France
England
Third-Place Play-off · Saturday 18 July, 22:00 BST · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Third place, the prize neither dressing room actually wanted before Tuesday and Wednesday night put them here. France's own final hopes were smothered 2-0 by Spain, with Kylian Mbappe and the rest of the front four managing a miserable 0.31 expected goals between them, while England's lead through Anthony Gordon unraveled as Lionel Messi teed up Enzo Fernandez and Lautaro Martinez in a 2-1 defeat to Argentina. Thomas Tuchel didn't pretend otherwise afterward, saying plainly that none of his players or France's wanted this fixture. Didier Deschamps, taking charge for a 187th and final time as France boss with more wins than any manager in the country's history, will at least be trying to find something to play for. Kickoff is at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
France — Les Bleus
The predicted XI has Mike Maignan in goal behind a back four of Lucas Hernandez, Ibrahima Konate, Maxence Lacroix and Malo Gusto, with N'Golo Kante and Warren Zaire-Emery holding, and Maghnes Akliouche, Rayan Cherki and Marcus Thuram in behind Kylian Mbappe in a 4-2-3-1. It's a heavily changed side built around two enforced absences: William Saliba was withdrawn early against Spain with a recurrence of his back trouble and takes no part here, and back-up keeper Brice Samba is also out with a calf problem, though that one barely affects the XI itself since Maignan was always going to start. Other reports still have Jules Kounde and Theo Hernandez in the back four rather than Lucas Hernandez and Gusto, so the exact makeup there is genuinely up in the air.
Mbappe has every reason to still care about this one even with the trophy gone: he and Messi go into the weekend level on eight goals in the race for the Golden Boot, and a big night in Miami is his last chance to pull clear of it. He's also up to 20 goals across his World Cup career, second only to Messi's 21 all time, though that particular record is unlikely to fall this summer. France are playing in the third-place match for a fourth time, and the previous three produced at least five goals apiece: a 6-3 win over West Germany in 1958, defeat to Poland in 1982, and victory over Belgium in 1986. It's also their first appearance in this fixture since that 1986 win.
England — the Three Lions
The predicted XI has Dean Henderson in goal behind a back four of Nico O'Reilly, John Stones, Ezri Konsa and Jarell Quansah, with Jude Bellingham, Kobbie Mainoo and Eberechi Eze across midfield, and Marcus Rashford, Harry Kane and Noni Madueke across the front in a 4-3-3. Mainoo's spot is the one worth watching: he's fallen so far out of favour under Tuchel that it wouldn't be a total shock to see almost anyone else try their hand in there instead, up to and including the injured Jordan Henderson or even goalkeeper Dean Henderson pulling on a pair of outfield boots. That's a far heavier turnover than other outlets are predicting, who mostly have Tuchel naming something close to his strongest available XI with Jordan Pickford in goal and Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson screening the back four, so it's genuinely worth checking closer to kickoff whether Tuchel goes this light or tries to salvage some pride instead. Reece James is out again with a muscular problem picked up against Argentina, and Jordan Henderson remains sidelined with his wrist injury, while Quansah returns having served his two-match ban. There's also a disciplinary cloud hanging over Bellingham, who was filmed catching Valentin Barco round the head during Argentina's celebrations, so his involvement here isn't entirely guaranteed either.
Kane sits on 14 World Cup goals, level with Gerd Muller for fifth on the all-time list, and one more would draw him level with Ronaldo Nazario on 15. Given his age, this could realistically be his last World Cup appearance, so there's extra incentive to mark it. England have lost both of their previous third-place play-offs, 2-1 to Italy in 1990 and 2-0 to Belgium in 2018, with only Uruguay losing more of these matches. Their head-to-head record against France isn't much comfort either: just one win in the last nine meetings, and winless in four competitive games since 1982.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Kylian Mbappe vs John Stones. Stones is one of four changed faces in an England back line that's had barely any time together, and he's the one most likely to find himself isolated against Mbappe in transition. Get tight early and force him wide, and England have a chance of keeping this respectable; give him the half-yard he needs to run in behind, and it could be a long night for a defense that's never played as a unit before.
Prediction
The Opta supercomputer gives France a 50.7% chance of winning in 90 minutes, the largest single outcome of any match previewed this tournament, with England at 25.6% and a draw on 23.7%. France have the extra rest day, a settled goalkeeper and captain, and a forward in Mbappe with a genuine personal reason to perform, while England's much-changed XI, built around a back-up keeper and a patched-together back four, points to a difficult night regardless of how much effort goes in. Mbappe should have the game to add to his Golden Boot tally, and with Cherki given license to create in behind him, France's extra continuity should tell. Kane chasing his own piece of history feels like England's best route to any reply at all.
France 3-1 England — Mbappe (2), Cherki; Kane
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