Election 2019 (with Prediction Poll)

i'm no expert on this sort of stuff but i guess the majority of constituencies always vote the same regardless. What areas would Labour realistically need to have a real chance of picking up seats and why aren't these areas guaranteeing a labour seat?

 

No losers on the political spectrum. All will claim victory no matter what happens.

 

What a weird standpoint to take as you ask the electorate to decide on the party to sort out Brexit-which is really what this GE is all about.

 

You’re right, about 75% of constituencies are of no real interest and they’re sewn up from the start. They do change over time, but they’re much more of a long term trend that makes it predictable when it does happen. Wrexham is a good example, Labour since 1935, but will probably go Conservative this time around. It’s not really a shock, just part of a much longer trend where the demographic of the area has slowly changed to a more Tory friendly one. I guess Hove is the counter example. Never been Labour before 1997 and now a relatively safe seat.

As for what Labour has to do, the realistic answer really is stand still, hold on to what they have, maybe make some surprise gains, and watch the Conservatives drop seats here and there to the SNP or the Lib Dems. It’s only going to take about a ten seat shift out of 650 to throw it all wide open. If they are looking at making gains, it’s likely going to be places in the South East that have seen favourable demographic shifts over time like Milton Keynes or Reading. Somewhere like Kirklees will be interesting. Currently Labour hold three out of four seats, and they could be under threat if Labour are having a bad night. Over 650 seats though, there’ll be some strange results here and there.

One to possibly look out for is Uxbridge, Boris Johnson’s seat. It’s very much not out of the question that he loses it. Which would be objectively as hilarious as if Corbyn lost his seat. Very.

 

Did a very quick search to see how many english seats had a majority of approx 5,000 or less and there are roughly 80 seats;
It would only take at most 2,501 voters to change their vote to change the mp, numbers wise that does not seem alot and why if 75% seats never change in FPTP rules it is a depressing thought.
Rumoured that 1 million new young voters registered this time but if they are centred in the cities i doubt they influence much change.
Would love to see most of the entitled, self-serving mps not just boris and corbyn but emily thornberry/abbott/butler and mogg/patel/gove and the hedge fund backed andrea loadsom turfed out but it looks like only raab and swinson are on the hot seat.

Havent had a GE for nearly 100 years in december and for good reason.
However in a weeks time maybe the voters will deliver us some surprises.

A few months ago we had the euro elections and the biggest winners were the brexit party and the lib dems.
Where are they now?

 

Thing is that it’s really difficult to look at simple majorities in seats and definitively say that somewhere is in play. Finchley and Golders Green is a great example with a majority of about 2,000. On paper, it’s Labour seat target 32 - so one you could reasonably expect Labour to be taking on a good night, and one that Labour could pip off through sheer chance on an average night.

It’s about the direction of travel in that seat though. I’d say there was a near zero chance of Labour taking that particular seat, despite the small majority. Due to a very high local Jewish population, it’s just completely out of the picture, and will be fought between the Lib Dems and Conservatives. The Lib Dems are coming into that seat with a serious ambition of taking it, despite only getting 3,000 votes last time out against the Conservative’s near 25,000.

The serious problem with FPTP is that huge chunks of the country effectively don’t have a vote. Personally I haven’t ever lived in a seat that’s been decided by anything less than a five figure majority, and consequently have barely had the chance to cast a meaningful vote in a GE. Someone from Keighley on the other hand this time around find themselves in an ultra marginal with a relatively huge weight on their vote nationally.

Quick one on the EU elections - these are fought on the D’Hondt system of proportional representation, which means you can vote for whoever you want, wherever you are and your vote will count for that party with a legitimate chance of representation. Under FPTP for a GE, it will always tend towards a 2-party system, it’s exactly the same in the US on a grander scale (and I say that as a Labour voter that is being buffeted by this system). We also know that when people know they’re not voting for a PM, they’re looser with their vote. It’s the same in council elections.

 

Eugh! She looks like a skinny version of Miss Trunchbull from the film Matilda.

 

Not my proudest w@ank i must admit.

 

For shame.

 

Better than knocking one out over Emily Thornberry I suppose.

 

This is a link to the submission to the EHRC.

https://www.scribd.com/document/438367082/Redacted-JLM-Closing-Submission-to-the-EHRC

The abuse the bbc journalist has recieved for posting this which includes 70 sworn testimonies by serving and ex Labour officials it from the sewer, with a whole host of crackpot theories on why is has been released.

 

I have standards, low ones i admit. But not that low.

 

Father of Jack Merritt, who was tragically murdered last week, urging people to vote against the Tories

 

Is this the same guy who didn't want his son's death used for political gain?

 

That doesnt make sense. Why would he want people to vote for a terrorist sympathising crackpot or a leader who is so far out of her depth, its scary.

 

SNP leadership is stating that if they "win" in Scotland they will demand another Independence Referendum. By win they mean the most seats. They do not speak for Scotland as a whole -at the last general election almost 700,000 more votes were cast to parties wishing to stay in the U.K.

 

How's he using it for political gain? He's not even a politician. And what he actually said was that he doesn't want it weaponised by the far right who stand for everything his son reviled.

 

I know we’re all different but I’ll never understand some people, when I have lost someone close to me I’ve been inconsolable, am I pathetic?

I ask because the poor lads father reminds me of Jo Cox’s husband, instead of being devastated they’re all over social media using their loved ones death for their political agenda. Could never do it myself.

 

Takes 2 minutes to write a tweet, even a bereaved person is capable of doing that. Surely it's a fitting tribute to his son to post about something that was clearly really important to him.