scotland's very sharp rise in cases on reduced testing, I think it's hospital figures will look very bad very soon, even if it is mostly young people. The North/South divide is looking increasingly marked. I think we are closing in on herd immunity in the South and East. And so we should be since our hospital and death figures look similar to Sweden's.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=Scotland

 

Can't dress it up any differently. Its lag. You're looking at incomplete data for the last week. You're gonna keep ignoring that though so I'm going to try to stop pointing it out.

Still not quite figured out how the South has got more immunity than the North when nothing suggests its had more people infected but we'll ignore that too.

 

More areas of Wales going into lockdown. By tomorrow it will be two thirds of the country apparently

 

That video in a nutshell is why the 10pm curfew is absolutely moronic. Loads of vids popped up of young people hanging about on streets etc (another vid floating about of loads at the harbourside in Bristol), all weirdly just after 10pm.

 

Thing is it would have been the same if it was 11pm

 

It's a toxic mixture of a stupid government directive and stupid people thinking they know better.....

 

It's been the same for a month regardless of the closing time.

If it carries on like that then closing time will just keep getting earlier or they'll shut them completely again. I wouldn't count on the hospitality industry getting help through furlough if it gets to that stage.

Regardless of the rules, personal responsibility is the key.

 

we aren't getting much help anyway mate. I'm a big believer they're happy to let most venues and hospitality places go to the wall so the land can be snapped up for a pittance by their developer mates. turfing everyone out onto the street at 10pm means those that do go out will all be in the same place at the same time. Another effect on where I worked was that people just stopped coming. Why go drinking somewhere when you have to go at 10. Poorly thought out to make them look like they're in control, when really their failure to set up and effective test and trace system is causing all of this and most other issues too.