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Brexit

Discussion in 'General Chat' started by Park bantam, Jun 14, 2018.

  1. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Well-Known Member
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    That's right; if we refuse to accept EU compatible terms then we'll be treated the same as most other non-EU countries; which means tariffs. The difference between us and all of those other countries, however, is that we are far more reliant on trade with the EU (both import and export) than they are. The EU is and will continue to be our biggest market because of our proximity and historic EU membership. So the trade tariffs with the EU will have a disproportionately damaging effect for us.

    We will lose all the trade deals with the rest of the world that we had as an EU member. It will take years to replace all of those. So if we are additionally lumbered with tariffs on our EU trade at the same time as we are stuck on disadvantageous WTO terms with the rest of the world, we will be in double jeopardy. Add in the inevitable Covid 19 recession and we will be up sh!t creek without a paddle.

    Meanwhile, Northern Ireland will effectively be a part of the EU for economic purposes, with free trade movement into Eire but a customs border with mainland UK. It can only be a matter of time before that leads to Irish reunification.
     
  2. Bronco

    Bronco Well-Known Member
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    I'm sure the EU don't believe when we leave they will fill our EU contributions by asking Hungary, Poland, Latvia and the other poorer countries to chip in with more finance even though they were main beneficiaries previously, they aren't going to fill our EU contributions so set up forward Germany and France, those countries tax payers will not be happy with that, then of course if they put unrealistic tariffs on their products such as German cars, French wine, Spanish goods etc there will be other countries we can buy from they will have the likes of Mercedes, VW, Audi screaming blue murder, this is hardly cut and dried for the EU thinking the UK will play along with their little game, we have some strong negotiators this time round Theresa May's days are long gone, the remainers had there chance to vote Mays deal through and then they could have had the deal watered down to meet there vision of the EU of the future, they blew it and once she was shown the door and new more determined brexiteers were brought into the cabinet.
    The thing that the present government have to realise is that there were many brexit voters who would normally have voted Labour if they are seen to be taking a soft line and we are still any part of the EU they can say goodbye to those votes again, and if Starmer can drag the Labour party back from the brink then it would make sense to return to their normal support of the Labour Party, and the Tories know this.
     
  3. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Well-Known Member
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    I don't really understand the point you are making Dave.

    Are you saying that if we play hardball in the negotiations then you think the EU will cave in and give us tariff-free trade without complying with their usual conditions? Because I really don't think that's going to happen. If they do that then the right wing countries like Hungary and Poland will want to stop free movent of labour etc and the whole basis of the single market will fall apart. The likes of Mercedes and BMW have already made clear that they will prioritise the integrity of the single market over tariff- free trade with us. Yes, the EU will take a short term hit from the loss of our contributions, but they'll ride it out. They aren't going to undermine the entire basis of the single market by giving us special conditions, so we either maintain compliance with their standards or accept tariffs.

    Or are you saying that it doesn't matter if we divert from EU conditions and end up with tariffs between us and the EU, because we can trade with other countries instead? If so then I think that's very naive. Europe is, and always will be, our biggest trading market because of its proximity. We can switch some of our trade elsewhere but that will take time and will never replace our European trade. Having tariffs on our trade with Europe would have very negative economic consequences for us at any time, and that will be even worse when we are trying to recover from the coronavirus recession.
     
  4. trevor

    trevor Well-Known Member
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    Tarrifs if imposed will be reciprocal and would hit the main players in the EU hard, The vast majority of trade is with Germany, France and Italy, the rest of the EU is a tiny amount of trade, Asia will be quick to make deals and replace the car imports from Germany and other major imports can be easily replaced from other suppliers,
    I understand we are the biggest customer of the German car industries (including parts) and tarrifs imposed by the UK and even import restrictions would hit the German economy hard with up to 100,000 jobs at risk, The same applies with France with cars, wines and cheeses and Italy with other food stuffs and cars
    If we play hardball they will give in, Its a ploy the EU typically use in negotiations as a bullying tactic using time as a pressure when doing deals, Hold our nerve and we will get a good deal
     
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  5. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Well-Known Member
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    So you think they will be prepared to completely undermine the basis of the single market (ie you have to accept all its conditions if you want seamless, tariff-free trade) and risk individual EU countries demanding similar deals, do you?
    If you include trade between EU countries, we represent just over 6% of total EU exports and 18% of total EU exports if you discount their internal trading. Sure, we are a big market for them, but not so big as to be worth undermining the entire single market project. German exports to the UK represent just over 2.5% of their GDP. By contrast, around 48% of our exports are to the EU. Tariffs would be a much bigger disaster for us than for them.
     
  6. Bronco

    Bronco Well-Known Member
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    I'm saying if the EU continue as they are and believe they can keep us within EU jurisdiction even when we leave I can't see a deal being brokered and the government will do as they have promised and walk away as they have said, no deal is better than a bad deal.
    We were looking for a Canada + deal but were told we couldn't have it because we were too near Europe, Trevor puts it far better than me the world will not end when we exit the EU, have a little faith in the Britush people.
     
  7. Tony Wilkinson

    Tony Wilkinson Well-Known Member
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    I've stopped responding to Mr Doom & Gloom, cheery fella ain't he...?
     
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  8. Bronco

    Bronco Well-Known Member
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    We are going on 4 years down the road since the referendum and there are arguments and counter arguement both sides.
    What we are seeing resently within the EU suggests it's far from a group of countries who agree on major issues, the quotas of refugees for each country is not being accepted by many of the Ex Balcan countries,.
    Now we see the French navy escorting dingies carrying asylum seekers to the edge of Frence waters so they then become a UK problem, these are our friends, glad they aren't our enemies.
     
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  9. Rogered Tart

    Rogered Tart Well-Known Member
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    I feel sorry for a lot of these asylum seekers, nothing more than pawns in large scale people smuggling, promised a better life but ending up as nothing more than slave labour. They said they would clamp down on the black market of illegal workers, its worse now than its ever been but as usual the poor buggers at the bottom get the blame.
     
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  10. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Well-Known Member
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    The EU don't 'believe that they can keep us in their jurisdiction'. They are simply saying we can't have our cake and eat it. If we want seamless trade with Europe, with no tariffs or customs checks, then we have to abide by their rules. If we want to go our own way, fine, but we must accept the economic consequences of being treated just like other non-EU countries. It's our choice. Leaving in December didn't alter that dilemma, it just postponed it.

    It seems that Johnson has decided that we will opt for the customs checks rather than the regulatory compliance and has drawn a border down the Irish Sea, leaving Ulster in a customs union with the EU. May refused to contemplate cutting a part of the UK adrift from the rest of it, and Johnson previously promised it wouldn't happen. But he has now quietly reneged on that promise, in his customary fashion.

    Internal EU disputes about quotas of asylum seekers etc makes it less likely than ever that we will be given exceptional status as a non-EU member. The last thing that the big players like France and Germany want is to allow us to control movement of people but still keep the economic benefits of free trade in the internal market. If they grant such concessions to us then the ex-Soviet bloc countries will start to demand similar rights and the whole basis of the single market will be in jeopardy. Bonn, Paris and Brussels will be determined to make sure that the EU speaks as one on this - you only get free trade if you accept all the rules.
     
    #2390 Offcomedun, May 22, 2020
    Last edited: May 22, 2020
  11. Bronco

    Bronco Well-Known Member
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    Yet the media tell us these asylum seekers are paying illegal traffickers big money to get them across the Englisg channel, and the French navy are not merely allowing it to happen but they are actually encouraging it by giving them a safe journey out of French waters.
    I get your above but there are legal ways of getting to the UK that many previously have been successful in doing, we cant turn a blind eye to those who in their first act of trying to get asylum is illegal with regards the way they are entering the country.
    And when is enough enough ?.
     
  12. Bronco

    Bronco Well-Known Member
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    You haven't commented with regards Canada+ that we were asking for, the EU offered it originally prior to May's debacle so we were told, if the UK negotiators are happy with the same trading agreements as Canada what's the problem ?.
     
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  13. Rogered Tart

    Rogered Tart Well-Known Member
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    The media tell you what you want to hear. Truth is there are business owners over here only to willing to help facilitate the moving of these so called asylum seekers for nothing more than slave labour. Imagine being that desperate you would cling to a dinghy in the middle of the ocean for hope of a better life.
     
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  14. Bronco

    Bronco Well-Known Member
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    We could use that arguement for any one who lives in war torn countries etc, it does not make it right that they get away with doing an illegal act when many others have done the right thing and gone through the legal process.
    Don't you wonder how the vast majority are fit young men, and less families.
     
  15. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Well-Known Member
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    According to a recent BBC article, which I can't seem to copy a link for, a Canada + deal would involve us agreeing to align some of our standards with those of the EU, which many Brexiteers, particularly in the ERG, don't want to do. It would also involve customs checks, which most UK companies want to avoid.

    I think the problem for the EU is twofold. Firstly, what works as a trade deal with a country halfway round the world doesn't necessarily work with a large economy like ours parked just outside their front door. They are, quite understandably, very wary of giving us any concessions which might lead to us being able to undercut their trading position by producing (eg) cheaper goods with lower standards at lower cost than theirs. If we want to do that (and that is precisely what what many Tories do want us to do) then we have to suffer the consequences of tariffs, which will hit us much harder than them.

    Secondly, and also quite understandably, they don't trust Johnson or the ERG Tories as far as they could throw them. So they will want to take their time and get any deal (if they offer one at all) as watertight as possible so that Johnson can't go back on promises as he has done throughout his career.
     
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  16. trevor

    trevor Well-Known Member
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    The EU are proving the Brexiteers right, They are frightened of a vibrant, enterprising, expansive economy competing on their doorstep,

    Interesting that Renault are considering moving production of two top models to
    Sunderland!
     
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  17. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Well-Known Member
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    'A vibrant, enterprising, expansive economy' eh? Well, the last time we were one of those was over ten years ago under Blair and Brown and we've a hell of a long way to go to get anywhere near being one again.
    What the EU is, understandably frightened of, is a low wage, poor conditions, cheap labour economy parked just off their shoreline and undercutting them. And that's exactly what many Tories want to turn us into. So, of course they aren't going to grant us special concessions unless they get guarantees that that won't happen.
     
  18. Park bantam

    Park bantam Well-Known Member
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    It looks like Dominic Cummings will have little choice but to resign has he broke the isolation rules very bad news for Boris and Brexit
     
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  19. Tony Wilkinson

    Tony Wilkinson Well-Known Member
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    Resign from what though...? he's only an 'advisor'.....
     
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  20. Park bantam

    Park bantam Well-Known Member
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    He is a paid government adviser close to pm
     
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