Colombia
Portugal
Group K's top two meet at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens with first place on the line. Colombia, already through with six points from two games, need only a point to top the group. Portugal, four points back after their own two wins, have to beat Colombia outright to leapfrog them. It will be the first ever competitive meeting between the two nations.
Colombia — Los Cafeteros
Nestor Lorenzo could field an unchanged side from the win over DR Congo, and the lineup pencilled in here reflects that: Camilo Vargas in goal, Daniel Munoz, Davinson Sanchez, Jhon Lucumi and Johan Mojica across the back, with Jefferson Lerma, James Rodriguez, Gustavo Puerta and Jhon Arias in midfield. Luis Suarez was forced off against DR Congo with a shoulder issue but is expected to be fit enough to continue leading the line alongside Luis Diaz.
Colombia have reached the last 32 already and need only a point here to finish top of the group outright, which would set up a meeting with a third-placed side from Group D, E, I, J or L. Munoz's matchwinner against DR Congo was his side's only goal in over 150 minutes of football, so there's room for the front two to find a sharper edge here too.
Portugal — Selecao das Quinas
Roberto Martinez's side will be boosted by another start for Cristiano Ronaldo, whose brace against Uzbekistan eased the pressure that built after a quiet display against DR Congo and moved him to 975 career goals. The lineup pencilled in here continues with Joao Cancelo at right-back, Ruben Dias, Renato Veiga and Nuno Mendes completing the back four, and Joao Neves, Bruno Fernandes and Vitinha controlling midfield.
Joao Felix retains his spot in the front three alongside Pedro Neto and Ronaldo, with Bernardo Silva and Rafael Leao both pushing for inclusion without quite forcing their way in. Tomas Araujo remains a doubt after his injury in the opener, though that has no bearing on the back four ahead of him. A draw or even a defeat could still be enough for Portugal to finish second, depending on how DR Congo fare against Uzbekistan, but a win is the only result that guarantees top spot.
Predicted Lineups
Group K Permutations
Colombia and Portugal take the top two spots in 99.8% of Opta's simulations between them. Colombia top the group with a draw or win; only a Portugal win changes that picture. Portugal currently hold a six-goal advantage over DR Congo in the race for second, so even defeat here likely isn't fatal to their chances of finishing in the top two, unless it's a heavy one paired with a big DR Congo win elsewhere. DR Congo qualify with almost any win of their own, while Uzbekistan have a 30.8% chance of finishing third but a much smaller one of actually progressing from there.
Key Battle
Luis Diaz vs Portugal's full-backs. Diaz cutting in from the left has been Colombia's most reliable source of danger all tournament. If Cancelo and Mendes are pulled out of position trying to contain him, the space it opens centrally could be exactly what Portugal's defence can't afford to give up in a game this important.
Prediction
Both sides have the quality to make this an entertaining, open contest, especially with Portugal needing to take the game to Colombia rather than settle for a point. Colombia's settled system and the form of Diaz should be enough to avoid defeat, but a draw that suits both feels the most likely outcome.
Colombia 1–1 Portugal — Diaz — Ronaldo
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