Match Thread #9: Cardiff City vs Bradford City Saturday 20th September 2025 3:00pm

I was thinking it would have been a little higher than that because Sarcevic by himself must have been around 1.5xG with the penalty and missed chance. Looking on the opta stats the Sarcevic chance was put down as 0.609 which is a bit lower than i thought it would be, presume that is down to it being a header rather than a shot with the foot.

Overall for the team we have the top xG with 15.81 so only slightly overachieving with 17 goals. So far we have been very clinical as well with the 4th highest conversion rate at 14.29%.

 

What’s not to like about this lad?

 

Don't agree with the chap he says we have no one who can play at champ level. I'm sure that scouts are watching our every game.

 

My dictionary is a bit tattered now. Can someone tell me what that actually means

 

It means we were eXpected to score 1.83 Goals in the first half.

It's all some algorithmic bollax that drives data driven coaches to cream themselves.

 

It's data that gives you loads of information about how clinical individual players are, how clinical teams are and how dominant teams are in terms of their goal threat. Its used by top PL sides to recruit and by bookmakers to forecast their season projections. It's incredibly accurate in predicting where teams will finish after the first quarter of fixtures but of course to those who know what they're talking about it's a lot of bollocks.

 

Agree totally, it’s that sort of stuff, misused by some coaches , who end up coaching the life out of players ….Grant perhaps?
Possession means nothing if one can’t put the ball in the net. Interestingly…….


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cvg00wx7j42o

 

Exactly. We're second bottom in the league in terms of possession but first in terms of goals scored.

 

Thanks. Do people actually get paid for thinking up these things?

 

Coaches have managed to determine players strengths and weaknesses for over a century without this crap.. if it's that good at gauging dominance or predicting outcomes how is it that folks aren't winning loads of dosh on large Accas.
Ask the best A.I. for predictions and most of the time it's way off. I know, I've tried it by feeding it stats and XG etc.. but it's shit. I do better with my own old fashioned analysis. Still lose more than win though.

 

Who said possession means you deserve to win? I think our possession stats are very interesting. It says a lot about how we set up and how we have managed to be so successful.

 

We are looking clinical.

 

It's an interesting statistic. I don't know why people get so upset about xg. It's not pretending to be anything a guarantee of anything other than an indication.

 

We know we are because we watch the team every week. Xg is helpful for everyone else to know about it.

 

Modified that for you....

 

So you agree it's bollax then?

 

I'm interested in seeing how clinical other sides are and how effective individual strikers are. If you like football and follow it then it'd be weird to not be interested in that kind of detail.

 

The comment was really about its misuse by coaches and its perception of “outcomes” by supporters.

 

It's proven season after season to forecast whether a team will finish higher or lower than their current placing. At the moment Bolton, Port Vale and Luton are top 3 for xg. On that basis, let's see where those 3 teams are at Xmas. I can be certain that they'll all be better placed than they are now. Similarly, Lincoln in 3rd are near the bottom for xg. They'll be considerably lower by Xmas.

 

I'm guessing it highly rated Huddersfield's attack and Cardiff's too.. didn't work out there though.
Watching video and sending out scouts is a better way IMO for management to decide tactics and team selection.
I guess it cool for some but it's not for me.