COVID-19

The thing is though that it wasn't being presented as a hypothetical situation, it was being used as a direct reason why the government need to be overly cautious.

So if we're now saying that the hypothetical situation that was presented won't actually happen does that also remove the necessity for the caution which resulted from it?

If I said there would be zero new infections resulting from the lifting of restrictions it would come across as a bit of a WUM thing to say. So equally saying 20m infections would result from opening 4 weeks prior to what you're suggesting should probably be taken in the same way?

 

you do realise I'm not an epidemiologist right? you are jumping down my throat specifically about a reasonable hypothetical situation, and your calling me a wum too. give it a break please.

 

I do realise you're not an expert and I'm not jumping down you throat.

I'm just asking that if you use particular numbers to justify a particular course of action.....but then it turns out the numbers were always intended to be make believe......then does it mean the resulting course of action is not longer justified?

 

There was nothing reasonable about expecting 1% of 20m requiring hospital the same time when only 4.5m cases have been confirmed since March 2020.

A reasonable hypothetical situation is to take hospitalizations per age group over the pandemic and to calculate it with a vaccine risk factor. So take under 30s and calculate it as the same rate as they are mostly unvaccinated. Take 30s to 55s and take them as reduced risk as they are partly vaccinated and take the over 55s as very reduced risk as they are fully vaccinated.

Factor that into the 450k hospitalizations there have been over the last 15th months as you will come out with a reasonable estimate of what hospitalizations might be as a proportion of cases.

Seeing as only 40 of 15m people have died under age 20, you can see that the risk for unvaccinated will below, and nothing like the sage data of 10k per day.

 

the difference is the actual epidemiologists are informing government policy.

the more important question for me, is "always intended to be make believe." are you aware of any government or heath professionals purposely inflating figures to prove a point. or was that just me? who has no gauge on any sort of pull on health policy in this county? perhaps you are making a mountain out of a mole hill.

 

do you have a link for that sage statement? even for me that's silly of them to say.

 

Just you....but I'm only asking your opinion so you're all that matters.

 

It is one of their predictions on the effects of reopening at each stage.

As it stands we are currently running better than their best case scenario.

 

This is an interesting one. Do think i found that graph here.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963440/S1129__Unlocking__Roadmap_Scenarios_for_England_.pdf
at around page 6

But in a newer report here
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975910/S1183_SPI-M_Imperial_College_London_Evaluating_England_s_Roadmap_out_of_Lockdown.pdf

this is said on page 6 AND if you look on page seven, the deaths we see now are more aligned with the more recent prediction.

The total deaths estimated is lower than predicted in one of our previous reports due to the much higher vaccine uptake assumed.

 

So from my previous post i would check that source if it has any bias or agenda as it seems to be using old graphs. Whether thats on purpose or not im unsure.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-andrew-lloyd-webber-says-he-will-open-theatres-on-21-june-even-if-freedom-day-is-delayed-12328180

Good for him. This is exactly the sort of thing that's needed, en masse. Same with football - just open the stadiums and crack on.

 

Attempting to dismiss something because it had been revised is not the point, the point is this is the kickback the current unlocking recieved by the prophets of doom, and is similar to the kickback been seen ahead of June the 21st.

When Johnson released his roadmap this was released at the same time to try and influence his roadmap as being too fast and too dangerous. When that becomes apparent as being incorrect then obvious that provide revisions.

The fact is this is what they were saying would happen if we go ahead with the roadmap in an attempt for Johnson to adjust his roadmap.

So what we see now from people like yourselves is similar doomsday scenarios of what will happen if the roadmap continues. Then we get told to listen to the scientists who are the same people who predicted this doomsday scenario as if they are never wrong.

If we had bowed down to the scientists our line might be the same but they would have been banging on about what would have happened as being gospel, however we know by following the roadmap that scenario was pure fantasy.

I wonder what predictions were made for Texas for the total unlocking and removal of masks, because I bet they are a millions miles from reality.

You see the thing with these doom merchants is they can bang on about another spike being round the corner over and over and if one eventually happens they will say I told you so, if there isn't one we will probably not hear from them again.

 

All i said was check, could have been a honest mistake. Not trying to dismiss it. Stop putting words in my mouth.

but funnily enough you maybe ignored or missed one of my posts yesterday. If it is all just doom mongering, Why cant i right now fly to the US? Yet as of yesterday 61 other countries can. Maybe the US are doom mongers regarding the delta variant.

 

On the USA website the UK are on level 3. Which is basically the same as our Amber list which is what we have them set at.

Level 4: Very high level of COVID-19
Avoid travel to this destination.
Level 3: High level of COVID-19
Make sure you are fully vaccinated before travel.
Unvaccinated travelers should avoid nonessential travel to this destination.
Level 2: Moderate level of COVID-19
Make sure you are fully vaccinated before travel.
Unvaccinated travelers who are at increased risk for severe illness from COVID-19 should avoid nonessential travel to this destination. If you must travel and have concerns, talk to your doctor.
Level 1: Low level of COVID-19
Make sure you are fully vaccinated before traveling to this destination.

What has your access got to do with the number of cases in Texas following full withdrawal of all restrictions?

 

Of course it was an honest mistake, SAGE hopefully don't put out things which are dishonestly incorrect.

But that doesn't change that it was actually wrong and as you stated "silly of them to say". It being an honest mistake doesn't change that.

 

Isn't it the other way around? I only briefly skimmed the news reports but I thought that it was places that the US allowed its citizens to visit, not places they were welcoming other tourists from?

I thought that most of the 61 you mentioned (such as France, Spain and Italy) were lowered from Level 4 to Level 3 but the UK was at L3 anyway/

 

I think he has been found out as all his arguments are taken to pieces, which isn't difficult when you predict 200k people rocking up at hospital on the same day and he is literally grasping at straws now.

 

Its for incomings and outgoings

“Although the UK is listed as a Level 3 by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), under a presidential decree introduced last March, non-US citizens who have been in the UK in the last 14 days cannot enter the country unless a specific exemption applies.” From the link i posted from the BBC

and yes sure you have @Edin Nowhere my point regarding the incorrect graph was clearly wrong. (sarcasm)

you also ignored my question again. If we are doom mongering as much as you say; why do we need special exemptions to visit the US?

 

I'm not sure it is in and out - the same BBC article you quoted says "Countries such as France, Spain and Italy are now Level 3, which means fully-vaccinated passengers may go to these areas"

I'd need to look more into it - I'm not sure it's a special exemption specifically for the UK but if it is it will be because it's been in place since the start of the pandemic when the UK was worse hit than many other countries and hasn't changed enough to be removed.

 

Lets use some actual figures.

Lets just talk about England seeing as Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland are under different restrictions at various times.

All the data below is taken from the public domain from the government website, so if you don't agree with the figures send your questions there.

There have been 3.95m cases confirmed in England since the start of the pandemic.
401k people have been hopitalised in England since the start of the pandemic.
130k people have Covid listed on their death certificate.

So the hopitalisation rate on that basis is about 10% of all cases end up in hospital.
The death rate on that basis is about 3.3% of all cases.

The number of people who were hospitalised are only broken down as follows.

Age 85+ = 83,471
65-84 = 164,280
18-64 = 142,666
6-17 = 2,876
0-5 = 2,918
Total = 396,211

The total is just short of the 401k due to unknown ages so lets work with what we have.

The deaths per heat map are as follows.



So lets start by saying everyone over 55 is now double jabbed or there abouts, and if they aren't it is by choice.
Anyone under 25 is likely not to have any jabs.
Anyone aged 25 to 55 is likely to have a minimum of one jab.

If we work on the basis that 2 jabs reduces hopitalisations by 95% and one jab reduces hospitalisations by 75% based on the above data we would likely see a hospitalisation rate as followed based on the pandemic running it's course with the current vaccination roll out.

Age 85+ = 83,471 - Adjusted 4,174
65-84 = 164,280 - Adjusted 8,214
18-64 = 142,666 - Adjusted 21,400 (presumed an average of 85% based on this being a top heavy large mixed group)
6-17 = 2,876 - Adjusted 2,876
0-5 = 2,918 - Adjusted 2,918
Total = 396,211 - Adjusted 39,582

So I put it to you, with the current vaccine roll out if the pandemic was run again with these vaccine rates hospitalisations would be 39,582 for 3.95m cases not the 396k they are.

So at what stage would the NHS be overrun going forward if restrictions were lifted with a vaccine program that is improving by the day and is being pushed out to people who have next to no risk?

*The cases figure is actually likely to be understated as not everyone who has had covid will have been tested, some will not even know they have even had it. However if they have to enter hospital they will have been tested, and to be a covid death they will have had to have be a confirmed case so 3.95m is the minimum figure, where as the deaths and hospitalisations are actual figures.