The Voice - Match preview #28: AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford City Saturday 1st February 2025 3:00pm

EFL League Two Fixture #28
Saturday 1st February 2025 15:00
AFC Wimbledon (6th) vs Bradford City (4th)
Cherry Red Records Stadium (AKA Plough Lane)

Record:
Games Won: 6
Games Drawn: 5
Games Lost: 5

Last 5:
24 Sep 2022: Bradford City 2 – 2 AFC Wimbledon
14 Jan 2023: AFC Wimbledon 0 – 0 Bradford City
14 Oct 2023: AFC Wimbledon 0 – 1 Bradford City
03 Feb 2024: Bradford City 0 – 0 AFC Wimbledon
21 Sep 2024: Bradford City 0 – 0 AFC Wimbledon

AFC Wimbledon:
AFC Wimbledon are having a highly successful campaign. Sat in 6th place, but with a game or two in hand over all of their promotion rivals, Johnnie Jackson’s men are well-positioned for a serious and sustained assault on the automatic promotion spots. Key to the Dons’ success, much like Bradford City, is their home form. 3rd in the ‘Home’ league table, AFC Wimbledon also have a game in hand over the two sides sat above them – but even with a win, they would be unable to catch either Walsall or Bradford City.

It might be surprising, then, to note that AFC Wimbledon had a run of 6 straight games across league and cup combined without picking a single win. That period, stretching from late October to early December, saw AFC Wimbledon lose in the EFL Trophy, exit the FA Cup (losing at home to Dagenham and Redbridge), and pick up just 2 points from 4 league games. Unfortunately for City, perhaps, that period is now behind them, with AFC Wimbledon unbeaten at the Cherry Red Records Stadium for 5 straight games. Picking up 11 points from a potential 15, Johnnie Jackson’s side has not only steadied the ship in terms of home results, but re-established Plough Lane as one of the division’s most formidable fortresses.

Away from home, AFC Wimbledon haven’t had quite the same success but are nonetheless undefeated across their last 3 away days. A win at Newport County was followed by draws at MK Dons and Crewe Alexandra, both sides who may yet factor in the promotion race. Now, they welcome Bradford City this Saturday.

Key to AFC Wimbledon’s hopes and successes has been Matty Stevens, a Summer signing from relegated Forest Green Rovers. The forward, who scored 11 goals last season despite FGR’s fall to non-league, has already netted 17 goals across all competitions, though it should be noted only 1 of those goals came against top 7 opposition! That goal, against Doncaster Rovers in December, stands in stark contrast to a full eight goals against bottom 5 opposition!

Stevens isn’t alone, however. While AFC Wimbledon have been able to kill off poor opposition in routine fashion, goals against top 7 competition have been much harder to come by for the team as a whole. 4 goals in 6 outings against those currently occupying the promotion spots have accounted for 5 points in total, with 1 win (Doncaster), 2 draws (Bradford & Crewe), and 3 defeats (Walsall, Notts County & Port Vale): a mediocre record against the better outfits, then.

Josh Neufille (4), Omar Bugiel (3) and James Tilley (3) are the only other players to have scored more than 2 goals this season, and together with Stevens (13) account for more than 60 % of AFC Wimbledon’s goals (38) in the league this campaign. In other words, keep Stevens quiet – as most of the better sides have been able to do this campaign – and there’s every chance of at least a point.

Getting a goal at the other end, thought, is a much tougher prospect. Having conceded just 20 goals in 26 outings, AFC Wimbledon boast the meanest defence in League Two. The next tightest defences (Crewe Alexandra and Salford City) have shipped a full 4 more! Getting past this lot will not be easy…

MK Dons 0 – 0 AFC Wimbledon


Crewe Alexandra 1 – 1 AFC Wimbledon


Bradford City:
As was outlined in the previous article, getting a win over bottom-side Morecambe on Tuesday night was every bit as important as brushing aside league leaders Walsall 3-0 at Valley Parade last weekend. That message obviously translated brilliantly from manage Graham Alexander as the Bantams gave away absolutely nothing to their West coast rivals, who were largely limited to one quality header from Hallam Hope that Sam Walker saved superbly. With that Walsall victory bookended by workmanlike 1-0 wins over struggling opposition in the Shrimpers and Carlisle United, there is every cause for optimism.

Grafting to victories like the one on Tuesday night might not bring the same plaudits or conjure as many highlights as the free-flowing and highly-entertaining game against Walsall, but it does count for just as many points – and, crucially, maintain City’s current phenomenal momentum. With just 1 defeat in their last 13 games in all competitions and with 5 straight wins, Graham Alexander’s men are on the march, with the rewards visibly imprinted on the league table. Now sat in 4th place, the Bantams are breathing down the necks of the current top 3, and though Walsall may still sit in a comfortable position despite a follow-up defeat at Fleetwood Town, no other side has been able to match City in the ‘Form’ league table.

There remains a slight concern about City’s abilities on the road, however. A string of 6 home games from their last 9 league meetings has painted a very, very glossy picture; but while all 6 home games resulted in victory, City picked up only 4 points from a possible 9 on the road. Having been thumped by Notts County 3-0, City then dropped a couple of points in a drab affair at Barrow, before finally seeing off Carlisle United 1-0. While it’s almost certain nobody would complain if they were able to graft Bradford City’s form on to their own sets of results, the point remains: there has been a dichotomy in terms of performances and results at Valley Parade compared to elsewhere.

Should that temper optimism ahead of this Saturday’s tie at AFC Wimbledon? Perhaps a little… but City’s overall form remains a comprehensive and convincing selling point, and having averaged 2 goals a game in every league game since Christmas, few will be ready to pump the brakes just yet. An influx of new faces has augmented the squad, although most of those players are being slowly blooded in, while Kavanagh has quietly notched 2 goals in his last 3 appearances as a sole striker, single-handedly bagging 6 pivotal points in the process.

Bradford City 1 – 0 Morecambe


Bradford City 3 – 0 Walsall


Prediction:
With only 1 goal in the last 4 meetings between Bradford City and AFC Wimbledon combined, recent history suggests we might be in for a low-scoring affair. AFC Wimbledon’s form suggests a low-scoring draw is a fairly likely outcome, while Bradford City’s away record hints at the potential for something slightly less impressive than their bombastic home performances. A draw, then?

Don’t tell that to Alex Pattison and Antoni Sarcevic, City’s now-injury free midfield pairing who have been on scintillating form in recent weeks. The pair will likely relish the challenge of facing down the division’s tightest backline, with the midfield trio of Jake Reeves (ex-City), Josh Neufville and Lincoln City loanee Alistair Smith performing manfully themselves. Neufville, the club’s second highest goalscorer in terms of league football, hammered in an outstanding leveller in the 1-1 draw at Crewe Alexandra to show it’s not all about Matty Stevens, while James Tilley, the club’s leading assister, is himself a credible threat going forward.

Whichever midfield can take the game by the scruff of the neck and start carving out opportunities will be in the ascendency here. But with AFC Wimbledon typically not conceding too many chances at the Cherry Red Records Stadium, whatever Bradford City do create in the nation’s capital will need to be converted to maximise the chances of avoiding what seems a likely stalemate.

Despite the calibre of attacking players on display, though, the pick will be a point each and honours shared. Matty Stevens’ poor record against the better sides aside, AFC Wimbledon still have enough fire power to cancel out the odd goal, which I suspect Bradford City remain capable of despite a mediocre overall away record. 1-1. Any more than that, though, and it might just be time to start getting carried away… (for both sides, I suspect)

Final Score:
AFC Wimbledon 1 – 1 Bradford City