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10-game segments (it's baa-ack!)

Discussion in 'City Talk' started by River_City_Bantam, Sep 29, 2018.

  1. River_City_Bantam

    P.L. 23/24 Top 20 P.L.24/25 Entrant P.L. 20/21 Top 10

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    New season, new stats, we go again!

    First 10: 2-1-7, 7-15, 7.

    This was not an opening segment to gladden the heart.
    • the first time we have lost 7 of our first 10 league matches since the re-election season of 1965/6, and only the 5th time we've done that in our history
    • on pace for 32 goals for, and 69 against
    • on pace for 32 points
    The goals-against total wouldn't be that bad on its own, but our inability to score makes it deadly. The points-pace is at propping-up-the-table levels. (We need to get to 55 points to really be sure of safety.)

    For the sake of the following comparisons, I've re-calculated points-totals using 3 points for a win.

    We have had worse beginnings, with 1926/7's 5 points leading the way. Another five seasons produced 6-point starts (two of those were our Premiership years). Including this season, six seasons have seen 7-point starts. Overall, I make it that we have had 19 seasons where the opening 10 games have produced fewer than 10 points. Five of those seasons ended in relegation, and a sixth in re-election. In three of those seasons we actually ended up doing well, with top-10 finishes.

    Thus at the moment the outlook is bleak; hopefully the 20-game update will be more positive.

    RCB
     
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  2. How

    How Knows Football
    P.L. 18/19 Winner Euro 2020

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    Luckily its not how you start but how you finish.

    We badly need goals and from all over.

    Think its only 3 different scorers at the minute? Awful return

    Hope Hopkin can get his own backroom men in and soon
     
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  3. River_City_Bantam

    P.L. 23/24 Top 20 P.L.24/25 Entrant P.L. 20/21 Top 10

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    True enough, we do have time to turn it around. But history suggests that anything better than a mid-table finish will be an achievement. We really cannot afford another such segment. A run like this would never be good, but if it has to happen, perhaps more in the middle of the season, to a reasonably settled side otherwise doing well, would be the time to have it.

    The goals-for is indeed a proper disaster area. Miller brought the number up to four scorers, and that includes the cups. Our potential main scorer only has two penalties to his credit -- though had the penalty shouts over the past few matches been given, that total could look better. One way or another this needs to change, because even a run of 35 0-0's to close out the season will still see us relegated!

    CTRL-ALT-DEL and reboot the season!

    RCB
     
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  4. bantamdave41

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Supporter Euro 2020

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    2 home goals in 5 games is reflective of the worrying times we currently endure.
     
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  5. River_City_Bantam

    P.L. 23/24 Top 20 P.L.24/25 Entrant P.L. 20/21 Top 10

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    Time for an update, depressing as it may be...

    1st 10: 2-1-7 7-15 7
    2nd 10: 2-1-7 8-21 7

    Despite a few hints of better times ahead, this was another disastrous segment. We continue on pace for 32 points, with 34 goals for and 83 goals against. We must improve dramatically or we will be relegated, with a very good chance of being the bottom side.

    14 points from our first 20 matches is our joint third-worst total ever, after the 9 (when converted) of the 1926 season and the 12 of 2000. We also had 14 (when converted) in the 1964 season.

    A few other breakdowns:

    Home: 2-1-7 7-15 7
    Away: 2-1-7 8-21 7

    Leading at HT: 4-1-0
    Drawing: 0-1-5
    Trailing: 0-0-9

    Collins: 2-0-4 4-8 6
    Hopkin: 2-2-10 11-28 8

    VP is not a fortress, and we have almost no ability to gain points from losing or even drawing positions.

    Dare I hope that the next update will be more upbeat? We have some winnable matches coming up, and the January transfer window will play a role as well.

    RCB
     
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  6. JonButterfield

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant

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    Good work, very interesting to see the first 10 was actually the same as the more recent 10 - kind of surprised, actually, because I felt we'd gone backwards if anything results-wise.

    I'm willing to throw my hat in the ring and say we'll get far more than the standard 7 points from the next 10 games - I'll double that, and then some, and say we grab an optimistic 18 points.
     
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  7. bantamdave41

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Supporter Euro 2020

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    Jon I love your optimism.

    By my reckoning there are permutations..

    4 wins, 6 draws, no defeats
    5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats
    6 wins, 0 draws, 4 defeats.

    Fixtures : Plymouth (22) away, Walsall (13) home, Scunthorpe (20) home, Sunderland (2) away, Rochdale (17) away, Accrington (11) home, Shrewsbury (15) home, Barnsley (5) away, Southend (14) home and Burton (16) away. ( Position as of tonight, in brackets).

    6 of these games are before new reinforcements **may be** brought in. I'm sorry but I struggle to see beyond 12 points in this period.

    But, I'm more than happy for you to be correct!!
     
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  8. JonButterfield

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant

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    Pretty much agree with you - but a hard fought win at Plymouth, and there are winnable games there... momentum will be everything if we're to get such a high points haul - we'll have to beat virtually every beatable team.

    So I'm going:

    Wins: Plymouth, Southend, Scunthorpe, Rochdale, Shrewsbury
    Draws: Accrington, Walsall, Burton
    Losses: Sunderland, Barnsley

    W-D-W-L-W-D-W-L-W-D

    It's not like I'm even going for consecutive wins :joy::joy::joy:

    But I agree it's optimistic :D:D:D
     
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  9. bantam65

    P.L. 23/24 Top 10 P.L.24/25 Entrant Supporter

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    Should it not be?
    10 Game Segments... Its baaaaa-aaad !!!!
     
  10. How

    How Knows Football
    P.L. 18/19 Winner Euro 2020

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    It is grim reading so far and performances have matched the low points tally sadly.

    Practically 8 points behind at the minute with our goal difference
     
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  11. RonnieBrown

    RonnieBrown Emergency Backup

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    This is where the Peterborough game could play a massive role ...........

    City put in a decent performance, and things will 'look' brighter again. However - Another thrashing could see a 'punch drunk' side having to face Plymouth Away :(
     
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  12. Onside

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Supporter

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    Momentum can actually get you going in the right direction. It is important to put this match into perspective for the players. Yes mistakes were made by both players and manager, and against a rampant Luton side who have been great at home. We mustn’t beat ourselves up. We need to go to Peterborough with confidence, we want to win or at least a draw, but if not we move on.

    We have to keep believing we can get out of this, at some point we will get some momentum, let’s hope it is sooner rather than later.
     
  13. Old city man

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    To give ourselves the best chance of escape,we have to improve the players discipline.Losing two major players prior to one of the hardest away games is just asking for trouble.

    You start to make a little progress and then lose two players for discipline issues and it's just shooting ourselves in the foot.

    I've seen posts saying Hopkin is always changing the players.How can he not do that? We have a poor,unbalanced squad.The thing that makes that worse is losing numbers minimising options.

    We have to stop losing players through suspension,losing through injury is bad enough!
     
  14. Aireboro Bantam

    Aireboro Bantam Impact Sub

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    Spot on. Luton was always going to be a tough game but having to make more switches due to suspensions was never going to help. The players also have to take their responsibility for that over the course of the season.

    December could easily decide our fate this early. A continuation of current form and we'll probably be too far gone even before the January window opens. We simply have to start improving and picking up wins. Avoid defeat against Plymouth and we go into two winnable home games - how big they could be. Being in the FA Cup 3rd Round could be a welcome confidence boost as well.
     
  15. River_City_Bantam

    P.L. 23/24 Top 20 P.L.24/25 Entrant P.L. 20/21 Top 10

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    Update time again, with a somewhat rosier outlook than before.

    1st 10: 2-1-7, 7-15, 7
    2nd 10: 2-1-7, 8-21, 7
    3rd 10: 5-2-3, 21-15, 17

    Thanks especially to December, we have improved considerably. We are now on a pace for 48 points, which has guaranteed safety in some seasons. The pace over the last 10 matches is much better, indeed it is a playoff pace. If we could now stay at about a 1.5 points-per-match pace, we'll get to my preferred 55 points. We still concede too many, but our new-found goalscoring touch can cover for that -- as it did today. (I wouldn't want to bank on that always happening, though.) The goal difference has improved greatly over the first 20 matches.

    A few other breakdowns:

    Home: 6-1-8, 20-22, 19
    Away: 3-3-9 16-29 12

    Leading at HT: 9-2-0
    Drawing: 0-1-5
    Trailing: 0-1-12

    Collins: 2-0-4, 4-8, 6
    Hopkin: 7-4-13, 32-43, 25

    We remain awful unless we have a halftime lead, but the Burton point at least broke our duck when trailing at the half. A long way to go yet, but it isn't unreasonable to be hopeful.

    RCB
     
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  16. JonButterfield

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant

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    17 points against an estimate of 18!

    Not bad :)
     
  17. bantamdave41

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Supporter Euro 2020

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    Well sir, as I said I'd be happy to see you right. Damn right I'm happy.

    So I doff my hat off to you and look forward for your reasoned predictions for the next 10.
     
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  18. JonButterfield

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant

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    Well, I don't think we'll match December's excellence, but I reckon we'll bag 15 points from the next 10 - bang on the money in terms of what we'll need to guarantee survival with a perfect 1.5 points per game.

    That would leave us with a nailbiting run in, but assuming we can hold it together after the nightmarish Portsmouth-Peterborough-Luton trio without players or fans throwing in the towel even if we lose all three, there's a real opportunity for points.

    Wins: Fleetwood, Plymouth, Oxford, Blackpool
    Draws: Wycombe, Walsall, Charlton
    Losses: Portsmouth, Peterborough, Luton
     
  19. Park bantam

    Park bantam Regular Starter

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    Would be a good draw at Wycombe they are having a good season
     
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  20. JonButterfield

    Euro24 PL Entrant P.L.24/25 Entrant Qatar 2022 Entrant

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    Should be a few goals in it, two teams with very high aggregated goals.
     

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