The Voice - Match preview Colchester United vs Bradford City Saturday 16th November 2024 3:00pm

EFL League Two Fixture #16
Saturday 16th November 2024 15:00
Colchester United (21st) vs Bradford City (10th)
JobServe Community Stadium (AKA Colchester Community Stadium)

Record:
Games Won: 11
Games Drawn: 15
Games Lost: 16

Last 5:
18 Apr 2022: Colchester United 3 – 0 Bradford City
16 Aug 2022: Colchester United 1 – 0 Bradford City
04 Mar 2023: Bradford City 2 – 0 Colchester United
12 Aug 2023: Bradford City 2 – 1 Colchester United
13 Jan 2024: Colchester United 1 – 1 Bradford City

Colchester United:
Sat in 21st place and just 2 points off of the relegation zone to non-league oblivion, it’s fair to say this is not where Danny Cowley saw himself when he took the job at Colchester United back in January, when he coincidentally turned down the gig at Bradford City on account of geographical reasons. However, just 8 wins from 40 competitive games tells its own story – and Cowley himself described his side as being in a ‘difficult moment’ in late October following a 2-1 defeat at home to Salford City.

That difficult moment wasn’t purely about results, performances, or conceding soft goals; it was also about injuries to key players, particularly those in the attacking department. That injury ‘crisis’ appears to be easing, however, particularly with the return of highly rated youngster Samson Tovide last weekend. Tovide did not feature in Colchester United’s 3-0 EFL Trophy victory over Arsenal U21’s on Tuesday night but will be expected to appear against Bradford City on Saturday. Tovide provided a late assist to 5-goal top scorer Lyle Taylor on his return to action against Barrow, bagging them their 10th draw of the campaign in all competitions.

To say Tovide is a touting prospect at the JobServe Community Stadium would be an understatement. Describing as a ‘rising star with no limits’, the forward was subject to some ‘really good offers’ in the Summer transfer window, but ultimately stayed put. Michael Flynn, the Cheltenham Town boss, also highlighted Tovide after his side’s 2-1 victory over Colchester United back in October. A hip injury forced Tovide to limp off after 35 minutes, but not before laying off an assist for Lyle Taylor and causing a pair of penalty scares in the Cheltenham area. The 20 year old hasn’t appeared since then (up until his return at Barrow), but Flynn singled out Tovide for special praise when he admitted he was relieved to see him go off and describing him as an ‘outstanding prospect’.

That said, Lyle Taylor (5) is currently the U’s top scorer despite having made just 8 starts this season, with Samson Tovide (3) and defender Ben Goodlifee (3) joint second, and Jack Payne and Owura Edwards the only other players to have scored more than 1 league goal so far.

Forwards Tom Hopper, Anthony Scully, and Bradley Ihionvien have all failed to grab a league goal, though the most-played of these – Hopper – has contributed 2 cup goals, including on Tuesday night’s rout of Arsenal’s academy. Scully, a Portsmouth loanee, has had his own injury issues with a knee problem, and at one point the situation was so bad that 20 year old academy player Oscar Thorn was recalled from a loan at Chelmsford City and has started 2 of 3 league games since.

All of that said, Danny Cowley and his team brought in no fewer than 13 players this summer, including players like John Kymani-Gordon, and more might have been expected than a relegation scrap.

Draws have been the thorn in the side for Colchester United all season. Having caught up to draw specialists Chesterfield with 7 stalemates of their own, Colchester United can lay claim to just two league victories this season. That puts them on par with fellow strugglers Morecambe and Swindon Town, both very much in the mix for relegation, though they have lost just 5 as a consequence of the near-constant draws. Factor in cups, and the number of draws across 90 minutes of football rises to an astonishing 10, and yes, did include an all-too-predictable tie with Chesterfield!

5 of Colchester United’s league draws have come on the road, however, with just 2 at home from a possible 7. That Colchester’s home record is a paltry 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats with 8 goals scored and 6 conceded suggests Cowley’s side are not the most entertaining to watch, but with players like Tovide back, will they now start to possess more of a sparkle?

Barrow 1 – 1 Colchester United


Colchester United 1 – 2 Salford City


Bradford City:
Normally, an Andy Cook-inspired goal is a positive for Bradford City. Not so last weekend when Cook clumsily felled Matty Virtue, with Ronan Coughlan stepping up to convert an 8th minute spot kick that would prove to be the only goal of the game. Irony aside, Andy Cook wasn’t solely to blame, of course, and Graham Alexander received his share of flack after announcing a questionable starting line up that had City fans scratching their heads about the potential formation – and the Telegraph and Argus even published an article bemoaning ‘square pegs in round holes’, no doubt referring to Brad Halliday and Lewis Richards filling in for 2 of the 3 central defensive positions, Bobby Pointon moving to left wing back, and all 3 of Vadaine Oliver, Andy Cook and Calum Kavanagh sharing (realistically) the 2 striker berths available.

Still, Graham Alexander felt his side had the potential to perform better, and made his feelings clear after the game, lambasting a very poor first half – but praising a much-improved second period. That Alexander seemed to concede one of those puzzling selections (3 strikers for 2 out-and-out forward roles) at half time when he brought Vadaine Oliver off for Clark Oduor might be a shred of comfort, but the situation was no doubt one of great frustration for the travelling fans. Olly Sanderson would replace Calum Kavanagh as City took near-full control towards the end, but the all-elusive equalizer never materialized, leaving Alexander and Lucketti with plenty to ponder ahead of this week’s trip to struggling draw specialists Colchester United.

Quite why the Cook-Sanderson partnership (the only strike partnership to bear fruit for both parties in the league this season) was broken up so completely remains a mystery. Kavanagh, Oliver and even Tyler Smith have all failed to make a dent in a single League Two game this season, but continue to be afforded copious opportunities as Alexander appears to play favourites with his non-scoring strikers.

All eyes will be on Graham this weekend, then, to see how he deals with such a glaring and troublesome issue that has contributed to a disappointing campaign overall. While things looked so positive in October after a run of 3 straight wins, 2 of those by a margin of more than 1 goal, it has now been 3 games without a win for City, including a gut-punch of a defeat to promotion rivals Doncaster Rovers at home.

Perhaps most frustrating for Bradford City fans is that the club’s current struggles to score coincide with possession stats of 59-63 % - far higher than, say, the 3-1 win over Newport County (51 %) or the 2-0 away win at Tranmere Rovers (40 %). While the xG has improved considerably (Bradford City now sit 4th in the xG league table), results simply have not followed the upwards trend in generally positive statistics. Graham Alexander and his team will have to figure out exactly why that is, and fast.

Fleetwood Town 1 – 0 Bradford City


Bradford City 1 – 2 Doncaster Rovers

 

Prediction:
On paper, Bradford City are playing as well as they’ve played all season. Football isn’t played on paper, however, and results have actually deteriorated relative to the significant improvements in possession and xG. That suggests that either the Bantams are about to break into their best form of the league campaign so far, or there is something amiss in the team right now that is preventing them from being as clinical as sides like Port Vale, Walsall, Notts County, MK Dons, Chesterfield and Doncaster Rovers, all of whom have outstripped City’s tally of 20 goals so far this season.

Perhaps reminiscent of the Mark Hughes era, it’s sad to see how City – with a whole new formation and an entirely new set of tactics – are so reliant on one single striker. At least under Hughes, the Welsh veteran manager would field only one out-and-out forward perhaps explaining such a heavy reliance on Cook. That’s not the case under Graham Alexander, and players like Calum Kavanagh who has now been awarded no fewer than 10 league starts, must start to respond to the growing concerns about his ongoing ineffectiveness in front of goal. There’s no question Kavanagh can be a good player – City fans saw glimpses of the young striker’s ability last season – but it seems that neither taking him out nor putting him back into the starting line up is making much of a difference. Meanwhile, a striker who has actually scored a pair of league goals despite minimal game time, Olly Sanderson, continues to go unfancied and unpicked in a move that could cause a real rod for Graham’s own back.

As City head to Colchester United knowing they face a side who are very hard to beat, if quite poor in front of goal after a series of injury problems up front under Danny Cowley, Bantams fans will expect a win. The potential return of Samson Tovide could make a huge difference for the U’s. The tricky forward has caused all manner of defences problems, and his partnership with Lyle Taylor has produced results either side of a prolonged injury period for 20 year old Tovide, and with limited game time. The veteran-youth combination smacks of the unused Cook-Sanderson partnership, although there’s no question Tovide has attracted more attention than the Fulham loanee even in his brightest moments.

While not wishing to overstate the potential impact of a single opposition player, this feels like a game where Bradford City could be taught a lesson in what an effective partnership looks like, and how pivotal it can be. With both sides off form, we are left looking for a potential difference maker. It looks like Colchester United might be about to unleash theirs on a ground where the Bantams have struggled in recent years.

The pick will be a 2-0 defeat for City, whereafter an inquisition may be made around City’s struggling striker pairings. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that, and the Bantams pick up a resounding win in Essex this weekend with a few players opening their accounts for the season.

Final Score:
Colchester United 2 – 0 Bradford City