Afghanistan

Some great speeches in Parliament today, mostly from Conservative backbenchers, but that was by far the best.

Completely noticeable that there was minimal support for the government and pretty much utter disdain for what Biden had said from all corners of the house, especially from those with previous military experience.

 

The issue seems to be that we have trained the Afghan army in the image of a Western army. Reliant on surveillance, air support and communication infrastructure which is why they could be supported with basically a minimal operational presence. Its worth remembering that no US soldier has died in Afghanistan since February 2020 so all the fighting was actually being done by the local army......which makes Bidens statement all the more disgusting.

When the US removed those key aspects they were basically back to being an armed militia who were at a disadvantage to the Taliban despite lesser numbers.

But as a general point you're quite right in that it's easy for politicians to make decisions on war when they're not going. It's why the guys with knowledge of military operations who spoke today were so impressive. Once you have people there you should see it through though rather than leaving the people you're fighting in a stronger position than when you started and leaving people who have supported you to their fate.

 

All this is likely true. But the decision is whether to help your allies to see it through or turn and run.

If you choose to turn and run then own it don't start implying that people who had fought and died under your flag showed cowardice when you're the one turning tail.

Also make sure you're leaving people who were helping you are going to be okay.

I actually have no issue with them withdrawing in general (I hope they remember it the next time they want to start chucking their weight around but probably wont) but it's the lack of planning execution and the poor rhetoric that is really annoying to me.

 

All of this is mighty fine and completely true.

But he can at least try to do the right thing and if he gets bogged down in the complex processes then so be it.

But just watch these interviews which are 6 weeks apart.





This is not a President who has been tied in knots by a bureaucratic process. It's a President that has gone down the route that he wanted, underestimated the enemy and is now coming across as uncaring.

Then this morning he's rather chillingly said..."If there's American citizens left, we're gonna stay to get them all out," I would hope what he actually meant is 'Americal allies" because if they start pulling up the drawbridge before all of our people are out then we might have a massive issue.

Imagine if other presidents had responded to people falling from planes with "Ah yeah but that was 5 day ago" or said that this type of chaos was inevitable and built in to the decision making a month after saying it wouldn't happen.

 

Well if it's not something he wants he's doing a damn fine job of justifying and doubling down on it. Why are we making excuses when we can hear his actual words, he's not had his arm put up his back.

Unless the senate and Congress are writing his speeches as well?

I agree it will go down pretty well in the insular parts of America (I mentioned it was a ll a little bit "Little Englander" but that's the actual worry when so much of our policy is intrinsically tied to their capabilities. An MP said on TV this morning that Trump was overtly 'America First' but Biden is actually coming across as 'America Only'.

 

Not good is it although the accusation of lack of support in the preceding weeks is more of a concern to me than the actual phonecall. I'm not sure how much difference a phonecall to a minister in a failing/failed government would have made in reality but even the perception that they're not doing everything possible is a negative.

In the short term I think there's probably more important things to focus on but it will definitely be worthy of investigation.

 

Slightly disagree about the COBR meeting as the PM doesn't always chair them (but it does give a window into how serioulsy it was being viewed)

However in this case you're right. Arguments can be made that after 18 months of pandemic you don't always have to be in the same location to get on with your work and that he was back in Whitehall for the Monday morning but overall it's not a good look to be on holiday while such major events are happening.

The focus on the single phone call by the media might actually be letting Raab off the hook a little bit though. From a common sense point of view I can't see what difference it would have actually made given the situation his Afghan opposite number would have been in. The wider accusations of sleepwalking through the crisis are much more damning.

It is a shame because Raab is undoubtedly one of the smartest people in Parliament from an academic/experience point of view but he also comes across a bit of a sociopath!