Afghanistan

The inevitable miserable end to a(nother) botched mission. I think Biden was quite right today to say that he didn't want his soldiers fighting and dying in a war where the locals weren't doing their share. The real losers will be the women, who, one can expect, will now see 20 years of progress wiped out. As I read somewhere else, it's the women who should have been armed, not the men!

I wonder who will be next to try their hand? Us, Russia, the US have all had a go...maybe China?

Another post I read elsewhere is worth copying in part here (written by an American, as far as I know). I take it on trust that the facts and figures are correct:

"The last really successful and coordinated occupation and rebuilding of defeated nations was probably at the end of WW2. I find it hard to get good figures for the number of allied forces that occupied Germany 1945-1952, but Japan is easier.

Japan is about 60% as large as Afghanistan, with somewhat less rugged terrain. Nevertheless, the Allied occupation force in 1946 was about 470,000 troops (430,000 US and 40,000 British Commonwealth). And the formal occupation lasted 6-7 years (until 1952), with three years before Japan became even partially self-governing again. With rotations and replacements, about 1 million US troops served in the occupation at one point or another. About 30,000 US troops remain in Japan even today, for strategic reasons.

Additionally, the US provided economic assistance of about $17 billion in today's money.

And that was in a country that already had an industrialized economy and modern education system and a fairly stable (if not democratic) system of government.

Given the extra challenges in Afghanistan, the US and its allies should have realized that to really pacify and create a sustainable outcome in Afghanistan would require more than double the effort and double the cash aid. A well-equipped occupying force of 1 million for 20 years minimum, to fully pacify (or eliminate) the Taliban. Allied military government by competent people for 5-7 years before even attempting to restore local rule. "Crimes aginst Humanity" trials for Taliban leadership. A trillion $$ just in financial aid. And a residual force of 100,000 or so for up to 70 years while the process matured.

Expensive? You bet!

But no, we tried to do it on the cheap (across party lines) - and the result we see today is what should have been expected."

I don't think that poster is too far off with his estimates of the manpower and financial resources needed. What he doesn't mention is that in both Japan and Germany, you also had highly civilised, cultured populations, who were ready and willing to do all the dirty work needed to rebuld their countries.

RCB

 

There was a certain inevitability about this outcome. As well as the people of Afghanistan you have to feel for the families, friends and colleagues of the servicemen and women of all countries who gave their lives for seemingly nothing. The financial cost is secondary to this.

 

It's a very sad state of affairs indeed. I've been on holiday this last week and not seen much of it so wondered if Biden is getting hammered for it and if there are the inevitable "wouldn't have happened under Trump" comparisons?

I've certainly no point to make as I haven't read or seen enough of it so I'm massively uninformed but I just wondered what other people's thoughts were without politicising it, if it's possible.

 

These basket case countries don't want democracy or civilisation, not a Biden fan but can't disagree when he questions why should we (the west) fight for their countries when they won't help themselves despite all the money and manpower we supply..?

 

It was doomed from the start, Leaving a crooked leader in place for 20 years, To many politicians involved meddling and a half hearted attempt on a military campaign the locals did not support,
Lesson number one? You cannot enforce democracy on a country from the outside by military means, It must grow organically from within
The biggest threat now will be the Taliban will now build up their forces in Pakistan who are a nuclear power

 

I agree, I can’t say I’m all that knowledgable on the affairs out there. But I thought one of the reasons we were out there was to train and modernise the Afghan army against such threats. Yet many reports say many places were taken without any fighting, the army should have had more modern equipment and have been more well trained if not who’s armed and trained the Taliban to make it so easy for them to stride through the country? For me many men in the region most likely share their philosophy and simply let it happen, the women would literally have put up a better fight as at least they’d have thought for freedom! It’s awful for the civilians but I don’t agree with going back there as it would be only more blood shed and clearly many actually want a strict Islamic rule otherwise there would have been far more fighting. Diplomacy is probably the last option now. It won’t do the women and children much good unfortunately.

 

I'm not up to speed on all this, but to me there seems to be an elephant in the room. Why have those countries who have harboured the Taliban for the last 20 years scott free of any blame in all this?

 

That's right, there are plenty of like minded countries in that area and yet I suspect the English channel is about to get even busier...

 

I suspect the reason the Afghan forces did not fight when the US troops left them was simply that Afghanistan is a Muslim country, The Afghan army are Muslim, The Taliban are Muslim,

 

Lots of British vets in particular coming out and saying the slander from Biden towards to Afghan forces was ridiculous. Easy for westerners to sit there and say "the Afghans never fought for their freedom"... Yet when retired servicemen are coming out and defending the ANA you have to realize something was wrong from the start.

 

Unfortunately its not the first time the Afghanistan army have not driven the enemy out without help from the West.
I find it amazing that the powers that be US, UK, EU etc are surprise how little resistance (if any) was put up against the Taliban.
Listening to the Taliban leader they say it will be a different Taliban this time, they will allow females to go to school but only up to the age of 12, and they will still cut limbs off for thieves and stone (I assume women) for adultery.

 

So what was Biden supposed to have done then? Sent back the 15,000 troops that Trump pulled out? Can you imagine the outcry from all sides of the political spectrum if he'd done that? And the response from Congress and Senate? He was on a hiding to nothing. Trump's 'deal' with the Taliban left 2.5k US troops remaining in there as sitting ducks with the agreed withdrawal date already past and no ceasefire immunity. The damage had already been done and Biden was left holding a poison chalice.