DR Congo
Uzbekistan
Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta hosts the battle for third in Group K, with both DR Congo and Uzbekistan still chasing their first ever World Cup win. DR Congo need a victory to reach the knockouts for the first time, while Uzbekistan, with the competition's second-worst goal difference at minus seven, need a big win and plenty of help elsewhere just to keep their tournament alive.
DR Congo — The Leopards
Sebastien Desabre's side have never lost by more than a single goal at this tournament, but a narrow defeat to Colombia leaves them needing maximum points here regardless. The lineup pencilled in here keeps the back three that's started every game so far, Axel Tuanzebe, Chancel Mbemba and Steve Kapuadi, rather than switching to a flatter back four as some reports suggested, with Arthur Masuaku and Aaron Wan-Bissaka again pushed up as wing-backs.
Edo Kayembe continues as the advanced midfielder behind Cedric Bakambu and Yoane Wissa, the latter still the only Congolese player to have scored at a World Cup. DR Congo have looked more comfortable without the ball than with it so far, and Desabre will need his side to find a different gear here if they're to end a four-match winless run across all competitions in the manner the situation demands.
Uzbekistan — The White Wolves
Fabio Cannavaro's side have lost both games so far, including a heavy 5-0 defeat to Portugal, and the lineup pencilled in here sticks with the back five that's started throughout: Sherzod Nasrullaev, Rustam Ashurmatov, Abdukodir Khusanov, Abdulla Abdullaev and Khojiakbar Alijonov, with Abbosbek Fayzullaev, Oston Urunov, Otabek Shukurov and Jamshid Iskanderov across midfield. Ashurmatov's involvement against Portugal after a doubtful start to the tournament suggests Cannavaro has a fully fit squad to choose from here.
Captain Eldor Shomurodov, a 44-goal forward for his country, continues to lead the line but is yet to add to that tally at this World Cup, while Fayzullaev remains Uzbekistan's only goalscorer at the tournament so far. With just two goals scored across 360 minutes, the pressure is on the front line to finally deliver at the first attempt that matters most.
Predicted Lineups
Group K Permutations
Colombia and Portugal occupy the top two spots in 99.8% of Opta's simulations, leaving DR Congo and Uzbekistan fighting for scraps. Almost any win for DR Congo should be enough to see them through, even in third, given how far back both Colombia and Portugal are unlikely to fall. A draw is unlikely to be sufficient. Uzbekistan have to win, and even then have only a modest chance of going through given their goal difference; they're given a 30.8% likelihood of finishing third in the group, which is a different question from actually progressing from there.
Key Battle
Yoane Wissa vs Uzbekistan's back five. Wissa remains DR Congo's only source of a World Cup goal, and breaking down a five-man defence that's nonetheless conceded eight goals in two games is the clearest path to the win they need. If he and Bakambu can combine early, the rest should follow.
Prediction
Both sides need a win badly, which should make for a more open contest than either has produced so far. DR Congo's extra steel at the back and the proven goal threat of Wissa should be enough to get over the line in what would be a first-ever World Cup win for the Leopards.
DR Congo 2–0 Uzbekistan — Wissa, Bakambu
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